sharpside
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Traders/Rank #20,528

PK123

0x6d6…3781
WR 60+1y+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$2,697vol $1.23M
PnL 30d−$965gains $364 · losses $148
PnL 7d+$43win rate 7d 80.0%
Win rate60.8%adj 60.4% · 30d 63.6%
Open value$15.4kcash n/a
Positions271 / 1,571open / all-time
Max drawdown−73.4%of equity peak
Account age2.5ylast trade 3h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$4,085below peak −$2,961Oct 13

SharpScore inputs

42/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 60.8% · shrunk toward 50%51
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity27

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes11.5k6.4¢10.4¢$1,190+$455+$20
Will Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential run before 2027?No1,08086.4¢94.7¢$1,022+$89+$34
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No3,00030.8¢29.5¢$885−$40$0
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?No5,50013.3¢15.5¢$852+$123$0
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027?No95279.5¢87.5¢$833+$76+$92
Will Mark Kelly announce a Presidential run before 2027?No69684.4¢87.5¢$609+$21+$10
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Yes7,79726.9¢6.5¢$507−$1,588−$626
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?No1,25031.7¢40.5¢$506+$110+$5.60
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No1,00039.1¢35.5¢$355−$36$0
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No1,25026.8¢26.5¢$331−$3.74$0
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?Yes2,64710¢10.5¢$278+$13−$3.00
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?No1,00029.3¢27.5¢$275−$18$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 PA-07 House election by 18% or more?No28090¢96.3¢$270+$18$0
Will Jon Stewart announce a Presidential run before 2027?No25091¢95.6¢$239+$11+$8.99
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No25086.4¢94.6¢$237+$20$0
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?No50040.1¢42.5¢$213+$12$0
Will George Clooney announce a Presidential run before 2027?No21892.3¢95.5¢$208+$6.97$0
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseNo50057.8¢38.5¢$192−$97−$5.13
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseYes2,00018.2¢9.5¢$190−$175$0
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?No50037¢37.5¢$188+$2.50+$13
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No50038¢36.5¢$183−$7.50$0
Will Andy Beshear announce a Presidential run before 2027?No19986.2¢90¢$179+$7.48+$6.74
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes2,5007¢6.2¢$154−$20$0
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No1,50013.4¢9.5¢$143−$58+$31
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?No1,5008.1¢9.5¢$143+$22$0
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes1,00013.3¢14.2¢$143+$9.70$0
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes25.0k1.3¢0.5¢$138−$188$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 PA-01 House election by 9%-12%?No11482.1¢97.1¢$111+$17+$4.75
Will Raphael Warnock announce a Presidential run before 2027?No12292.3¢90.5¢$110−$2.17$0
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?No2,5006.1¢4¢$100−$53$0
Will Mark Cuban announce a Presidential run before 2027?No10092.7¢99¢$99+$6.27+$15
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 PA-01 House election by 6%-9%?No10387.2¢93.7¢$96+$6.68$0
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027?No10094.1¢95.5¢$95+$1.37+$1.45
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Yes10049¢95¢$95+$46$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 PA-07 House election by 12%-15%?No10091¢94.5¢$95+$3.50$0
Clavicular sentenced to prison by December 31, 2026?No10090¢94¢$94+$4.00$0
Will Zohran Mamdani release another song?No11053.6¢82.5¢$91+$32$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Montana Senate election by 18%-21%?No10050¢88.5¢$89+$39$0
Will Jon Stewart announce a Presidential run before 2028?No10084¢82.5¢$83−$1.50$0
Will Gretchen Whitmer announce a Presidential run before 2027?No8385¢97¢$81+$10+$3.34
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 PA-01 House election by 3%-6%?No10090.7¢80.7¢$81−$9.97$0
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes25035.2¢31.5¢$79−$9.27$0
Trump out as President before 2027?Yes2,0007.4¢3.9¢$77−$71−$250
Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?Yes1,25010.8¢6¢$75−$60−$14
Will Republicans sweep the Iowa Senate and Governor elections?No7970¢90¢$71+$16$0
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-07 House seat?No50023.9¢14¢$70−$50$0
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?No10067¢69.5¢$70+$2.50+$3.60
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Yes10048¢69.5¢$70+$22$0
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes25010¢24.5¢$61+$36$0
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?No10052¢59.5¢$60+$7.50$0
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?Yes6331¢93.5¢$59+$39$0
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes10023¢53.8¢$54+$31+$403
Will the Republican Party win the MN-01 House seat?No21822¢24.5¢$53+$5.45$0
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?No25024.7¢20.5¢$51−$10$0
Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2028?Yes8061¢62.5¢$50+$1.20$0
Tim Walz in jail by December 31?No5096.1¢99.7¢$50+$1.78$0
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?No5018¢99.6¢$50+$41+$0.03
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?No5094.5¢97.5¢$49+$1.50$0
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?Yes5358.3¢90.5¢$48+$17+$12
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 9%-12%?No5094¢93.7¢$47−$0.15$0
Will J.B. Pritzker announce a Presidential run before 2027?No5088.4¢93.5¢$46+$2.51+$3.28
Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?Yes4875.7¢95.3¢$46+$9.40$0
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for President in 2028?No10039¢45¢$45+$6.00$0
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2028?No10050¢45¢$45−$5.00$0
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?Yes5073¢88.5¢$44+$7.75$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Montana Senate election by 15%-18%?No5083¢86.5¢$43+$1.75$0
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes5,0000.8¢0.9¢$43+$2.50$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Montana Senate election by 12%-15%?No5085.8¢83.3¢$42−$1.27$0
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No5078.5¢82.3¢$41+$1.88+$0.29
Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?No11033.1¢36.5¢$40+$3.75$0
Will Rand Paul announce a presidential run before 2027?No4080.3¢94¢$38+$5.50$0
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028?Yes10038¢37.5¢$38−$0.50$0
Fetterman out by December 31, 2026?No3878.4¢97¢$37+$7.08$0
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-08 House seat?No24313¢15¢$36+$4.86$0
Will Brian Kemp announce a presidential run before 2027?No3681.4¢95¢$35+$4.96$0
Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat?Yes12025¢28.5¢$34+$4.25$0
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Yes13542.6¢24.5¢$33−$24$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No25015.8¢12.7¢$32−$7.70$0
Will Stephen Miller leave the Trump administration before 2027?No3470¢91.5¢$31+$7.31$0
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Yes5053¢61.5¢$31+$4.25$0
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?No5054¢60.5¢$30+$3.25$0
Will Democrats sweep the Ohio Senate and Governor elections?Yes5050¢59¢$30+$4.50$0
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?No5067¢57.5¢$29−$4.75$0
Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat?No10028¢28.5¢$29+$0.50$0
Will the Democratic Party control the Pennsylvania Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No5060¢54.5¢$27−$2.75$0
Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?No5062¢53.5¢$27−$4.25$0
Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026?No10027¢25.5¢$26−$1.50$0
Will Ken Martin cease to be DNC Chair by December 31, 2026?Yes9239¢27.5¢$25−$11$0
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?No2775¢94.3¢$25+$5.13$0
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?Yes25018¢10¢$25−$20$0
Will Beto O’Rourke announce a Presidential run before 2027?No2594.7¢94.7¢$24−$0.01+$17
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?No2553¢93.5¢$23+$10$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming Senate election by 45%-50%?No2585¢87.5¢$22+$0.63$0
Will Andrew Yang announce a Presidential run before 2028?No5056¢43.5¢$22−$6.25$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 30% or more?No2056.5¢99.5¢$20+$8.59−$6.57
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?No5003.9¢4¢$20+$0.25$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio Senate election by 9%-12%?No2093¢98.8¢$20+$1.15$0
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Yes10049.5¢19.5¢$20−$30$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming Senate election by 40%-45%?No2581¢77.5¢$19−$0.88$0
Will Republicans win the Ohio Governor election and Democrats win the Ohio Senate election?No2086¢96.1¢$19+$2.02$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?22¢250$5561%42
BUY NoWill the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?36¢140$5061%42
BUY NoWill J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?51.3¢50$2661%42
BUY NoWill the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat?28¢100$2861%42
BUY NoWill Beto O’Rourke announce a Presidential run before 2027?94.7¢25$2461%42
SELL NoWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027?88¢360$31761%42
BUY NoWill Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential run before 2027?80.1¢20$1661%42
SELL NoWill Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?85¢100$8561%42
BUY NoNatalie Harp out as Special Assistant to the President by December 31?92¢6$5.3061%42
BUY NoNatalie Harp out as Special Assistant to the President by December 31?91¢6$5.2461%42
BUY NoWill the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 12% or more?96.4¢10$9.6461%42
BUY NoWill the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?14¢150$2161%42
SELL NoWill the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?86¢50$4361%42
BUY NoWill the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?3.9¢100$3.9061%42
BUY YesWill Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?6.9¢2,250$15561%42
BUY NoWill the Republican Party win the MN-01 House seat?22¢218$4861%42
BUY NoWill the Republican Party win the AZ-08 House seat?13¢243$3261%42
BUY YesWill the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?10¢2,647$26561%42
BUY NoWill the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?38¢400$15261%42
BUY NoWill the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?29¢750$21861%42