PnL all-time+$8,963vol $648k
PnL 30d−$2,722gains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d$0win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate69.2%adj 60.9% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$15.7kcash n/a
Positions6 / 32open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age1.9ylast trade 3mo ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL−$38.2kbelow peak −$56.3kOct 10
SharpScore inputs
26/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale56
Adjusted win rateraw 69.2% · shrunk toward 50%52
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable50
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? · Noclosed+$8,802Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? · Yesclosed+$7,907Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? · Yesclosed+$6,375US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? · Yesclosed+$4,426US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? · Noclosed+$2,698
Worst markets
Iran leadership change by December 31? · Yesopen−$47.2kWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yesclosed−$7,958Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yesclosed−$7,048US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · Noopen−$6,000US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · Noopen−$4,437
Open positions · 6
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 136k | 46.2¢ | 11.5¢ | $15.7k | −$47.2k | $0 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 12.6k | 47.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$6,000 | $0 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 8,848 | 63.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5,600 | +$1,163 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 2,393 | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$51 | $0 | |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026? | Yes | 1,050 | 9.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$100 | $0 | |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | Yes | 761 | 26.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$200 | $0 |
Recent trades
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