sharpside
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MoonShootBets

0x649…74b2
Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$2,352vol $65.7k
PnL 30d−$220gains $750 · losses $275
PnL 7d−$540win rate 7d 50.0%
Win rate47.8%adj 48.1% · 30d 50.0%
Open value$6,409cash n/a
Positions29 / 146open / all-time
Max drawdown−37.9%of equity peak
Account age7molast trade 15h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$2,573below peak −$1,139Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

54/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale48
Adjusted win rateraw 47.8% · shrunk toward 50%20
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable72
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d98
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity62

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 29

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Yes1,54677.7¢78¢$1,206+$4.18−$5.35
Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Yes1,05884.9¢89¢$942+$43+$3.80
Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No1,25969.8¢72¢$906+$28+$240
Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?Yes48388¢89¢$430+$4.96$0
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes1,87820.1¢21.5¢$404+$27+$5.77
Will Édouard Philippe, but not Gabriel Attal, be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Yes49270.1¢80¢$394+$49$0
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Yes33042.2¢91.5¢$302+$162+$496
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?No26872.4¢81¢$217+$23+$3.58
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?No23191¢91.7¢$212+$1.67$0
Will Michel Barnier announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?No14190.7¢94¢$132+$4.59+$1.21
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?No31353.9¢36¢$113−$56−$126
Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?No13088.2¢85¢$111−$4.29$0
Will Olivier Faure be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No11289.4¢95.5¢$107+$6.82$0
Will François Hollande announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?Yes32664.4¢32.5¢$106−$104−$6.72
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?No51340.3¢18.5¢$95−$112−$220
Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?No41659.4¢22¢$91−$155−$267
Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Yes9860.9¢89¢$88+$28−$11
Will Grüne be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?Yes29415.3¢27.6¢$81+$36−$10
Will Édouard Philippe advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?Yes15046.6¢49.5¢$74+$4.39$0
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes32524¢19.9¢$64−$14$0
Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No7773.3¢78.5¢$60+$4.02+$1.24
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes14235.6¢40¢$57+$6.26+$1,197
Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Yes6281¢81¢$50$0$0
Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Yes8467.5¢59¢$49−$7.10−$42
Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No4970.5¢93.4¢$46+$11+$280
Will Élisabeth Borne announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?No3390.5¢93.7¢$31+$1.05+$3.61
Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Yes7963.5¢28.5¢$22−$28$0
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes7513.3¢13.1¢$9.81−$0.19+$0.99
Will both Gabriel Attal and Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No982¢93.5¢$8.56+$1.05+$0.64

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL NoWill Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?93.1¢16$1548%54
BUY YesWill Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?93¢30$2848%54
SELL YesWill Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?91¢110$10048%54
BUY YesWill Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?90¢9$8.0048%54
BUY YesWill Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?89¢28$2548%54
BUY YesWill Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?87.9¢114$10048%54
SELL YesWill Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?91¢146$13348%54
BUY YesWill Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?87.6¢29$2548%54
BUY YesWill Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?87¢28$2448%54
BUY YesWill Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?86¢25$2148%54
SELL YesWill Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?89¢117$10448%54
BUY YesWill Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?86.4¢23$2048%54
SELL NoWill Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?92.8¢22$2048%54
BUY YesWill Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?86.6¢32$2848%54
BUY YesWill Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?86.4¢23$2048%54
SELL NoWill Michel Barnier announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?93.9¢47$4448%54
BUY YesWill Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?86.2¢35$3048%54
SELL NoWill the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?34¢104$3648%54
BUY YesWill Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?85¢35$3048%54
BUY YesWill Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?85¢35$3048%54