sharpside
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Traders/Rank #2,749

StupidMonkeyyy

0x67d…245e
PoliticsSportOtherCrypto
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$7,345vol $4.80M
PnL 30d+$22.1kgains $28.0k · losses $9,899
PnL 7d+$98win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate56.1%adj 55.8% · 30d 61.0%
Open value$54.5kcash n/a
Positions74 / 574open / all-time
Max drawdown−64.4%of equity peak
Account age10molast trade 1d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$10.1kbelow peak −$2,466Oct 9

SharpScore inputs

56/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale55
Adjusted win rateraw 56.1% · shrunk toward 50%39
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable92
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d94
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity36

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 74

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No40.0k50¢80.2¢$32.0k+$12.0k$0
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes40.0k50¢19.9¢$7,930−$12.0k$0
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes6,46788.9¢95.5¢$6,173+$427−$1,407
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes3,99881.6¢81.5¢$3,258−$4.68−$239
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?No2,21063.7¢67¢$1,480+$73+$23
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?Yes1,40060.7¢81.5¢$1,141+$292+$17
Anthropic IPO before 2027?No3,99917.7¢17.5¢$700−$7.87+$296
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes62593¢95.6¢$597+$16$0
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by December 31, 2026?No44272.3¢73¢$323+$3.17$0
Will Trump and Putin not meet?Yes1,34137.2¢18¢$241−$258−$5.49
OpenAI IPO before 2027?Yes6,4689.5¢2.8¢$178−$434+$1,501
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?No1710¢88¢$150+$150$0
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes44225.2¢26.5¢$117+$5.60$0
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No8414¢56.5¢$47+$36+$175
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?No8480.4¢43.5¢$36−$31−$148
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?Yes1710¢13¢$22+$22$0
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Yes6254¢2.8¢$18−$7.50$0
Kash Patel out by December 31?No1875.7¢80.5¢$15+$0.88+$21
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?No1685¢91.5¢$15+$1.04$0
Will Ethereum hit $3k by December 31, 2026?No1839¢56¢$10+$3.06$0
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes1855¢40¢$7.20−$2.70$0
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?Yes1522¢18.5¢$2.77−$0.53+$138
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?No1612¢6.5¢$1.04−$0.88$0
Will Luis Felipe Romero Peña win the next Chiclayo mayoral elections?Yes71414¢0.1¢$0.36−$100$0
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?Yes21.7k84.4¢0¢$0−$18.3k+$5,787
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?No14.9k0.1¢0¢$0−$15$0
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes11.5k0.4¢0¢$0−$46−$2.30
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes11.5k0.2¢0¢$0−$23−$1.15
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?Yes9,6402.3¢0¢$0−$220−$11
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?Yes9,4285.6¢0¢$0−$531−$74
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?Yes7,86219.3¢0¢$0−$1,520+$403
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?No7,4405.8¢0¢$0−$433$0
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026?No6,7246.6¢0¢$0−$443$0
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day?Yes5,63323.1¢0¢$0−$1,303−$89
LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?No5,5080.9¢0¢$0−$52−$3.59
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Yes5,3531.1¢0¢$0−$59$0
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Yes5,0001.6¢0¢$0−$80$0
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes5,0000.8¢0¢$0−$40+$30
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?No4,5588.9¢0¢$0−$407−$71
US strikes Iran by January 27, 2026?Yes4,5450.8¢0¢$0−$35$0
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?No4,31742.3¢0¢$0−$1,827−$378
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International PlayoffsTEAM VISION3,59758¢0¢$0−$2,085−$1,203
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?No1,98117.6¢0¢$0−$349−$11
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?No1,6273.1¢0¢$0−$50+$2.98
Lionel Messi: 2+ goalsYes1,4308¢0¢$0−$114−$5.26
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?No1,41514.8¢0¢$0−$209+$712
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No1,16275.1¢0¢$0−$873−$11
Will Ethan Corson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Democratic primary election?Yes1,0987.5¢0¢$0−$82−$3.04
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between August 31 and September 6, 2026?No1,03374.9¢0¢$0−$774−$112
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 21, 2026?Yes1,0000.6¢0¢$0−$5.88$0
Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 158.5Under1,00049¢0¢$0−$490$0
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies: O/U 135.5Over1,00047¢0¢$0−$470$0
Troy Trojans vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers: O/U 136.5Over1,00054¢0¢$0−$540$0
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?No96664.2¢0¢$0−$620−$57
Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman?No83916.3¢0¢$0−$137+$81
Will Kylian Mbappe score 9+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No61245.8¢0¢$0−$280−$7.59
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 22, 2026?Yes5480.8¢0¢$0−$4.50$0
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. St. John's Red Storm: O/U 132.5Over50050¢0¢$0−$250$0
Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be less than 490m by August 31?Yes4680.1¢0¢$0−$0.47−$0.02
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 15 and 20 million views on day 1?Yes4580.2¢0¢$0−$0.92$0
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Yes36113.1¢0¢$0−$47+$156
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 23, 2026?Yes3271.3¢0¢$0−$4.24+$5.92
Dani Olmo: 1+ goalsYes31716¢0¢$0−$51−$2.13
Will there be no next Google Gemini Flash model release by September 15, 2026?Yes2624.6¢0¢$0−$12−$0.31
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsYes24036¢0¢$0−$86−$2.76
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026?No23740.4¢0¢$0−$96+$13
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?Yes21130.3¢0¢$0−$64$0
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 15, 2026?Yes2000.6¢0¢$0−$1.20−$0.05
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 24, 2026?Yes1861.5¢0¢$0−$2.77+$1.90
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 25, 2026?Yes1110.3¢0¢$0−$0.33$0
Texas Longhorns vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs: O/U 146.5Over3553¢0¢$0−$19−$5.46
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:50AM-10:55AM ETDown1668.6¢0¢$0−$11$0
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ETDown1052¢0¢$0−$5.20−$0.17
Will Kylian Mbappe score 10+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No680¢0¢$0−$4.80−$0.05

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL YesWill Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?82¢441$36256%56
SELL YesWill Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?84¢1,988$1,67056%56
SELL YesWill Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?85¢1,067$90756%56
SELL NoWill Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?21¢3,500$73556%56
BUY NoWill Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?21¢20$4.2056%56
BUY NoWill Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?20¢2,480$49656%56
BUY YesWill Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?80.6¢2,500$2,01656%56
BUY NoWill Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?18¢1,000$18056%56
BUY YesWill Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?84¢1,000$84056%56
BUY NoAnthropic IPO before 2027?16.4¢425$7056%56
BUY NoAnthropic IPO before 2027?20.9¢338$7056%56
BUY NoAnthropic IPO before 2027?22¢378$8356%56
SELL YesRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027?21.6¢2,822$61056%56
SELL YesRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027?24.3¢1,659$40456%56
BUY NoWill Changpeng Zhao (CZ) post about $LAPTOP by September 30?99.7¢1,309$1,30456%56
BUY NoWill Donald Trump Jr. post about $LAPTOP by September 30?99.8¢227$22756%56
BUY NoWill Donald Trump post about $LAPTOP by September 30?99.8¢36$3656%56
BUY YesNext US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?63¢283$17856%56
BUY YesWill no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?37¢283$10556%56
BUY NoRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?63.7¢2,757$1,75756%56