PnL all-time+$4,618vol $610k
PnL 30d−$1,499gains $2,134 · losses $3,908
PnL 7d−$112win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate64.7%adj 60.6% · 30d 62.5%
Open value$14.7kcash n/a
Positions9 / 60open / all-time
Max drawdown−62.1%of equity peak
Account age1.0ylast trade 7h ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$4,042below peak −$5,183Oct 9
SharpScore inputs
46/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale52
Adjusted win rateraw 64.7% · shrunk toward 50%52
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable59
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity38
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20-30%? · Noclosed+$2,735Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? · Noclosed+$2,083Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? · Noclosed+$1,840Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? · Noclosed+$1,513Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? · Noclosed+$754
Worst markets
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31? · Noclosed−$2,997Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30? · Yesclosed−$1,809Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yesopen−$1,520Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? · Noclosed−$1,165Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30? · Noclosed−$1,084
Open positions · 9
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 7,766 | 94.7¢ | 95.7¢ | $7,428 | +$70 | $0 | |
| Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026? | No | 2,512 | 93.1¢ | 95.5¢ | $2,399 | +$60 | +$0.48 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 2,608 | 85.5¢ | 88¢ | $2,295 | +$65 | $0 | |
| Will Indonesia recognize Israel by December 31? | No | 1,731 | 89.7¢ | 95.9¢ | $1,660 | +$106 | +$69 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 3,200 | 63¢ | 15.5¢ | $496 | −$1,520 | $0 | |
| Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027? | No | 391 | 95.1¢ | 96.9¢ | $379 | +$7.01 | +$11 | |
| Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 10.0k | 0.2¢ | 0.1¢ | $5.00 | −$15 | $0 | |
| Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 10.0k | 0.2¢ | 0.1¢ | $5.00 | −$15 | $0 | |
| Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 9,999 | 0.2¢ | 0.1¢ | $5.00 | −$15 | $0 |
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