sharpside
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Traders/Rank #2,107

Cungly

0x5cc…79d7
PnL 10k+WR 60+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$39.8kvol $19.5M
PnL 30d−$2,089gains $9,607 · losses $15.6k
PnL 7d−$1,362win rate 7d 55.9%
Win rate63.2%adj 62.7% · 30d 59.5%
Open value$28.2kcash n/a
Positions37 / 1,382open / all-time
Max drawdown−51.6%of equity peak
Account age9molast trade 10h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$43.6kbelow peak −$44.6kOct 10

SharpScore inputs

64/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale66
Adjusted win rateraw 63.2% · shrunk toward 50%57
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity48

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 37

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?Yes7,25798.9¢100¢$7,254+$73$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes5,72175¢75.5¢$4,319+$29−$345
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes5,00052¢61.5¢$3,075+$475$0
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No2,00092¢90.5¢$1,810−$30$0
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes2,00093¢90.5¢$1,810−$50$0
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes2,00036.2¢51.4¢$1,027+$303$0
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes1,03992.7¢95.6¢$992+$30$0
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes1,00069¢70.5¢$705+$15+$10.00
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Yes4,51516¢14.5¢$655−$68−$82
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Yes8,63016.8¢7.5¢$647−$806+$72
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?No69587.2¢92.5¢$643+$37$0
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes1,00062¢62.5¢$625+$5.00$0
Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes5,00011¢11.5¢$575+$25+$3.00
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Yes3,25020.8¢16.5¢$536−$141+$394
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Yes1,00047.7¢47.1¢$471−$6.00$0
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Yes8,3868.8¢5.5¢$461−$280−$75
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?No4,52210.7¢8.5¢$384−$98−$115
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?No5,9037.8¢5.4¢$316−$145+$394
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Yes4,0009¢7.5¢$300−$60$0
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes69339¢41.5¢$288+$17$0
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?No47539¢41.5¢$197+$12$0
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes75527¢22.5¢$170−$34+$885
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Yes1,30538¢11¢$144−$352+$52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Yes10.4k4.8¢1.3¢$130−$370−$90
Republican Senate odds dip to 30% by October 31?Yes30050¢43¢$129−$21$0
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?Yes20086.3¢61.7¢$123−$49$0
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?Yes5,0002.5¢2.4¢$118−$7.50$0
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?Yes70013.3¢13.5¢$94+$1.50$0
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?Yes97124¢6.5¢$63−$170$0
Iran Nuke before 2027?No6194.8¢96.3¢$59+$0.91$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No4979¢84.5¢$41+$2.69$0
Will Trump pardon anyone by December 31?Yes3077¢75.5¢$23−$0.45$0
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Yes6,0000.8¢0.4¢$21−$27$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No2675¢67.5¢$18−$1.95$0
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Yes20521¢6.5¢$13−$30$0
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in November?Yes494.9¢5¢$2.43+$0.05$0
Will Igor Kršiak win the 2026 Nitra mayoral election?No150¢66.5¢$0.67+$0.17$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?7¢2,000$14063%64
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?75¢4$2.9763%64
SELL NoWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?84¢3,000$2,52063%64
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?75¢5,717$4,28863%64
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?99.1¢182$18063%64
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?98.8¢188$18563%64
BUY NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?10¢395$4063%64
SELL YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?73¢2,462$1,79763%64
BUY NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?8.5¢800$6863%64
BUY YesBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?16¢5,000$80063%64
BUY NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?8¢1,700$13663%64
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?98.8¢82$8163%64
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?98.8¢280$27663%64
BUY NoWill Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?98.9¢5$4.9763%64
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?96.9¢648$62863%64
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?98.3¢464$45663%64
SELL NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?5¢2,000$10063%64
BUY YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?21¢1,001$21063%64
BUY YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?21¢1,000$21063%64
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?56¢15$8.4063%64