sharpside
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Traders/Rank #9,042

warptrading

0x6f0…54d3@warptrading
WR 80+WR 70+WR 60+PoliticsOtherCryptoCulture
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$5,404vol $1.30M
PnL 30d−$203gains $559 · losses $64
PnL 7d+$9.98win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate89.6%adj 88.1% · 30d 86.7%
Open value$16.3kcash n/a
Positions624 / 6,648open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age8molast trade 3mo ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$3,079below peak −$4,512Oct 14

SharpScore inputs

36/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 89.6% · shrunk toward 50%100
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?Yes60371¢99.2¢$598+$170−$15
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?No60025¢92.8¢$557+$407$0
Will Ethena dip to $0.04 by December 31, 2026?No62364¢87.5¢$545+$146$0
Printr FDV above $50M one day after launch?No47427¢91¢$431+$303$0
Will Yennefer of Vengerberg die during "The Witcher: Season 5"?No1,36411¢24¢$327+$177$0
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement?No38539¢83.5¢$321+$171$0
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?No31947¢91.6¢$292+$142$0
Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?Yes62524¢46.5¢$291+$141$0
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?No32815¢86.5¢$284+$235+$37
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?No28356¢95.1¢$269+$111$0
US strike on Cuba by December 31?No28854.8¢89.5¢$258+$100$0
Will the Republican Party win the IL-17 House seat?No26357¢97.7¢$257+$107$0
Will Kendrick Lamar release an album in 2026?No34943¢73¢$255+$105$0
Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026?No24262¢99.6¢$241+$91$0
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026?No23863¢93.5¢$223+$73$0
Will Missouri use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?No21723¢97.4¢$212+$162$0
Blue wave in 2026?Yes24668.3¢84.5¢$208+$40$0
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?No20075¢96.9¢$194+$44$0
Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?No19776¢98.1¢$194+$44$0
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No25060¢76.5¢$191+$41$0
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?No21723¢86¢$187+$137$0
Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026?Yes19079¢96.4¢$183+$33$0
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027?No18382¢98.4¢$180+$30$0
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska governor race in 2026?Yes20374¢88.5¢$179+$29$0
Will Cleveland Browns win the 2026 AFC North?No19079¢93.9¢$178+$28$0
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?No34144¢51.5¢$175+$26$0
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?No17685¢98.8¢$174+$24$0
US strike on Colombia by December 31?No20872¢77.5¢$161+$11$0
Will Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Yes18581¢86.5¢$160+$10$0
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?No17067¢93¢$158+$44$0
Will the Republicans win the South Dakota governor race in 2026?Yes15881¢98.2¢$155+$27$0
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?No25660¢59.5¢$152−$1.28+$360
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?No16070¢92.5¢$148+$36$0
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch?No16335.8¢88¢$143+$85$0
Will Geralt of Rivia die during "The Witcher: Season 5"?No1,00015¢14¢$140−$10$0
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?Yes18527¢73.5¢$136+$86$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes15637.1¢86¢$134+$76$0
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?Yes38816¢32.7¢$127+$65$0
Will Ethena dip to $0.04 by December 31, 2026?Yes95747.6¢12.5¢$120−$336$0
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-18 House seat?Yes11769.9¢95.2¢$111+$30$0
Will Theo launch a token by December 31 2026?No19226¢54.1¢$104+$54$0
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?No12241¢84¢$102+$52$0
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch?No11643¢86.5¢$101+$51$0
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%?No12761¢79.3¢$101+$23$0
Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?No10087¢99¢$99+$12$0
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between seven and nine nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?No10075¢96.5¢$96+$21$0
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?No10072¢96.4¢$96+$24$0
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?No10360¢93.1¢$96+$34$0
Will Sabrina Carpenter be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?No9165¢99.9¢$91+$32$0
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?No9453¢95¢$90+$40$0
Cuban regime falls in 2026?No10061.5¢89¢$89+$28−$0.05
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?No9945¢90¢$89+$44$0
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?No9155¢97.5¢$89+$39$0
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2026?No10647¢82.5¢$88+$38$0
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?No10072¢86.5¢$87+$15$0
Ledger IPO before 2027?No8426¢97.8¢$82+$60$0
Will Cătălin Drulă be the next Prime Minister of Romania?No8187¢100¢$81+$10$0
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?No10072¢80.5¢$81+$8.50$0
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes9354¢85.5¢$79+$29$0
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026?No12839¢61¢$78+$28$0
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?No8857¢89¢$78+$28−$7.05
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?No8658¢90.5¢$78+$28$0
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Yes8261¢95¢$78+$28−$30
OpenAI IPO before 2027?No8162¢96.5¢$78+$28$0
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No9155¢83.5¢$76+$26$0
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Yes7655.4¢100¢$76+$34−$36
GTA 6 launch postponed again?No7864¢96.1¢$75+$25$0
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?Yes31348¢24¢$75−$75$0
Will Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential run before 2027?No7967¢94.5¢$75+$22$0
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?No8162¢90¢$73+$23$0
Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?No7567¢95.6¢$71+$21$0
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes17229¢40.5¢$70+$20$0
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?No7765¢90.3¢$69+$19$0
Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?Yes33049¢21¢$69−$93$0
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?No7170¢96.5¢$69+$19$0
Will Zohran Mamdani be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?No7071¢96¢$68+$18$0
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?No7071¢96¢$68+$18$0
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?No10946¢61.5¢$67+$17$0
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?No6972¢96.2¢$67+$17$0
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?No7079¢94.9¢$67+$11$0
AI bubble burst in 2026?No7071¢93.8¢$66+$16$0
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be less than 3.00%?No6577¢99.9¢$65+$15$0
StandX FDV above $400M one day after launch?No7666¢85.5¢$65+$15$0
MagicBlock FDV above $10M one day after launch?Yes18880¢34.4¢$65−$86$0
Will Taqaddom Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?No6379¢100¢$63+$13$0
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?Yes7949.6¢80.5¢$63+$24+$0.74
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?No6778.1¢94.5¢$63+$11$0
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No6577¢95.5¢$62+$12$0
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?No6478¢96.7¢$62+$12$0
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?No8162¢76.5¢$62+$12$0
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?No12339¢50¢$62+$14$0
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?No6281¢97.6¢$60+$10$0
Will Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?No6972¢86.6¢$60+$10$0
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?No6380¢96.1¢$60+$10$0
Will the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No6874¢88.5¢$60+$9.80$0
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?No6182¢97.7¢$60+$9.54$0
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?No6084¢100¢$59+$9.49$0
Stripe IPO before 2027?No6182¢97.2¢$59+$9.24$0
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?Yes6676¢89.3¢$59+$8.72−$48
Will the Republican Party win the OK-03 House seat?Yes6180.1¢96.1¢$59+$9.78$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY CroatiaPortugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advance25.3¢100$2590%36
BUY CroatiaPortugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advance25.9¢200$5290%36
SELL YesWill Ghana win on 2026-06-17?97¢1,000$97090%36
SELL YesStarmer out by May 31, 2026?28.4¢982$27990%36
BUY YesStarmer out by May 31, 2026?32¢982$31490%36
BUY YesWill Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?11.7¢420$4990%36
BUY MakhmudovBoxing: Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov17¢190$3290%36
BUY MakhmudovBoxing: Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov17¢285$4890%36
SELL G2 EsportsLoL: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season46¢1,000$46090%36
BUY YesWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?29¢69$2090%36
BUY MakhmudovBoxing: Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov17¢1,900$32390%36
SELL NoExtended FDV above $300M one day after launch?68¢2,000$1,36090%36
SELL DownEthereum Up or Down - February 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET99.9¢73$7390%36
BUY NoWill Paradex launch a token on March 5?1.9¢490$9.3190%36
BUY YesWill Paradex launch a token on March 5?96.4¢8,543$8,23490%36
BUY YesWill Paradex launch a token on March 5?97¢1,888$1,83290%36
BUY YesWill Paradex launch a token on March 5?95¢1,053$1,00090%36
BUY Team Orange GamingLoL: Berlin International Gaming vs Team Orange Gaming (BO3) - Prime League 1st Division Playoffs11¢22$2.4290%36
BUY UpBitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET49¢10$5.0590%36
BUY UpBitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET49¢10$4.9990%36