sharpside
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Traders/Rank #5,966

nope3050

0x611…cff0
Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$2,276vol $526k
PnL 30d+$3,427gains $6,133 · losses $7,070
PnL 7d+$914win rate 7d 66.7%
Win rate58.0%adj 56.7% · 30d 57.8%
Open value$85.7kcash n/a
Positions33 / 133open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age46dlast trade 17h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$1,010below peak −$808Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

33/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 58.0% · shrunk toward 50%42
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable71
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d98
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Carlos Alcaraz advance to the Quarterfinals in Men's Singles at the 2026 US Open? · Yesclosed+$1,520Israel closes its airspace by September 30? · Yesclosed+$1,155Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026? · Noclosed+$870US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? · Yesclosed+$621US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen · Frances Tiafoeclosed+$580

Worst markets

Israel closes its airspace by September 30? · Noclosed−$2,556Another critical Cloudflare incident by October 31, 2026? · Noclosed−$1,902Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? · Yesclosed−$1,728US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz · Carlos Alcarazclosed−$1,195Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · Yesclosed−$777

Open positions · 33

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No8,91893.9¢94.5¢$8,427+$54$0
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?No7,98892.7¢95.5¢$7,628+$225$0
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes8,07786.8¢89¢$7,189+$178$0
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?No6,48885.8¢91.5¢$5,936+$372+$28
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes6,60083.5¢85.5¢$5,643+$132−$369
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?No5,28486.7¢88¢$4,650+$68$0
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?No4,50086.1¢86.5¢$3,893+$19−$3.91
Iran leadership change by November 30?No3,80094.1¢94.5¢$3,591+$15$0
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31?No3,56485.4¢90¢$3,208+$163+$72
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?No3,00088.6¢92.5¢$2,775+$115+$5.05
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?No3,10077.4¢89¢$2,759+$359$0
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?Yes3,04983¢87.5¢$2,668+$138+$143
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?No2,90075¢81.5¢$2,364+$189$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?No4,00057¢57.5¢$2,300+$22+$80
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?No2,16495¢97.9¢$2,117+$61+$5.81
Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by September 30?No2,09288.6¢97.2¢$2,033+$180+$13
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?No3,06551.8¢62¢$1,901+$311−$38
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Yes2,00082.1¢93.5¢$1,870+$228+$279
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes2,25078.3¢78.5¢$1,766+$3.75−$37
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026?No1,82291.3¢92.8¢$1,690+$27+$4.01
Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?Yes1,50095¢96.2¢$1,442+$17$0
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?No1,50090.4¢93.5¢$1,403+$46+$31
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?No1,50091.5¢93¢$1,395+$23$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes1,50084.8¢86.1¢$1,291+$19+$103
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Yes1,50084¢83.5¢$1,253−$7.50−$70
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?No98093.9¢90.5¢$887−$33−$12
FlyDubai co-pilot transferred to Israel by Oct. 31?No80094¢97.5¢$780+$28+$11
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?No2,00734.3¢36.5¢$733+$44−$57
Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by October 15?No76895.3¢95¢$730−$3.00$0
Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by October 31?No73490.5¢95¢$697+$33$0
Will Yaron Zelekha be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?No40791.8¢98¢$398+$25$0
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?Yes37543.8¢49.5¢$185+$21$0
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?No10073¢73.5¢$73+$0.50$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?79¢750$59358%33
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?78¢1,500$1,17058%33
SELL YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?92¢2,000$1,84058%33
BUY NoWill Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?88¢1,500$1,32058%33
BUY YesWill the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?84¢176$14858%33
BUY YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?87¢30$2658%33
BUY YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?87¢10$8.7058%33
SELL NoIsrael x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by September 30?97.3¢60$5958%33
BUY NoMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?95¢1,000$95058%33
SELL NoIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?36¢989$35658%33
SELL YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?5¢3,500$17558%33
BUY YesWill the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?76.3¢105$8058%33
BUY YesWill the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?80¢391$31358%33
BUY NoWill Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?73¢100$7358%33
BUY YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?10¢2,000$20058%33
SELL NoIsrael x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by September 30?97.5¢34$3358%33
BUY YesWill the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?82¢390$32058%33
BUY YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?83¢2,500$2,07558%33
SELL NoIsrael military action against Greater Beirut by October 31?89¢2,000$1,78158%33
SELL YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?99.2¢3,500$3,47258%33