sharpside
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Traders/Rank #4,819

JsonStatham

0x625…22cf
<30d oldOtherPoliticsSportWeather
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$10.0kvol $1.02M
PnL 30d−$8,564gains $12.0k · losses $13.1k
PnL 7d−$4,684win rate 7d 45.2%
Win rate45.2%adj 45.4% · 30d 45.2%
Open value$2,092cash n/a
Positions241 / 4,908open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age19dlast trade 15s ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$8,498below peak −$8,497Oct 9

SharpScore inputs

30/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 45.2% · shrunk toward 50%13
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Red Bull Win the 2026 Esports Commercial Partner of the Year Award?No30164¢56.5¢$170−$23−$1.32
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?Yes20981¢71.5¢$149−$20−$47
Republican Senate odds hit 45% by October 31?No20082¢69.5¢$139−$25−$24
Will Barcelona finish top 8 in UCL league phase?Yes8083¢71.5¢$57−$9.20$0
Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No8080¢67¢$54−$10−$33
Rain during the Singapore Grand Prix?No7976¢56¢$44−$16−$10
Will Nate Sheppard be the 2026 D1 Rushing Yards Leader?No6078.4¢71.4¢$43−$4.23−$1.40
Will Tomáš Rec be the next Mayor of Liberec?No8077¢45¢$36−$26−$3.78
Will Kraken be first to list tokenized stocks in the US?Yes14541¢21.5¢$31−$28+$1.41
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 19?Yes4093¢72¢$29−$8.40$0
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 25?Yes4084¢71.5¢$29−$5.00−$7.00
Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?No9154¢31.5¢$29−$20−$2.05
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?Yes12034¢23.5¢$28−$13+$0.22
Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026?No5971¢46.5¢$27−$14−$1.14
Will South African inflation be greater than 5.0% in 2026?No8055¢33.1¢$26−$18$0
Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Fire?Yes30017¢8.5¢$26−$26+$11
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?Yes10037¢25.5¢$26−$12+$17
Will Moonshot AI be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Yes16034¢14.5¢$23−$31$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas be between 900,000 and 975,000?No8074¢29¢$23−$36$0
Will brawk have the most kills for NRG at VALORANT Champions 2026?No4084¢57¢$23−$11$0
Will the Florida Panthers record 90+ points?Yes2589¢78¢$20−$2.80−$1.51
Will Nassourdine Imamov fight Sean Strickland next?Yes2688.1¢75.6¢$20−$3.25−$7.35
Will the Calgary Flames record 80+ points?Yes8044¢22.5¢$18−$17$0
Will GPT Sol's output price be at or below $8 in 2026?Yes4072¢43¢$17−$12$0
Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?No4055.2¢41.8¢$17−$5.38−$5.63
Will Jaylen Waddle finish as a top-12 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season?No2091¢82.5¢$17−$1.70$0
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 29?Yes2091¢82¢$16−$1.80$0
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 23?Yes2091¢81.5¢$16−$1.90$0
Will James Cook be the first RB to 1,000 rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?No2090¢81.5¢$16−$1.70$0
Will Liquipedia Win the 2026 Esports Supporting Service of the Year Award?No3068¢54.1¢$16−$4.18−$3.50
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 31?Yes2092¢80.5¢$16−$2.30$0
Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026?No4052¢40¢$16−$4.80$0
Will Prologis (PLD) Q3 core FFO per diluted share be above $1.70?No2092¢78.5¢$16−$2.70−$8.60
Will Connor McDavid win the 2026-27 Hart Memorial Trophy?No2086.9¢77.1¢$15−$1.97$0
Will DeepSeek IPO by December 31, 2027?Yes2085.7¢75.4¢$15−$2.05$0
Will Bryce Young have 3,500+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?Yes2085¢74.5¢$15−$2.10$0
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?No2084¢75.5¢$15−$1.67−$0.02
Will Linus Ullmark record 4+ shutouts?No2092¢68¢$14−$4.80$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MD-07 House election by 60%-65%?No2081¢66.5¢$13−$2.90$0
Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 5-October 11?No2076¢64.5¢$13−$2.30−$1.40
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?No6633¢19.2¢$13−$9.15+$6.85
Will Summit be the most played map at VALORANT Champions 2026?No4062¢31.6¢$13−$12−$5.86
Will OpenAI's frontier output token price be at or above $55 in 2026?Yes4046¢31.5¢$13−$5.80$0
Will Benfica finish 9th-24th in UEL league phase?Yes4046¢31¢$12−$6.00$0
Will the Winnipeg Jets record 100+ points?No2087¢61.5¢$12−$5.10$0
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?No2078.9¢59.6¢$12−$3.86$0
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be less than 150m by October 31?Yes5038¢23.5¢$12−$7.25+$11
Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.2%?No2072¢58.5¢$12−$2.70−$4.21
Manchester City punishment announced by December 18?No2069¢58.5¢$12−$2.10−$21
Canada admitted to the EU before 2029?No1589¢80.5¢$12−$1.23−$1.78
Will Jesper Wallstedt record 4+ shutouts?No2092¢58¢$12−$6.80$0
Will Muse be available on Meta glasses by December 31, 2026?No3451¢34.5¢$12−$5.53+$0.39
Will China’s CPI increase by at least 1.1% over the 12 month period ending in September 2026?Yes4039.1¢28.4¢$11−$4.28$0
Will “A Song To Sing” by Miranda Lambert and Chris Stapleton win Musical Event of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?No2064¢55¢$11−$1.80$0
Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by December 31, 2026?Yes7029¢15.5¢$11−$9.45+$11
Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% before 2027?Yes2071¢54¢$11−$3.40$0
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or above $55 in 2026?Yes3342¢32¢$11−$3.34+$8.57
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in October?No2080¢53¢$11−$5.40$0
Will Amazon’s market capitalization be between $2.50T and $3.00T at the end of 2026?No2062¢51.5¢$10−$2.10$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election by 6%-9%?No2080¢51.5¢$10−$5.70$0
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?Yes5036¢20.5¢$10−$7.75+$12
Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of December 2026?No2062¢50.5¢$10−$2.30$0
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?No2061¢50¢$10−$2.20$0
Will trent have the most kills for G2 Esports at VALORANT Champions 2026?No2077¢49.5¢$9.90−$5.50−$3.23
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.15% in October?No2061¢48.5¢$9.88−$2.55−$3.10
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on October 11?Yes4043¢24.5¢$9.80−$7.40$0
Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?No5031.9¢19.6¢$9.78−$6.17$0
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.10% before 2027?Yes8132¢12¢$9.69−$16+$1.40
Will Auston Matthews record 40+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season?Yes2079¢48¢$9.60−$6.20$0
Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Jun 30?Yes2071¢47.5¢$9.50−$4.70$0
Will Braga finish top 8 in UECL league phase?No2087¢45.5¢$9.10−$8.30$0
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?Yes2053¢45.5¢$9.10−$1.50−$7.99
Will Magomed Ankalaev fight Paulo Costa next?No2075¢45¢$9.00−$6.00$0
Will 5star eSports qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?Yes2070¢44.5¢$8.90−$5.10$0
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 33M tonnes at end of November 2026?No2084¢43.5¢$8.70−$8.10$0
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.20% before 2027?Yes4048¢21.5¢$8.60−$11$0
Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No4454¢19.5¢$8.59−$15−$0.42
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on November 30, 2026?No2066¢42¢$8.40−$4.80−$1.40
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of October 2026?No2055¢41.5¢$8.30−$2.70$0
Will edgeX reach $1.20 before 2027?Yes3938¢21¢$8.26−$6.68−$2.85
Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $40 by June 30, 2027?No4033¢20.5¢$8.25−$5.02+$0.42
Will John Gibson record 4+ shutouts?Yes2079¢39.5¢$7.90−$7.90+$8.12
Will Mark Rutte visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?No1178¢68¢$7.58−$1.11−$0.62
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Massachusetts be between 2,650,000 and 2,800,000?Yes2047¢37¢$7.40−$2.00−$1.40
Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in October?Yes4033.3¢18.2¢$7.26−$6.06+$3.24
Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?Yes4030.1¢17.3¢$6.92−$5.12+$14
Will "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?No2078¢34¢$6.80−$8.80$0
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 32M tonnes at end of December 2026?No2046¢33.5¢$6.70−$2.50+$3.37
Will Christoffer Öqvist be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Sörmland?No2065¢33¢$6.60−$6.40$0
Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?No2048¢32.5¢$6.50−$3.10−$13
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 45 by October 31?Yes2071¢32.5¢$6.50−$7.70$0
Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 3 and 6 hours?Yes2040¢32.5¢$6.50−$1.50$0
Will Cale Makar record 80+ points in the 2026-27 regular season?Yes1164¢56.5¢$6.34−$0.84−$0.61
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0120 by December 31, 2026?Yes4026¢15.5¢$6.20−$4.20$0
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $427,000 and $437,000 on December 31?Yes4029¢15.5¢$6.20−$5.40$0
Will Hungary be promoted to Nations League A in 2026-27?No2188¢28.5¢$6.11−$13−$7.06
Will Bruno Fernandes (Man Utd) record the most assists in the 2026-27 Premier League season?Yes2054¢30.5¢$6.10−$4.70$0
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 31M tonnes at end of November 2026?No4039¢15¢$6.00−$9.60−$1.40
Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?No2072¢30¢$6.00−$8.40−$3.77
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?No2047¢29¢$5.80−$3.60+$0.60

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill SB Energy not IPO before January 2027?54¢80$4345%30
BUY NoWill the median home value in NYC be between $445,000 and $458,000 on December 31?77¢10$7.9745%30
BUY YesWill ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 56.0 and 56.9 in October?8.8¢20$1.7645%30
BUY NoWill ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in October?79¢10$7.9045%30
BUY YesWill Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?82¢120$9845%30
BUY NoSpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by December 31, 2027?57¢40$2345%30
SELL NoWill OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of December 2026?39¢20$7.8045%30
BUY YesWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on October 31?30.9¢20$6.1845%30
BUY NoNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?36¢50$1845%30
SELL YesPredict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?20.1¢1$0.2245%30
BUY NoPredict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?79.9¢38$3045%30
BUY YesWill Ledger announce compensation or reimbursement for affected users by October 16?19¢40$7.6045%30
BUY NoSpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by December 31, 2027?56¢14$7.8445%30
BUY YesWill the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?94¢80$7545%30
BUY NoWill Ofer Winter be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?88¢30$2645%30
BUY NoWill Naftali Bennett be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?83.6¢30$2545%30
BUY YesWill Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?14.4¢50$7.2045%30
BUY NoWill the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-08 House election by 10%-15%?76¢10$7.6045%30
BUY YesGemini 4.0 released by October 23, 2026?82¢50$4145%30
BUY NoUkraine lowers conscription age by December 31, 2026?91¢30$2745%30