sharpside
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Traders/Rank #2,066

GingerMcKenna

0x671…2f1e
PnL 10k+PoliticsSport
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$36.4kvol $2.11M
PnL 30d+$43.4kgains $8,677 · losses $9,307
PnL 7d+$32.6kwin rate 7d 42.9%
Win rate42.9%adj 43.1% · 30d 42.9%
Open value$53.7kcash n/a
Positions2,000 / 10,138open / all-time
Max drawdown−36.2%of equity peak
Account age6molast trade 2m ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$143kbelow peak −$8,792Oct 9

SharpScore inputs

57/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale65
Adjusted win rateraw 42.9% · shrunk toward 50%8
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity64

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No40.5k50¢51.6¢$20.9k+$628−$117
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes40.5k50¢48.4¢$19.6k−$628$0
Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?No17399.1¢99.1¢$172−$0.02−$9.79
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?No18382.5¢86.5¢$158+$7.41+$175
Will Mario Zamora Gastélum win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?No18373.6¢81.5¢$149+$14$0
Will "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m?No14397.1¢100¢$143+$4.15−$6.11
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes3183.9¢44¢$140+$127$0
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?No13095.2¢95.9¢$125+$0.97−$9.92
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?No11597.2¢97.9¢$113+$0.77−$98
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?No11596.5¢98¢$113+$1.67−$231
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?No11597¢97.4¢$112+$0.42−$222
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?No11598.6¢97.4¢$112−$1.40−$196
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?No15740.7¢70¢$110+$46+$83
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?No11592.7¢92.4¢$106−$0.33−$183
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes10690.8¢100¢$106+$9.74−$0.35
Will FURIA Win the ESL Pro League Season 24?No10596.2¢95.2¢$100−$1.05$0
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?Yes10068¢100¢$100+$32+$4.09
Will Aurora Win the ESL Pro League Season 24?No10596.6¢94.9¢$100−$1.77$0
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?No17379.9¢56¢$97−$41+$1.59
Will MOUZ Win the ESL Pro League Season 24?No10586.3¢89.5¢$94+$3.32$0
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?No11583.8¢80.5¢$93−$3.78−$110
Will Falcons Win the ESL Pro League Season 24?No10780¢82.5¢$89+$2.70$0
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?No9098.3¢97.8¢$88−$0.45−$71
Will Spirit Win the ESL Pro League Season 24?No10580.1¢83¢$88+$3.10$0
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?No11576¢75.5¢$87−$0.58+$66
Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?No10077.9¢80.5¢$81+$2.65$0
Will Omar López Campos win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?No7899.7¢99.7¢$78−$0.04$0
Will Jesús Fernando García Hernández win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?No7899.9¢99.7¢$78−$0.16$0
Will Paloma Sánchez Ramos win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?No7899.8¢99.6¢$78−$0.16$0
Will María Teresa Guerra Ochoa win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?No7899.3¢99.5¢$78+$0.15$0
Will Gerardo Octavio Vargas Landeros win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?No7899.6¢99.7¢$78+$0.08$0
Will Sergio Torres Félix win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?No7899.8¢99.6¢$78−$0.20$0
Will Roxana Rubio Valdez win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?No7899.8¢99.6¢$78−$0.20$0
Will Kristiam Alexis Espinoza García win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?No7899.8¢99.5¢$78−$0.23$0
Will Rodolfo Valenzuela Sánchez win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?No7899.9¢99.6¢$78−$0.27$0
Will "East of Eden: Limited Series" be the top global Netflix show this week?Yes7871¢100¢$78+$23$0
Will Guillermo Romero Rodríguez win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?No7899.8¢99.6¢$78−$0.20$0
Will Lucila Ayala de Moreschi win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?No7899.8¢99.6¢$78−$0.20$0
Will Ricardo Madrid Pérez win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?No7899.8¢99.5¢$78−$0.23$0
Will Tomás de Jesús López Bajo win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?No7899.8¢99.5¢$78−$0.23$0
Will Graciela Domínguez Nava win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?No7899.8¢99.5¢$78−$0.27$0
Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m?No9977.6¢78¢$78+$0.40$0
Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 32m?No7458¢100¢$74+$31−$0.23
Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 33m?No10071.1¢71.5¢$72+$0.40$0
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Yes88310.2¢8¢$71−$20+$38
Will Carlos Portinho win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?Yes701.8¢100¢$70+$69−$0.01
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?No7063¢100¢$70+$26+$51
Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 33m?No10165.5¢68¢$69+$2.53−$4.89
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?No9470.7¢71.9¢$68+$1.08−$128
Will Daniel Hadad win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?No6097.7¢99.7¢$60+$1.19$0
Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?No6099.4¢99.7¢$60+$0.13$0
Will Victoria Villarruel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?No6099.5¢99.4¢$60−$0.09−$44
Will Vitality Win the ESL Pro League Season 24?No10560.4¢56.5¢$59−$4.13$0
Will Patricia Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?No6099.5¢99¢$59−$0.35$0
Will Myriam Bregman win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?No6098.8¢98.7¢$59−$0.11−$63
Will Dante Gebel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?No6098.4¢98¢$59−$0.25−$188
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Goiás?No5660.7¢100¢$56+$22−$14
Will Steven Cheung be the next White House Press Secretary?Yes5902.9¢9.5¢$56+$39$0
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?No6091.6¢92.4¢$55+$0.50−$39
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?No5289.5¢100¢$52+$5.48−$29
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1?No5181¢100¢$51+$9.72$0
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?No5078¢100¢$50+$11+$33
Will Eduardo Ortiz Hernández win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?No4899.9¢100¢$48+$0.02$0
Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m?No5096.9¢95.9¢$48−$0.48$0
Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day?No4883.4¢98.5¢$47+$7.24+$6.24
Will "Doing Life" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?No4699¢100¢$46+$0.46−$0.01
Will MrBeast's next video get between 172 and 174 million views on day 5?No4596.2¢100¢$45+$1.75−$0.08
Will MrBeast's next video get between 168 and 170 million views on day 5?No4597.8¢100¢$45+$1.00−$0.05
Will MrBeast's next video get between 170 and 172 million views on day 5?No4597¢100¢$45+$1.35−$0.07
Will MrBeast's next video get between 166 and 168 million views on day 5?No4599¢100¢$45+$0.46−$0.02
Will MrBeast's next video get between 174 and 176 million views on day 5?No4592.4¢100¢$45+$3.44−$0.04
Will Bekim Sejdiu be the next President of Kosovo?No4573.6¢100¢$45+$12−$0.34
Will Elizabeth Pipko be the next White House Press Secretary?Yes5902.9¢7.5¢$44+$27$0
Will Cam Cook be the 2026 D1 Rushing Yards Leader?No4594.1¢96.1¢$43+$0.92$0
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes1,3703¢3.1¢$42+$0.27$0
Will MrBeast's next video get at least 100 million views on week 1?Yes4165.2¢100¢$41+$14+$42
Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in September 2026?No4582¢89.3¢$40+$3.29$0
Will Natus Vincere Win the ESL Pro League Season 24?No4097.7¢100¢$40+$0.92−$0.04
Will Legacy Win the ESL Pro League Season 24?No4099¢100¢$40+$0.40−$0.02
Will 9z Win the ESL Pro League Season 24?No4098.7¢100¢$40+$0.52−$0.03
Will BetBoom Win the ESL Pro League Season 24?No4099.3¢100¢$40+$0.28−$0.01
Will G2 Win the ESL Pro League Season 24?No4099.2¢100¢$40+$0.32−$0.02
Will "Heart of the Beast" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 13m?No4024¢100¢$40+$30−$0.09
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?No4033¢100¢$40+$27$0
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?No4074.6¢100¢$40+$10−$0.38
Will Máximo Kirchner win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?No4099.9¢99.9¢$40−$0.02$0
Will Esteban Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?No4099.8¢99.8¢$40−$0.02−$24
Will Facundo Manes win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?No4099.8¢99.8¢$40−$0.02−$24
Will Guillermo Moreno win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?No4099.8¢99.8¢$40−$0.02$0
Will Mauricio Macri win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?No4099.7¢99.7¢$40−$0.02−$84
Will Juan Grabois win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?No4099.6¢99.4¢$40−$0.08−$84
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?No5869.4¢68.5¢$40−$0.51+$15
Will Ryan Gosling win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?No4098.8¢98.7¢$39−$0.04$0
Will PARIVISION Win the ESL Pro League Season 24?No4098.6¢98.5¢$39−$0.04$0
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?No4887.1¢80.5¢$39−$3.22−$5.23
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?No4098.7¢96.3¢$39−$0.96$0
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?No4098.4¢96¢$38−$0.96$0
Will the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin have between 153 and 157 seats after the 2026 election?Yes5111.6¢76.1¢$38+$33+$11
Will John Turturro win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?No4088.9¢95.8¢$38+$2.76$0
Will Robert Pattinson win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?No4095.7¢95.6¢$38−$0.06$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill World Central Kitchen win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?94.8¢10$9.6243%57
BUY NoWill Sara Al-Saqqa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?99.1¢20$2043%57
BUY NoWill the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?94.4¢20$1943%57
BUY NoWill Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?98.2¢20$2043%57
BUY NoWill Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?94.9¢20$1943%57
BUY NoWill Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?86.6¢20$1743%57
BUY NoWill Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?99¢20$2043%57
BUY NoWill Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?96.8¢20$1943%57
BUY NoWill Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?80.7¢20$1643%57
BUY NoWill Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?5.3¢42$2.2543%57
BUY NoWill "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?79.8¢20$1643%57
BUY NoWill "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?80¢30$2443%57
BUY NoWill "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 33m?70¢20$1443%57
BUY NoWill "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 33m?70¢31$2243%57
BUY NoWill two people dissent the December Fed decision?88.8¢20$1843%57
BUY NoWill three people dissent the December Fed decision?94.9¢21$2043%57
BUY NoWill one person dissent the December Fed decision?83.5¢20$1743%57
BUY NoWill MrBeast's next video get between 207 and 215 million views on week 1?90¢11$1043%57
BUY NoWill MrBeast's next video get between 207 and 215 million views on week 1?85¢14$1243%57
BUY NoWill MrBeast's next video get at least 223 million views on week 1?60¢27$1643%57