sharpside
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Traders/Unranked

dpnd

0x5f2…b376@dpnd_poly
PnL 10k+1y+WeatherOtherPolitics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$28.4kvol $14.7M
PnL 30d+$2,523gains $2,355 · losses $1,186
PnL 7d−$886win rate 7d 42.9%
Win rate20.8%adj 21.9% · 30d 64.7%
Open value$19.8kcash n/a
Positions48 / 37,220open / all-time
Max drawdown−31.5%of equity peak
Account age3.2ylast trade 15h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$30.6kbelow peak −$1,352Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

55/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale64
Adjusted win rateraw 20.8% · shrunk toward 50%0
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d98
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity69

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yesclosed+$6,920Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · Noopen+$960Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026? · Yesopen+$893Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026? · Yesclosed+$404Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026? · Noclosed+$354

Worst markets

Will there be between 5 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30? · Yesclosed−$405Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft? · Yesclosed−$360Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026? · Yesopen−$291Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026? · Noopen−$267Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? · Yesclosed−$204

Open positions · 48

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?No3,37692.7¢92.8¢$3,131+$1.56+$21
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026?No2,44291.4¢97.2¢$2,373+$142$0
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?No2,48252¢80.5¢$1,998+$708+$251
Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?Yes2,14558.4¢86.5¢$1,855+$603+$290
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? No1,82691.8¢94.6¢$1,727+$49+$8.01
AI data center in space by December 31, 2027?No1,60576.9¢74.5¢$1,196−$38+$132
Will more than 575,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?Yes1,09690.5¢97.1¢$1,064+$72+$0.65
Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement by December 31, 2026?No83684.4¢85.5¢$715+$8.85$0
Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?Yes4,13424.9¢15¢$620−$408+$117
Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?No69189.5¢88.2¢$610−$8.74+$5.67
Will more than 600,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?No60687.2¢92¢$557+$29$0
OpenAI acquired before 2027?No46991.3¢97.4¢$457+$28+$5.87
Plague case in US by December 31?No48987.1¢90.5¢$443+$17$0
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 3.00 ft or more by November 30?Yes1,40931.6¢29.5¢$416−$30−$0.26
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027?No1,03248.6¢39.5¢$407−$94+$8.23
Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 6.00 ft or more by November 30?Yes1,23538.8¢30.6¢$377−$102$0
Elon Bull Run ComboNo32789.6¢94.5¢$309+$16$0
Will more than 650,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?No20093.7¢98.5¢$197+$9.53$0
Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft?Yes23374¢77.5¢$181+$8.16$0
Will more than 595,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?No20188.6¢88¢$177−$1.20$0
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30?No20077¢81¢$162+$8.00$0
Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?Yes31038¢47.5¢$147+$29$0
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -3.00 to -1.01 ft by November 30?No14577.7¢81.5¢$118+$5.50+$18
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -3.00 to -1.01 ft by November 30?Yes38213.1¢18.6¢$71+$21$0
Will there be between 5 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?Yes47922¢14¢$67−$38$0
Will the USS George H.W. Bush be in CENTCOM on October 31, 2026?No19339.7¢32.5¢$63−$14$0
Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 4.00 to 4.99 ft by November 30?No9476.6¢64.4¢$61−$11$0
Will more than 625,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?No6090¢98.9¢$59+$5.29$0
Will there be at least 4800 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?Yes21619.2¢24¢$52+$10$0
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Yes35828.9¢12.5¢$45−$59+$8.55
Will there be at least 4900 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?Yes70212¢6¢$42−$42$0
Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft?No2590¢94¢$24+$1.00$0
Will Claude go down 8-10 times in October?No3066¢69¢$21+$0.91$0
Will the EU lift its ban on Russian diesel imports by December 31, 2026?No2082¢93.5¢$19+$2.30$0
Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?Yes20014¢5¢$9.92−$18$0
Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?No6711¢10¢$6.74−$0.67$0
5kt meteor strike in 2026?Yes3041.1¢17.5¢$5.30−$7.16−$26
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?Yes2313¢13.5¢$3.09+$0.11+$96
Will there be between 10 and 15 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?Yes204¢4.9¢$0.98+$0.18$0
Will there be between 15 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?Yes203¢3.2¢$0.63+$0.03$0
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?No80318.5¢0¢$0−$148−$4.84
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?No71336.5¢0¢$0−$260−$6.60
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 23, 2026?Yes6060.8¢0¢$0−$4.85−$0.19
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 27, 2026?No50526.3¢0¢$0−$133−$3.92
Will the Danube River return to normal levels between September 15 and September 30, 2026?Yes39514.5¢0¢$0−$57+$1.60
Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by October 31, 2026?No33837¢0¢$0−$125−$3.15
Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 21-September 27?Yes32227.4¢0¢$0−$88+$2.72
Will there be no Codex weekly usage limit reset in the week of October 5?Yes710¢0¢$0−$0.71$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft?90¢25$2321%55
BUY YesWill the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft?74¢233$17321%55
SELL NoWill the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft?26¢430$11221%55
SELL YesWill the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft?11.6¢1,512$17521%55
SELL YesWill the lowest St. Louis river level be 3.00 ft or more by November 30?30¢23$6.9021%55
BUY NoWill the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30?77¢200$15421%55
SELL NoWill the lowest St. Louis river level be -3.00 to -1.01 ft by November 30?80.9¢150$12121%55
BUY YesWill the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?23.4¢189$4421%55
BUY YesWill the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?19¢1,295$24621%55
BUY YesWill the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 6.00 ft or more by November 30?33.4¢324$10821%55
BUY YesWill the lowest St. Louis river level be -3.00 to -1.01 ft by November 30?13.1¢382$5021%55
BUY YesWill the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?77¢200$15421%55
BUY NoWill more than 595,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?88.6¢201$17821%55
BUY YesWill the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft?60¢400$24021%55
BUY NoWill the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft?63¢500$31521%55
BUY YesWill the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?16.3¢572$9321%55
SELL YesWill the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?26¢342$8921%55
BUY NoWill the USS George H.W. Bush be in CENTCOM on October 31, 2026?39.7¢193$7721%55
BUY YesWill the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 6.00 ft or more by November 30?46.5¢10$4.6421%55
BUY YesWill the lowest St. Louis river level be 3.00 ft or more by November 30?36.2¢405$14721%55