sharpside
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Traders/Unranked

big-short

0x63c…43a5
SharpPnL 50k+PnL 10k+WR 70+WR 60+1y+PoliticsOtherCrypto
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$52.8kvol $1.16M
PnL 30d−$405gains $79 · losses $0
PnL 7d−$181win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate76.8%adj 75.7% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$5,587cash n/a
Positions14 / 1,312open / all-time
Max drawdown−15.9%of equity peak
Account age2.0ylast trade 14d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$55.0kbelow peak −$3,441Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

77/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale67
Adjusted win rateraw 76.8% · shrunk toward 50%89
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d51
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity84

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8? · Yesclosed+$11.9kUS strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? · Yesclosed+$5,071US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? · Yesclosed+$3,273Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2025? · Yesclosed+$2,526Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? · Yesclosed+$2,340

Worst markets

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? · Noclosed−$6,348US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? · Noclosed−$3,940US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? · Noclosed−$2,628Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? · Noopen−$1,834Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2025? · Yesclosed−$1,293

Open positions · 14

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?No3,42830¢76¢$2,605+$1,577+$112
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31?No1,37988.4¢96¢$1,324+$105+$10
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?No96383.3¢97¢$935+$132+$13
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Yes55524.4¢71.5¢$397+$262$0
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31?No29376¢93¢$272+$50$0
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.4m barrels per day in 2026?No6056¢89.1¢$53+$20$0
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?Yes5320.7¢2.7¢$1.42−$9.44$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?No2,37977.1¢0¢$0−$1,834$0
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes1,21165.1¢0¢$0−$788$0
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?Yes50812¢0¢$0−$61$0
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?No49531.1¢0¢$0−$154−$4.24
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No46310.9¢0¢$0−$50+$1.40
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No27013.6¢0¢$0−$37$0
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes25046.6¢0¢$0−$116$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL NoWill the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?96.9¢1,000$96977%77Sharp
BUY Yes0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?12¢109$1377%77Sharp
BUY NoWill any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?31.1¢495$15477%77Sharp
SELL NoWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?95.5¢1,600$1,52877%77Sharp
SELL NoWill Elon Musk buy Ryanair?99.6¢500$49877%77Sharp
SELL YesMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?39¢3,274$1,27777%77Sharp
BUY YesMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?71.9¢1,995$1,43477%77Sharp
BUY YesMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?50¢668$33477%77Sharp
BUY YesMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?71.8¢2,043$1,46777%77Sharp
BUY NoWill Trump say "Sleepy Joe" or "Biden" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?5.7¢700$4077%77Sharp
BUY YesWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?89¢2,482$2,20977%77Sharp
BUY YesWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?86¢15.0k$12.9k77%77WhaleSharp
BUY YesWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?83.7¢51$4377%77Sharp
BUY YesWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?82¢592$48677%77Sharp
BUY NoWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?93.3¢6$5.7877%77Sharp
BUY NoUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?72¢157$11377%77Sharp
BUY YesIsrael strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?98¢73$7177%77Sharp
SELL YesWill Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?0.3¢500$1.5077%77Sharp
SELL YesWill Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?0.1¢500$0.5077%77Sharp
SELL YesWill Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?0.1¢500$0.5077%77Sharp