PnL all-time+$814vol $36.9k
PnL 30d+$1,335gains $450 · losses $765
PnL 7d+$172win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate28.6%adj 41.2% · 30d 16.7%
Open value$4,182cash n/a
Positions9 / 23open / all-time
Max drawdown−35.4%of equity peak
Account age2molast trade 2d ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$2,146below peak −$175Oct 13
SharpScore inputs
28/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale42
Adjusted win rateraw 28.6% · shrunk toward 50%3
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable45
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d92
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity65
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yesopen+$1,253Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026? · Noclosed+$900Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026? · Noclosed+$429Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? · Yesopen+$249Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026? · Yesopen+$96
Worst markets
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026? · Yesclosed−$340Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? · Noclosed−$161Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yesopen−$90Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? · Yesclosed−$76Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? · Noclosed−$52
Open positions · 9
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 2,300 | 36.8¢ | 70.8¢ | $1,627 | +$781 | +$472 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026? | No | 943 | 74.6¢ | 96.4¢ | $909 | +$205 | −$255 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | Yes | 831 | 63¢ | 93¢ | $773 | +$249 | $0 | |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? | Yes | 868 | 23.9¢ | 27.5¢ | $239 | +$31 | −$36 | |
| Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 357 | 58.9¢ | 65¢ | $232 | +$22 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 600 | 36.7¢ | 26.5¢ | $159 | −$61 | −$29 | |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | Yes | 965 | 12.1¢ | 13.5¢ | $130 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 113 | 70¢ | 89¢ | $101 | +$22 | +$75 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 1,930 | 0.9¢ | 0.7¢ | $13 | −$4.81 | $0 |
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