sharpside
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0x637…8cea

0x637…8cea
CryptoPoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$1,324vol $23.6k
PnL 30d+$2,695gains $1,634 · losses $240
PnL 7d+$2,493win rate 7d 45.5%
Win rate11.3%adj 12.9% · 30d 14.1%
Open value$2,808cash n/a
Positions217 / 1,046open / all-time
Max drawdown−8.1%of equity peak
Account age45dlast trade 14h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$2,640below peak $0Oct 11

SharpScore inputs

59/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale45
Adjusted win rateraw 11.3% · shrunk toward 50%0
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d98
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity92

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?Yes2,08543.1¢79¢$1,647+$749$0
Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?Yes1,05035.6¢84.9¢$892+$517$0
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?No21151.4¢89¢$188+$79+$11
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes10049¢41.5¢$42−$7.50$0
Will OpenRouter process between 175T and 185T tokens the week of October 5?Yes11115¢5.5¢$6.09−$11$0
Will Z.ai have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?No599¢99.8¢$4.99+$0.04$0
Will Marquense be relegated from the 2026-27 Liga Nacional (Guatemala)?Yes2050¢24¢$4.80−$5.20−$0.35
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Yes1003¢3.3¢$3.30+$0.30$0
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Yes1001¢2.5¢$2.50+$1.50$0
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes1001.8¢2.3¢$2.25+$0.45$0
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Yes503.5¢4.1¢$2.02+$0.28$0
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?No502.3¢3.9¢$1.93+$0.78$0
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Yes1001¢1.8¢$1.80+$0.80$0
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Yes502.7¢2.7¢$1.32−$0.02$0
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on December 31, 2026?Yes208.4¢5.5¢$1.11−$0.58$0
Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?Yes502.5¢2.2¢$1.07−$0.17$0
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Yes205.4¢5.1¢$1.02−$0.06$0
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes1201.9¢0.8¢$0.96−$1.32$0
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?Yes323.2¢2.9¢$0.91−$0.11$0
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?Yes303.6¢2.7¢$0.80−$0.28$0
Google announces a training pause by October 31?Yes148¢5.5¢$0.77−$0.35$0
Will Z.ai be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes743.1¢1¢$0.74−$1.54$0
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Yes402.7¢1.3¢$0.50−$0.58$0
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?Yes527¢4.5¢$0.23−$1.13$0
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?Yes303.7¢0.7¢$0.19−$0.91$0
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026?Yes2022¢1¢$0.19−$4.21$0
Will Z.ai be the second-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?Yes254.4¢0.8¢$0.19−$0.91$0
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 5 and October 11, 2026?Yes407.9¢0.4¢$0.16−$3.00$0
Will Z.ai be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes313.3¢0.5¢$0.14−$0.88$0
Will OpenRouter process between 155T and 165T tokens the week of October 5?Yes628¢1.1¢$0.06−$1.62$0
Will SpaceXAI be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes314.2¢0.2¢$0.05−$1.26$0
Will OpenAI have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?Yes1187.1¢0¢$0−$8.38−$0.31
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ETDown201¢0¢$0−$0.20$0
Ethereum Up or Down - September 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ETDown201¢0¢$0−$0.20$0
Will OpenAI have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 7?No150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 14, 2026?Yes150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $182 in September?No150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Trump say "Scottish Blood" this week?Yes150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Bitcoin above 77,800 on September 14, 12AM ET?Yes150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will no Rogan episode air?Yes150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026?Yes150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $187.50 Week of September 14 2026?No150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?Yes150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $10B by December 31?No150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will "Blue" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 14?Yes150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $256 in September?No150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $260 on September 15?Yes150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
GitHub.com critical incident by September 15, 2026?No150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 Week of September 14 2026?No150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $340 on September 15?No150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 30 and 32 million views on day 2?Yes150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Trump praise Andy Burnham in September?No150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on September 13?Yes150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will "Trump" be in the headlines this week?No150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on September 15?Yes150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?Yes150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Denny Tamaki win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election?Yes150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Harry Shum Jr. be eliminated in week 1 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?Yes150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on September 13?Yes150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?Yes150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $495 in September?No150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of September 14 above $140?Yes150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 in September?No150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Jon Rahm finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Irish Open?Yes150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $650 Week of September 14 2026?No150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 in September?No150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Joel Girrbach finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Irish Open?Yes150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Daniel Rodrigues finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 Irish Open?Yes150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Connor Wood be eliminated in week 1 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?Yes150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Moss be runner-up in the 2026 OBOS-ligaen (Norway)?Yes150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $175 in September?No150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Jackson Olson be eliminated in week 1 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?Yes150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will "Right" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 14?No150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Trump post "Russia" on Truth Social this week?No150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Bitcoin above 76,800 on September 14, 12AM ET?No150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (LOW) $180 Week of September 14 2026?No150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on September 15?Yes150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $180 in September?No150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $265 on September 14?Yes150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $225 on September 14?Yes150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Melania say "Safe" or "Safer" or "Safety" during her NC remarks?Yes150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Elon post "Tesla" on X this week?No150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on September 14?Up150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Meta (META) close above $630 on September 14?No150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $490 on September 15?No150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $265 on September 15?Yes150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?No150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Texas be Ranked #1 during the 2026-27 CFB season?No150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% in September?No150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 Week of September 14 2026?No150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Mamdani say "Budget" during his announcement?Yes150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (LOW) $177 Week of September 14 2026?No150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will "Left" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 14?No150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $172 Week of September 14 2026?No150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?No150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Bitcoin above 77,000 on September 14, 12AM ET?No150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?Yes150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will JD Vance give the next White House press briefing?Yes150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?No150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $335 on September 15?No150.1¢0¢$0−$0.01$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?53¢60$3211%59
BUY YesWill Marquense be relegated from the 2026-27 Liga Nacional (Guatemala)?50¢20$1011%59
SELL YesWill Marquense be relegated from the 2026-27 Liga Nacional (Guatemala)?23¢20$4.6011%59
BUY YesWill Marquense be relegated from the 2026-27 Liga Nacional (Guatemala)?23¢20$4.6011%59
SELL YesWill OpenRouter process between 165T and 175T tokens the week of October 5?68.1¢111$7611%59
BUY YesWill OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?60¢615$36911%59
BUY YesWill OpenRouter process between 165T and 175T tokens the week of October 5?59.4¢111$6611%59
BUY YesWill OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?68¢20$1411%59
BUY YesWill Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?44.5¢126$5611%59
SELL YesWill DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?98¢18$1811%59
BUY YesWill OpenRouter process between 175T and 185T tokens the week of October 5?15¢111$1711%59
SELL YesWill Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?14.1¢218$3111%59
BUY YesWill Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?54.7¢84$4611%59
BUY YesWill OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?67¢20$1311%59
BUY YesWill OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?57¢164$9411%59
SELL YesWill OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?34.6¢337$11711%59
SELL NoWill Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?58¢40$2311%59
BUY YesWill OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?30¢352$10611%59
BUY YesWill OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?30.7¢20$6.1411%59
BUY YesWill OpenRouter process between 155T and 165T tokens the week of October 5?28¢6$1.6811%59