PnL all-time+$4,229vol $43.5k
PnL 30d+$1,668gains $1,619 · losses $0
PnL 7d+$364win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate97.6%adj 88.3% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$6,253cash n/a
Positions7 / 90open / all-time
Max drawdown−2.1%of equity peak
Account age48dlast trade 6h ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$4,335below peak $0Oct 13
SharpScore inputs
78/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale52
Adjusted win rateraw 97.6% · shrunk toward 50%100
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable65
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity98
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026? · Yesclosed+$1,996Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026? · Yesclosed+$634Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 2, 2026? · Yesclosed+$354Will Michael Woodford win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? · Yesclosed+$222Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 22, 2026? · Yesclosed+$215
Worst markets
Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026? · Yesopen−$99Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026? · Yesopen−$18Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yesopen−$1.93Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yesopen−$1.91Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? · Yesopen−$1.49
Open positions · 7
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026? | Yes | 4,453 | 90.3¢ | 90.5¢ | $4,030 | +$6.99 | $0 | |
| Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026? | Yes | 2,479 | 90.4¢ | 89.6¢ | $2,222 | −$18 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026? | Yes | 115 | 85.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$99 | −$0.56 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026? | Yes | 8 | 12.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.00 | −$0.04 | |
| Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 8 | 24.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.86 | −$0.07 | |
| Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 5 | 36.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.85 | −$0.06 | |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? | Yes | 5 | 29¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.45 | −$0.04 |
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