sharpside
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Traders/Unranked

stephansmith2004

0x5c1…4b4f
Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$161vol $827k
PnL 30d−$788gains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d+$28win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate59.1%adj 56.3% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$8,433cash n/a
Positions27 / 71open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age6molast trade 19d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$428below peak −$3,723Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

30/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale32
Adjusted win rateraw 59.1% · shrunk toward 50%41
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable62
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d37
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%? · Yesclosed+$426Will Darline Graham Nordone win the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff by less than 5%? · Yesclosed+$343Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 20% and 40%? · Yesclosed+$241Will the Democratic Party win the MO-05 House seat? · Yesopen+$87Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%? · Yesclosed+$82

Worst markets

Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yesopen−$837Will Ritesh Tandon advance from the CA-17 primary? · Noclosed−$426Will Darline Graham Nordone win the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff by 5–10%? · Yesclosed−$345Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? · Yesclosed−$170Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 35–40%? · Yesclosed−$105

Open positions · 27

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes796k1¢0.9¢$6,769−$838+$0.66
Will the Republican Party win the MN-06 House seat?Yes18880¢95.5¢$179+$29$0
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes20069¢89¢$178+$40$0
Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes1,25113.6¢14.1¢$176+$6.23$0
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-09 House seat?Yes46829.9¢29.5¢$138−$2.09$0
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No18075.4¢72.5¢$131−$5.30$0
Will the New Mexico 2026 Senate race be within 1%?No12589.7¢96.7¢$121+$8.75$0
Will the New Hampshire 2026 Senate race be within 1%?No13080.5¢90¢$117+$12$0
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-05 House seat?Yes11118¢96.4¢$107+$87$0
Will the North Carolina 2026 Senate race be within 1%?No11090¢96¢$106+$6.54$0
Will the Republican Party win the FL-04 House seat?Yes12375.8¢85.5¢$105+$12+$11
Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes79011.9¢11.3¢$89−$4.95−$0.10
Will the Republican Party win the VA-01 House seat?Yes13145.8¢45.5¢$60−$0.34$0
Will the Democratic Party win the NE-02 House seat?Yes6478¢93¢$60+$9.62$0
Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?No3386¢77.5¢$26−$2.80$0
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-08 House seat?Yes3459¢72.5¢$25+$4.58$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 5%-10%?Yes6119¢28.5¢$17+$5.76$0
Will the Republican Party hold between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes1109.9¢10.8¢$12+$0.99$0
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?Yes10015¢7.3¢$7.30−$7.70$0
Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 208+ House seats after the 2026 midterms?Yes13710.1¢4.9¢$6.71−$7.15$0
Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 208–222 House seats after the 2026 midterms?Yes2710.4¢12.3¢$3.34+$0.50$0
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No534¢27.5¢$1.38−$0.33$0
Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?Yes9710.3¢0¢$0−$10.00−$0.36
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 30% or more?No834.8¢0¢$0−$4.00−$0.15
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%?Yes7439.9¢0¢$0−$30−$0.71
Will Nigel Farage win 50–60% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Yes613.3¢0¢$0−$2.00−$0.08
Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 15–20%?Yes328.3¢0¢$0−$2.63−$0.15

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?69¢200$13859%30
BUY YesWill the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?12.6¢100$1359%30
BUY YesWill the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?12.3¢51$6.3359%30
BUY YesWill the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?11.8¢15$1.7959%30
BUY YesWill the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?12.5¢74$9.2659%30
BUY YesWill the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?13.8¢30$4.1459%30
BUY NoWill the New Hampshire 2026 Senate race be within 1%?81¢70$5759%30
BUY NoWill the North Carolina 2026 Senate race be within 1%?90¢100$9059%30
BUY YesWill the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?12.1¢117$1459%30
BUY YesWill the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?12¢14$1.7359%30
BUY YesWill the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?11.8¢38$4.4659%30
SELL YesWill Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 35–40%?0.2¢71$0.1459%30
BUY YesWill Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 25–30%?69¢15$1159%30
BUY NoWill Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 30–35%?35¢31$1159%30
BUY YesWill Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 35–40%?30¢50$1559%30
BUY YesWill Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 30–35%?40¢0$0.1659%30
BUY YesWill Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 35–40%?25¢15$3.8259%30
BUY YesWill Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 35–40%?18¢27$4.8659%30
BUY YesWill Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 35–40%?17.5¢57$1059%30
SELL YesWill Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 15–20%?5¢50$2.5059%30