sharpside
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Traders/Rank #3,535

LetMeBeYourValentine

0x5ca…6149
SharpWR 80+WR 70+WR 60+1y+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$6,162vol $334k
PnL 30d+$1,503gains $1,762 · losses $142
PnL 7d−$84win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate80.2%adj 77.4% · 30d 91.7%
Open value$17.3kcash n/a
Positions42 / 234open / all-time
Max drawdown−39.7%of equity peak
Account age1.3ylast trade 16h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$6,961below peak −$152Oct 11

SharpScore inputs

73/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale54
Adjusted win rateraw 80.2% · shrunk toward 50%94
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable79
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d98
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity60

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 42

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?No4,37279.7¢97.3¢$4,254+$770$0
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?No4,18872¢89.5¢$3,749+$732$0
Russia lifts diesel export ban by October 15?Yes2,70393.3¢91¢$2,460−$62$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No1,24577.8¢83.5¢$1,039+$71$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes1,10079.1¢86¢$945+$75$0
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Yes1,00546.2¢82.5¢$829+$365$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?No80090.2¢95.6¢$765+$43$0
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?No3,08663.8¢21¢$648−$1,322$0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo60091.8¢91.5¢$549−$2.00$0
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?No31080¢84¢$260+$12$0
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by October 31?No37564.9¢62.5¢$234−$8.87$0
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?Yes44048.9¢46.5¢$205−$11+$42
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15?No20097.6¢97.9¢$196+$0.40$0
Ukraine strikes another tanker in the Caspian Sea by September 30, 2026?No19986.8¢98.2¢$195+$23$0
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No20084¢83.5¢$167−$1.00$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?No15079.3¢88.5¢$133+$14$0
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?No12648¢89.5¢$113+$52$0
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?No10082¢91.5¢$92+$9.50+$137
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No10088¢90.5¢$91+$2.50$0
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?No10047¢86.5¢$87+$40$0
Russia lifts diesel export ban by October 30?Yes8192¢94.2¢$76+$1.78$0
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes10065¢61.5¢$62−$3.50$0
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.2m barrels per day in 2026?No10559.1¢46¢$48−$14$0
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026?No3168¢73.5¢$23+$1.73$0
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Yes5071¢34¢$17−$19$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?No1091¢96.5¢$9.64+$0.55$0
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?No1550¢61.5¢$9.07+$1.70$0
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31?No309¢17.5¢$5.25+$2.55$0
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.5m barrels per day in 2026?No588¢88.4¢$4.01+$0.02+$2.22
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31, 2026?No486¢92.5¢$3.54+$0.25+$0.55
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?Yes2,80040.2¢0¢$0−$1,127$0
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?Yes2,8004.5¢0¢$0−$127−$0.71
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?No2,50090.2¢0¢$0−$2,255−$0.77
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?No39258.1¢0¢$0−$228−$397
Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?No23544.6¢0¢$0−$105$0
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?No20068¢0¢$0−$136$0
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1m barrels per day in 2026?No19412.5¢0¢$0−$24$0
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.1m barrels per day in 2026?No10024¢0¢$0−$24$0
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes6018.9¢0¢$0−$11$0
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes503.1¢0¢$0−$1.55$0
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by October 31?No5050¢0¢$0−$25$0
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?No1122.2¢0¢$0−$2.53+$95

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesRussia lifts diesel export ban by October 15?95¢2,000$1,90080%73Sharp
BUY YesRussia lifts diesel export ban by October 15?88¢25$2280%73Sharp
BUY YesRussia lifts diesel export ban by October 15?87¢10$8.7080%73Sharp
BUY YesUS imports Russian diesel by October 31?60¢40$2480%73Sharp
BUY NoWill Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by October 31?68¢100$6880%73Sharp
SELL No0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?1¢500$5.0080%73Sharp
SELL No0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?2¢50$1.0080%73Sharp
BUY No0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?99.3¢5$5.1280%73Sharp
BUY No0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?99.3¢399$39680%73Sharp
SELL No0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?3¢8$0.2580%73Sharp
BUY YesWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?2.8¢654$1880%73Sharp
BUY YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?82¢11$9.0980%73Sharp
BUY NoWill Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by October 31?57¢50$2980%73Sharp
BUY YesWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?71¢50$3680%73Sharp
BUY NoWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?95¢50$4880%73Sharp
BUY No0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?74¢20$1580%73Sharp
SELL YesWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?6¢303$1880%73Sharp
BUY NoWill Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?75¢1,000$75080%73Sharp
BUY No0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?63¢72$4580%73Sharp
BUY NoWill Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?74¢90$6780%73Sharp