| Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | 83.4k | 82.6¢ | 96.5¢ | $80.4k | +$11.6k | +$869 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 51.4k | 82.6¢ | 94.5¢ | $48.6k | +$6,107 | −$1,566 | |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 50.7k | 77.3¢ | 87.6¢ | $44.5k | +$5,233 | −$112 | |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? | No | 40.0k | 88¢ | 90.5¢ | $36.2k | +$1,000 | $0 | |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 24.0k | 81¢ | 97.1¢ | $23.3k | +$3,864 | +$92 | |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | No | 21.8k | 83.3¢ | 90.5¢ | $19.7k | +$1,569 | $0 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | 20.0k | 94¢ | 96.2¢ | $19.2k | +$440 | +$1,562 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 24.2k | 73.9¢ | 79.5¢ | $19.2k | +$1,365 | +$2,662 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 17.3k | 87.5¢ | 96.7¢ | $16.7k | +$1,595 | +$453 | |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | No | 14.7k | 86.4¢ | 92.5¢ | $13.6k | +$893 | $0 | |
| Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? | No | 14.2k | 73.3¢ | 96¢ | $13.6k | +$3,213 | −$139 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | No | 23.0k | 41.4¢ | 52¢ | $12.0k | +$2,418 | $0 | |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | No | 13.3k | 84.3¢ | 89.1¢ | $11.9k | +$628 | +$258 | |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | 11.2k | 81.3¢ | 94.6¢ | $10.6k | +$1,493 | +$327 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | No | 8,649 | 75.4¢ | 94.5¢ | $8,173 | +$1,651 | +$1,106 | |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? | No | 7,675 | 79.4¢ | 94.4¢ | $7,245 | +$1,150 | +$170 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | No | 7,330 | 85.4¢ | 90.5¢ | $6,634 | +$376 | −$50 | |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | 8,122 | 64.6¢ | 81.5¢ | $6,619 | +$1,375 | +$1,571 | |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | No | 6,964 | 86.3¢ | 93.7¢ | $6,526 | +$519 | +$295 | |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | No | 6,500 | 80¢ | 96.4¢ | $6,266 | +$1,066 | $0 | |
| Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? | No | 6,478 | 86.8¢ | 95.5¢ | $6,187 | +$563 | $0 | |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 6,400 | 62.8¢ | 94.5¢ | $6,048 | +$2,029 | +$1,299 | |
| US strike on Mexico by December 31? | No | 5,680 | 69.4¢ | 96.3¢ | $5,467 | +$1,528 | $0 | |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 5,000 | 64¢ | 96.1¢ | $4,805 | +$1,605 | $0 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 7,234 | 62¢ | 64.5¢ | $4,666 | +$181 | $0 | |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | No | 7,294 | 26.6¢ | 57¢ | $4,157 | +$2,216 | +$215 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | No | 4,537 | 85.7¢ | 85.5¢ | $3,879 | −$6.93 | +$1,489 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 34.6k | 11¢ | 10.5¢ | $3,630 | −$173 | $0 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | No | 3,877 | 52.4¢ | 92.5¢ | $3,586 | +$1,555 | +$2,963 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 5,121 | 61.9¢ | 69.5¢ | $3,559 | +$387 | $0 | |
| UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? | No | 3,906 | 81¢ | 89.5¢ | $3,496 | +$331 | −$444 | |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) | No | 3,847 | 63.2¢ | 83¢ | $3,193 | +$760 | +$1,014 | |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 4,209 | 58.5¢ | 71.3¢ | $2,999 | +$538 | −$3,212 | |
| OpenAI IPO before 2027? | No | 2,823 | 80.9¢ | 97.3¢ | $2,746 | +$462 | $0 | |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | No | 3,000 | 65¢ | 89.5¢ | $2,685 | +$735 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 6,500 | 76.7¢ | 41¢ | $2,665 | −$2,320 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | No | 2,876 | 74¢ | 87¢ | $2,502 | +$374 | +$56 | |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? | No | 2,800 | 85.5¢ | 86.5¢ | $2,422 | +$28 | $0 | |
| Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31? | No | 2,492 | 88.1¢ | 94.3¢ | $2,350 | +$154 | +$20 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes | 3,810 | 65.6¢ | 61.5¢ | $2,343 | −$157 | +$1,836 | |
| Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | No | 2,177 | 88.7¢ | 95.4¢ | $2,076 | +$144 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes | 5,684 | 39.1¢ | 36¢ | $2,046 | −$176 | −$335 | |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? | No | 2,259 | 81¢ | 81.5¢ | $1,841 | +$11 | $0 | |
| Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | Yes | 2,197 | 56.8¢ | 73.5¢ | $1,615 | +$367 | +$152 | |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | Yes | 8,705 | 17¢ | 18¢ | $1,567 | +$86 | +$328 | |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | Yes | 8,000 | 14.8¢ | 19¢ | $1,520 | +$337 | $0 | |
| Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? | No | 1,521 | 62.1¢ | 94.5¢ | $1,437 | +$493 | $0 | |
| Will exactly 2 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed? | Yes | 5,000 | 24¢ | 28.5¢ | $1,425 | +$225 | $0 | |
| Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? | Yes | 4,358 | 25¢ | 21.5¢ | $937 | −$153 | $0 | |
| Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? | No | 930 | 91.8¢ | 91.5¢ | $851 | −$3.11 | $0 | |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | No | 885 | 74¢ | 88.5¢ | $783 | +$128 | −$104 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 5,000 | 17¢ | 15.5¢ | $775 | −$75 | −$2,425 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | No | 4,000 | 29¢ | 18.5¢ | $740 | −$420 | −$356 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | Yes | 984 | 68.9¢ | 65.5¢ | $644 | −$33 | $0 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 7,488 | 11.8¢ | 8.5¢ | $636 | −$249 | −$286 | |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | Yes | 756 | 61¢ | 83¢ | $627 | +$166 | $0 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | Yes | 5,705 | 15¢ | 9.5¢ | $542 | −$314 | −$119 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | No | 9,798 | 10¢ | 5.5¢ | $539 | −$441 | +$10 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | No | 613 | 50¢ | 64¢ | $392 | +$86 | $0 | |
| Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027? | No | 383 | 70.7¢ | 97.4¢ | $373 | +$102 | $0 | |
| Anne Hathaway baby: Boy or Girl? | Girl | 728 | 48¢ | 50¢ | $364 | +$15 | $0 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | 256 | 83.2¢ | 97¢ | $248 | +$35 | $0 | |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31? | Yes | 235 | 91¢ | 99.5¢ | $234 | +$20 | $0 | |
| Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in the United States by December 31, 2026? | No | 200 | 89.8¢ | 97.4¢ | $195 | +$15 | $0 | |
| Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? | Yes | 271 | 56.2¢ | 71.4¢ | $193 | +$41 | $0 | |
| Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 2,523 | 5.9¢ | 7.5¢ | $189 | +$41 | +$380 | |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? | No | 197 | 78.6¢ | 92.5¢ | $183 | +$27 | $0 | |
| Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 15, 2026? | Yes | 202 | 55.2¢ | 83.5¢ | $169 | +$57 | $0 | |
| Will Egypt join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? | No | 170 | 81¢ | 90.5¢ | $154 | +$16 | $0 | |
| Iran leadership change by October 31? | Yes | 10,000 | 2.9¢ | 1.5¢ | $145 | −$145 | $0 | |
| Maduro guilty of all counts? | No | 193 | 41¢ | 66¢ | $128 | +$48 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? | Yes | 243 | 72.8¢ | 40.7¢ | $99 | −$78 | $0 | |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 100 | 81¢ | 97.9¢ | $98 | +$17 | −$460 | |
| Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2027? | No | 110 | 63.8¢ | 78.5¢ | $87 | +$16 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? | Yes | 277 | 38¢ | 31¢ | $86 | −$19 | $0 | |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | No | 87 | 12¢ | 87¢ | $76 | +$65 | $0 | |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? | No | 66 | 55¢ | 94¢ | $62 | +$26 | $0 | |
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | No | 462 | 36¢ | 12.9¢ | $59 | −$107 | $0 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | Yes | 2,709 | 6.2¢ | 2.1¢ | $56 | −$113 | −$1,231 | |
| Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Qatar by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 301 | 11.8¢ | 18.4¢ | $55 | +$20 | $0 | |
| NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? | No | 38 | 71¢ | 91.5¢ | $35 | +$7.78 | $0 | |
| Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | No | 20 | 54¢ | 96.9¢ | $19 | +$8.57 | $0 | |
| Congress approves Iran deal in 2026? | No | 10 | 35¢ | 87.5¢ | $8.75 | +$5.25 | $0 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 48 | 9.6¢ | 14.5¢ | $6.92 | +$2.34 | +$19 | |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 52 | 4.2¢ | 3.2¢ | $1.65 | −$0.55 | $0 | |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | Yes | 10.2k | 6.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$666 | −$101 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | No | 4,896 | 8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$392 | +$123 | |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30? | Yes | 2,746 | 59¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,621 | −$1,593 | |
