sharpside
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Traders/Rank #5,138

Belgaron

0x6c1…df5c
WhaleWR 70+WR 60+1y+PoliticsSportOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$55.1kvol $1.88M
PnL 30d−$22.2kgains $5,501 · losses $11.8k
PnL 7d−$17.6kwin rate 7d 81.8%
Win rate71.2%adj 70.4% · 30d 69.5%
Open value$186kcash n/a
Positions235 / 1,279open / all-time
Max drawdown−92.7%of equity peak
Account age2.1ylast trade 3h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$53.1kbelow peak −$47.4kOct 9

SharpScore inputs

40/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 71.2% · shrunk toward 50%76
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity7

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?No10.9k73.4¢96.5¢$10.5k+$2,510$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes11.5k86.6¢87.1¢$10.0k+$54+$3,133
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?No9,17989.1¢92.2¢$8,463+$284$0
US strike on Colombia by December 31?No10.5k75.1¢77.5¢$8,105+$255$0
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?Yes6,99284.3¢89.5¢$6,258+$364$0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo6,60091.1¢91.5¢$6,039+$29−$12
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?No5,66984.2¢98.1¢$5,561+$789+$786
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?No5,36889.8¢96.6¢$5,183+$360$0
Will the National Action Party (PAN) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?Yes6,59273¢76.5¢$5,043+$231$0
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?Yes5,47384.2¢85.4¢$4,674+$67+$4.32
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?No4,75889.2¢93.2¢$4,432+$190$0
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?No4,60086.2¢91.5¢$4,209+$243$0
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?No4,25887.7¢93.5¢$3,982+$246$0
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?Yes4,33988.5¢90.5¢$3,927+$88$0
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?No5,40579.3¢72.5¢$3,918−$367+$0.73
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?No4,23287.7¢90.5¢$3,830+$120$0
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes4,00088.3¢90.5¢$3,620+$86$0
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No3,90087.3¢90.5¢$3,530+$125$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?No3,40745¢89.5¢$3,049+$1,516+$128
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?No5,06971.9¢59¢$2,991−$653$0
Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?No3,26684.1¢89¢$2,907+$161$0
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No4,62970.7¢61.5¢$2,847−$425−$190
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?No2,67987.8¢96.5¢$2,584+$233$0
US strike on Mexico by December 31?No2,58884¢96¢$2,484+$311$0
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?No2,64191.3¢93.5¢$2,469+$59$0
Trump out as President before 2027?No2,30094¢95.7¢$2,200+$39+$145
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?No2,50081.3¢87.5¢$2,187+$156$0
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Yes2,04889.2¢92.5¢$1,895+$68$0
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?No1,94488¢94¢$1,826+$116$0
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?No2,05087.8¢87¢$1,783−$16−$4.80
Will Pablo Gutiérrez Lazarus win the 2027 Campeche Governor Election?Yes2,51259.1¢69¢$1,733+$249+$236
Will Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2027?No1,77291.7¢96.7¢$1,714+$88$0
Will Trump nationalize elections?No1,76487.6¢90¢$1,588+$42$0
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes1,50093.3¢96.1¢$1,441+$41$0
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?No1,80275.6¢77.5¢$1,396+$34$0
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?No1,40085¢89.5¢$1,253+$63$0
New pandemic in 2026?No1,22793¢95¢$1,166+$25$0
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?No1,18091.7¢96.3¢$1,136+$53$0
Blue wave in 2026?Yes1,20580.2¢85.5¢$1,030+$64$0
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?No1,11087.5¢92.5¢$1,027+$56$0
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No1,23568.8¢76.5¢$945+$95$0
Will Dune: Part Three be delayed?No93089.5¢97.8¢$909+$77$0
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No90089.7¢97.8¢$880+$72$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?No90076¢96.5¢$868+$184$0
Will the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?No90790.8¢95.5¢$866+$43$0
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?No84595.1¢97.1¢$820+$17$0
Will Imelda Castro Castro win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?Yes1,04181¢78.5¢$818−$26$0
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?No2,92579.6¢27¢$790−$1,539−$182
Will Rosa María Bayardo Cabrera win the 2027 Colima Governor Election?Yes92083.4¢84¢$773+$5.39$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?No96068¢80¢$768+$115$0
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?No80089¢95¢$760+$48$0
Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 5.50%?No70090¢99.6¢$697+$67$0
Fetterman leaves the Democrats before the midterms?No72392¢95.8¢$693+$27$0
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No71593.8¢93.7¢$670−$0.60$0
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31?Yes66690¢99.6¢$663+$64$0
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No90076.7¢73¢$657−$33$0
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?No73983.3¢88¢$650+$35$0
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?No88176.6¢73.5¢$648−$28$0
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?No66791.2¢95.6¢$637+$30$0
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year?No65389¢94.5¢$617+$36$0
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes70078.2¢87.6¢$613+$66$0
Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before 2027?No63291.3¢94.9¢$600+$23$0
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026?No60096.6¢97.6¢$585+$5.40$0
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?No60088¢97.2¢$583+$55$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?No60063.7¢93.5¢$561+$179$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?No60089¢91.5¢$549+$15$0
Will Ted Cruz be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?No63471.5¢85.5¢$542+$89+$13
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?No54496.1¢98.7¢$537+$14$0
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?No54991¢97.1¢$533+$33$0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes1,82636.3¢28.5¢$520−$142$0
Will Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election?No54781.7¢95.1¢$520+$73$0
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes57587¢84.5¢$486−$14$0
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026?No47895.9¢98.7¢$472+$13$0
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?Yes50090¢92.5¢$463+$13$0
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027?No50089¢91.5¢$458+$13$0
US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?No50079¢85.5¢$428+$33$0
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?No41895.7¢97¢$405+$5.17$0
Will Hillary Clinton announce a Presidential run before 2027?No40097¢99.2¢$397+$8.60$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?No40094¢95.5¢$382+$6.00$0
Will Andy Beshear announce a Presidential run before 2027?No41985¢89.8¢$376+$20$0
Will Andrés Mijes Llovera win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election?No37889.5¢98.2¢$371+$33+$18
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Vermont Lieutenant Governor election?Yes40082.8¢92¢$368+$37$0
Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?No40088.9¢91.3¢$365+$9.40$0
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Yes70540.8¢47¢$331+$44$0
Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?No40380.3¢78.6¢$316−$6.98$0
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?No32687¢97¢$316+$32$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New York Attorney General election?Yes32193¢95.9¢$308+$9.15$0
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No40090.5¢74.3¢$297−$65$0
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?No32078.4¢92.1¢$295+$44$0
Will the Florida Special 2026 Senate race be within 5%?No49469.9¢59¢$291−$54$0
Will Avengers: Doomsday be delayed?No30692¢95.1¢$291+$9.34$0
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?No30095.8¢96.9¢$291+$3.30$0
Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?No30089¢96.4¢$289+$22$0
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026?No29890¢96.6¢$287+$19$0
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No30093¢95¢$285+$6.00$0
Will Chinda Kingsley Ogundu win the 2027 Rivers State gubernatorial election?Yes30083¢94¢$282+$33$0
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?No30065¢93.5¢$281+$86$0
Will the Alaska 2026 Senate race be within 5%?Yes46972.3¢59.5¢$279−$60$0
US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?No30975¢88.5¢$273+$42$0
Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?No28095.3¢96.6¢$271+$3.63$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?86.8¢10.0k$8,68071%40
BUY YesWill Pablo Gutiérrez Lazarus win the 2027 Campeche Governor Election?71¢147$10471%40
BUY NoWill the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?93¢1,327$1,23471%40
BUY NoNATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?92¢1,400$1,28871%40
BUY No2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House92¢5,000$4,60071%40
SELL NoWill Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?5¢3,300$16671%40
SELL YesWill Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?5.1¢6,263$31871%40
SELL NoWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?31¢600$18671%40
SELL NoWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?54¢105$5771%40
BUY YesWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?98.1¢991$97271%40
BUY NoWill Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?67¢1,200$80471%40
BUY YesWill Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?68¢250$17071%40
BUY NoWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?63.8¢389$24871%40
SELL YesWill Pablo Gutiérrez Lazarus win the 2027 Campeche Governor Election?90¢566$50971%40
BUY NoWill Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win less than 44% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?77¢600$46271%40
SELL NoWill Renan Santos qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?99.8¢651$65071%40
BUY YesWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?95.7¢13$1271%40
BUY NoUS strike on Colombia by December 31?87¢100$8771%40
BUY NoWill Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?62¢100$6271%40
BUY YesWill Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?62¢100$6271%40