sharpside
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Traders/Rank #178

lava-lava

0x629…995a
WhalePnL 1M+PnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+1y+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$1.00Mvol $41.6M
PnL 30d−$109kgains $142k · losses $92.6k
PnL 7d−$166kwin rate 7d 61.1%
Win rate42.9%adj 43.2% · 30d 46.2%
Open value$235kcash n/a
Positions488 / 1,466open / all-time
Max drawdown−21.3%of equity peak
Account age3.5ylast trade 10h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$1.02Mbelow peak −$15.6kOct 9

SharpScore inputs

64/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale86
Adjusted win rateraw 42.9% · shrunk toward 50%8
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity79

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No17.2k57.4¢100¢$17.2k+$7,307−$60
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?No16.7k97.9¢100¢$16.7k+$346+$1,069
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?No14.0k80.4¢100¢$14.0k+$2,747−$0.15
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No19.7k44¢57.5¢$11.3k+$2,657+$3,922
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes26.4k36.6¢41.3¢$10.9k+$1,234+$21
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?Yes9,67680.5¢100¢$9,676+$1,884−$4.35
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes9,33084.4¢100¢$9,330+$1,454+$1,712
Will Marcel Van Hattem win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?No8,69025.2¢100¢$8,690+$6,500−$12
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?No7,59864¢100¢$7,598+$2,736−$20
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?No11.1k59.9¢61.5¢$6,803+$175$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No6,66697.9¢100¢$6,666+$137+$986
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?Yes6,09061.8¢100¢$6,090+$2,328−$20
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?No11.7k30.3¢38.5¢$4,493+$953$0
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Yes11.2k31.7¢40¢$4,488+$937$0
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes5,68573¢73.5¢$4,179+$28$0
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?No3,88846.1¢100¢$3,888+$2,094$0
Will Janaina Riva win the second-most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso Senate election?No3,64231.1¢100¢$3,642+$2,510−$2.01
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?No3,64690¢97.2¢$3,544+$263+$102
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?Yes3,52398.8¢100¢$3,523+$42+$863
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes3,33397.1¢100¢$3,333+$97+$5,331
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 48% and 51% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No3,33396.1¢100¢$3,333+$130$0
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Yes4,81255.4¢62.5¢$3,007+$343$0
Will Roseana Sarney win the most votes in the 2026 Maranhão Senate election?No3,00542¢100¢$3,005+$1,741−$17
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?No6,79332.1¢39.5¢$2,683+$503$0
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Yes3,25362.6¢79.5¢$2,586+$548+$70
Blue tsunami in 2026?Yes5,18650.3¢48¢$2,489−$120$0
Will Marília Arraes win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?No2,41428.5¢100¢$2,414+$1,725−$4.72
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?Yes2,27924.2¢100¢$2,279+$1,727+$46
Will Sanderson win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?No2,22241.5¢100¢$2,222+$1,300$0
Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?No1,98816.5¢99.8¢$1,984+$1,655$0
Will Gustavo Gayer win the second-most votes in the 2026 Goiás Senate election?No1,87145.5¢100¢$1,871+$1,020−$3.55
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes6,84625¢26.5¢$1,814+$105$0
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?No1,77755.9¢100¢$1,777+$784$0
Will Gracinha Caiado win the most votes in the 2026 Goiás Senate election?No1,71823.6¢100¢$1,718+$1,312−$7.05
Will Carlos Jordy win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?No1,66658.3¢100¢$1,666+$694$0
Will Augusto Cury win between 2% and 4% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes1,65788.7¢100¢$1,657+$187−$3.47
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No6,23326.6¢26.5¢$1,652−$9.27$0
Will Renan Santos win between 2% and 4% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes1,59581.2¢100¢$1,595+$299−$7.74
Will Renan Santos win between 4% and 6% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No1,55585.1¢100¢$1,555+$231$0
Will Raquel Lyra win the Pernambuco Governor election?Yes1,47697.9¢100¢$1,476+$30−$11
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 42% and 45% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No1,42860.5¢100¢$1,428+$564$0
Iran nuclear test before 2027?No1,38488.5¢96¢$1,328+$104+$202
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?Yes1,2545.3¢100¢$1,254+$1,188$0
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?No1,23088.8¢100¢$1,230+$138$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 45% and 48% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes1,22196¢100¢$1,221+$49$0
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Bahia?Yes1,11198¢100¢$1,111+$22$0
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?No1,05022.3¢100¢$1,050+$815+$213
Will Hana Ghassan win the Governor of Pará election?No1,01348.5¢100¢$1,013+$522−$1.24
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes4,24631¢21.5¢$913−$403$0
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?No1,00375¢91¢$913+$161$0
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?No95083¢95.5¢$908+$119$0
Will Randolfe win the second-most votes in the 2026 Amapá Senate election?No88156.8¢100¢$881+$380−$5.71
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Yes2,22227¢38.5¢$855+$256$0
Will Delegado André David win the most votes in the 2026 Sergipe Senate election?No82950.4¢100¢$829+$411−$8.13
Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the Governor of Espírito Santo election?Yes88454.9¢89¢$786+$301$0
Blue wave in 2026?Yes93057.9¢84.5¢$786+$247$0
Will Ricardo Ferraço win the Governor of Espírito Santo election?No75134¢89¢$669+$413$0
Will Carlos Jordy win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?Yes65716¢100¢$657+$552−$3.53
Will Julio Cesar win the second-most votes in the 2026 Piauí Senate election?Yes65217.7¢100¢$652+$536−$3.80
Will Alexandre Curi win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?No63258¢100¢$632+$265$0
Will Eduardo Braide win the Governor of Maranhão election?Yes59374¢100¢$593+$154−$213
Will Tomáš Portlík be the next Mayor of Prague?Yes1,29944¢45.5¢$591+$20$0
Will Orleans Brandão win the Governor of Maranhão election?No58669¢100¢$586+$182$0
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes2,33127¢24.5¢$571−$57$0
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?No58765.4¢96.1¢$564+$180−$3,162
Will Delegado Éder Mauro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?No56047.4¢100¢$560+$294−$3.10
Will Dr. Daniel Santos win the Governor of Pará election?Yes55943.4¢100¢$559+$316−$0.31
Will Renan Santos win 8% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No54990¢100¢$549+$55$0
Will André do Prado win the most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?No53873.7¢100¢$538+$141$0
Will Gabriel Souza win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?No52696.9¢100¢$526+$16$0
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes3,33313¢15.5¢$517+$83$0
Will Deltan Dallagnol win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?Yes5146¢100¢$514+$483$0
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?No3,33313¢14.5¢$483+$50$0
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No71649¢64.5¢$462+$111+$82
Will Humberto Costa win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?No43558.9¢100¢$435+$179$0
Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?Yes40970.6¢100¢$409+$120$0
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes6,7685¢5.9¢$396+$58$0
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?Yes50577.6¢76.8¢$387−$4.29$0
Sweden snap election called in 2026?No43879¢85¢$372+$26$0
Will UTJ win 7-8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?No1,19028.4¢30.5¢$363+$25$0
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?No35790¢100¢$357+$36$0
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Yes1,36825¢25.5¢$349+$6.84$0
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?No2,22214.5¢14.5¢$322$0$0
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?No1,14925.2¢26.3¢$302+$12$0
Will Jose Medeiros win the second-most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso Senate election?Yes2982.6¢100¢$298+$290$0
Will US win 55% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?No29785¢95.5¢$284+$31$0
Will Zequinha Marinho win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?No23563¢100¢$235+$87−$2.19
Will Marília Campos win the most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?No21536¢100¢$215+$137$0
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes57026¢35¢$200+$51$0
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?Yes19888¢100¢$198+$24−$0.02
Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?Yes23174.7¢85.5¢$198+$25$0
Will Manuela D'Ávila win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?No19667¢100¢$196+$65$0
Will Alexandre Curi win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?No19655.2¢100¢$196+$88−$46
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?No24967¢75.5¢$188+$21$0
Will Ciro Nogueira win the second-most votes in the 2026 Piauí Senate election?No18766¢100¢$187+$63$0
Will Humberto Costa win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?Yes17413.9¢100¢$174+$150−$0.83
Will João Campos win the Pernambuco Governor election?No16351¢100¢$163+$80$0
Will Renan Filho win the 2026 Alagoas gubernatorial election?No16256¢100¢$162+$71$0
Will Professora Dorinha win the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial election?No37837¢41¢$155+$15$0
Will Leila do Vôlei win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?No14549¢100¢$145+$74+$23

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill Adam Scheinherr be the next Mayor of Prague?10.2¢942$9643%64
BUY YesWill Adam Scheinherr be the next Mayor of Prague?2.7¢106$2.9143%64
BUY NoWill Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?1¢969$9.6943%64
BUY YesWill Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?7.1¢237$1743%64
BUY NoWill Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?8.2¢254$2143%64
BUY NoWill Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?9.8¢275$2743%64
BUY YesWill Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?9.9¢26$2.5343%64
BUY YesWill Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?4¢80$3.2043%64
BUY NoWill Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?44¢500$22043%64
BUY YesWill Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?70¢1,787$1,25143%64
BUY NoWill Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?69.9¢1,797$1,25543%64
BUY YesWill Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?69¢500$34543%64
BUY YesWill Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?97¢20$1943%64
BUY NoWill ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?98.3¢225$22243%64
BUY YesWill Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?98.5¢600$59243%64
BUY YesWill Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?97.9¢191$18743%64
BUY YesWill Augusto Cury win between 2% and 4% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?98.7¢129$12743%64
BUY YesWill Raquel Lyra win the Pernambuco Governor election?98.1¢371$36443%64
BUY YesWill Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?81¢40$3243%64
BUY YesWill Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?98.1¢102$10043%64