PnL all-time+$224kvol $21.8M
PnL 30d$0gains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d$0win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate55.0%adj 54.8% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$0cash n/a
Positions4 / 686open / all-time
Max drawdown−20.2%of equity peak
Account age4.0ylast trade 1y ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$206kbelow peak −$1,303Oct 8
SharpScore inputs
55/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale76
Adjusted win rateraw 55.0% · shrunk toward 50%37
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable95
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity80
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes? · Yesclosed+$34.1kWill the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? · Yesclosed+$28.9kWill Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? · Noclosed+$26.2kKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? · Noclosed+$24.4kWill Russia capture Kurakhove before December? · Noclosed+$22.5k
Worst markets
Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes? · Noclosed−$32.3kUS military action against Iran by Sunday? · Noclosed−$27.5kWill Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? · Noclosed−$25.4kWill Anthony Albanese be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 2025 election? · Yesclosed−$17.4kWill Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? · Noclosed−$15.4k
Open positions · 4
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will GPT-5 be released by August 31? | No | 1,796 | 14¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$251 | $0 | |
| Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament? | Yes | 915 | 51¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$467 | $0 | |
| Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? | No | 58 | 1.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.11 | $0 | |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15? | Yes | 20 | 38.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$7.74 | $0 |
Recent trades
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