PnL all-time+$850vol $105k
PnL 30d−$0.86gains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d−$2.06win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate75.0%adj 57.1% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$2,012cash n/a
Positions4 / 12open / all-time
Max drawdown−72.3%of equity peak
Account age1.7ylast trade 7mo ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$860below peak −$2,136Oct 15
SharpScore inputs
20/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale42
Adjusted win rateraw 75.0% · shrunk toward 50%43
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable36
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity28
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? · Yesclosed+$4,132Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? · Noclosed+$921Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? · Noopen+$128Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? · Noclosed+$112Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? · Noclosed+$77
Worst markets
Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election? · Yesopen−$2,392Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? · Yesclosed−$2,089Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Noopen−$53FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election? · Noclosed−$25
Open positions · 3
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | No | 1,250 | 89.8¢ | 100¢ | $1,250 | +$128 | $0 | |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | No | 635 | 94.8¢ | 100¢ | $635 | +$33 | $0 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 133 | 88¢ | 95.6¢ | $127 | +$10 | −$63 |
Recent trades
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