PnL all-time+$144kvol $11.1M
PnL 30d−$2,680gains $262 · losses $0
PnL 7d+$85win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate70.4%adj 69.2% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$7,252cash n/a
Positions3 / 4,657open / all-time
Max drawdown−6.1%of equity peak
Account age1.6ylast trade 13d ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$159kbelow peak −$518Oct 9
SharpScore inputs
75/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale74
Adjusted win rateraw 70.4% · shrunk toward 50%73
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d54
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity94
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? · Yesclosed+$1,827Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? · Yesclosed+$1,402Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? · Yesclosed+$907Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? · Noclosed+$897Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? · Noclosed+$798
Worst markets
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? · Noclosed−$739Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? · Yesclosed−$572Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? · Yesclosed−$541Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? · Yesclosed−$469Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? · Noclosed−$447
Open positions · 3
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | 4,000 | 88.8¢ | 93.5¢ | $3,740 | +$188 | +$18 | |
| Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship? | No | 3,000 | 97¢ | 100¢ | $3,000 | +$90 | −$3.49 | |
| Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | No | 525 | 86.3¢ | 97.5¢ | $512 | +$59 | +$16 |
Recent trades
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