| Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | No | 742 | 18.6¢ | 67¢ | $497 | +$359 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? | No | 500 | 17¢ | 88.5¢ | $442 | +$357 | $0 | |
| Will Apyx launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | 713 | 11.2¢ | 50.3¢ | $359 | +$279 | +$16 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | No | 341 | 29.4¢ | 99.6¢ | $339 | +$239 | $0 | |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Maranhão? | Yes | 320 | 91.7¢ | 97.4¢ | $312 | +$18 | $0 | |
| Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | 400 | 27¢ | 74.5¢ | $298 | +$190 | $0 | |
| Will MagicBlock launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | 449 | 23.5¢ | 65¢ | $292 | +$186 | $0 | |
| Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027? | No | 313 | 22.3¢ | 91.5¢ | $286 | +$217 | $0 | |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | No | 300 | 77¢ | 93.5¢ | $281 | +$50 | $0 | |
| Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | 396 | 20.2¢ | 70.5¢ | $279 | +$199 | $0 | |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | No | 300 | 42.9¢ | 89¢ | $267 | +$138 | $0 | |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | Yes | 450 | 26.9¢ | 58.5¢ | $263 | +$142 | $0 | |
| Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | No | 400 | 26¢ | 65.5¢ | $262 | +$158 | $0 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | No | 300 | 46¢ | 84.5¢ | $254 | +$116 | $0 | |
| Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? | No | 300 | 21.9¢ | 80¢ | $240 | +$174 | +$118 | |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | 400 | 46.6¢ | 59.5¢ | $238 | +$52 | $0 | |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 250 | 52¢ | 89¢ | $223 | +$93 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? | No | 281 | 19.9¢ | 72.7¢ | $204 | +$149 | +$0.73 | |
| Will South Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | No | 197 | 30.4¢ | 99.9¢ | $197 | +$137 | $0 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? | No | 300 | 36.7¢ | 61.5¢ | $185 | +$75 | $0 | |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31? | No | 400 | 22¢ | 46¢ | $184 | +$96 | $0 | |
| Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? | No | 200 | 19¢ | 91.5¢ | $183 | +$145 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? | No | 240 | 19¢ | 73.5¢ | $176 | +$131 | $0 | |
| Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026? | No | 713 | 14.4¢ | 24.7¢ | $176 | +$73 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? | No | 248 | 8.6¢ | 68.8¢ | $170 | +$149 | −$6.63 | |
| Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | No | 170 | 22.5¢ | 99.6¢ | $170 | +$131 | $0 | |
| No one announced as next James Bond? | Yes | 600 | 19.6¢ | 26.8¢ | $161 | +$43 | $0 | |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas? | Yes | 300 | 15¢ | 52¢ | $156 | +$111 | +$33 | |
| Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | No | 420 | 13.1¢ | 37¢ | $155 | +$101 | $0 | |
| Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 800 | 23.8¢ | 19¢ | $152 | −$38 | $0 | |
| Will Kenneth Östberg be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västmanland? | No | 155 | 24¢ | 96¢ | $149 | +$111 | $0 | |
| Will Trump speak to Andy Burnham by October 31? | No | 190 | 28¢ | 78¢ | $148 | +$95 | $0 | |
| Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by December 31, 2026? | No | 158 | 82.2¢ | 93.7¢ | $148 | +$18 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | No | 240 | 36.8¢ | 58.5¢ | $140 | +$52 | $0 | |
| Gemini Argon released by October 31, 2026? | No | 900 | 10.3¢ | 15¢ | $135 | +$42 | $0 | |
| Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | Yes | 800 | 12¢ | 16.5¢ | $132 | +$36 | $0 | |
| Will Ritual launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | 500 | 17.5¢ | 26.4¢ | $132 | +$44 | $0 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 400 | 30¢ | 31.5¢ | $126 | +$6.00 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 303 | 23.5¢ | 41.5¢ | $126 | +$54 | $0 | |
| Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | 254 | 23.9¢ | 43.5¢ | $111 | +$50 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 350 | 16¢ | 31.5¢ | $110 | +$54 | $0 | |
| Will the National Rally group hold 13 or more French Senate seats after the 2026 election? | Yes | 111 | 7.1¢ | 95.9¢ | $106 | +$99 | $0 | |
| Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | Yes | 662 | 22.1¢ | 15.9¢ | $105 | −$41 | $0 | |
| Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 1,673 | 7.8¢ | 6.2¢ | $104 | −$27 | $0 | |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Paraná? | Yes | 100 | 92¢ | 98.7¢ | $99 | +$6.65 | $0 | |
| Blue wave in 2026? | No | 700 | 12.8¢ | 13.5¢ | $95 | +$4.96 | $0 | |
| Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026? | No | 406 | 20.8¢ | 22.5¢ | $91 | +$7.05 | $0 | |
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 100 | 86¢ | 86.2¢ | $86 | +$0.15 | $0 | |
| Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? | No | 100 | 35¢ | 82.6¢ | $83 | +$48 | $0 | |
| Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026? | No | 177 | 38¢ | 45¢ | $79 | +$12 | $0 | |
| Arizona passes traffic camera ballot measure? | No | 400 | 21¢ | 19.5¢ | $78 | −$6.00 | $0 | |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | No | 400 | 23¢ | 19.5¢ | $78 | −$14 | $0 | |
| Will Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri be the next Prime Minister of Morocco? | Yes | 82 | 83.3¢ | 94.5¢ | $78 | +$9.23 | $0 | |
| Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31? | No | 438 | 16.5¢ | 16.5¢ | $72 | +$0.19 | $0 | |
| Will François Hollande announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | Yes | 219 | 27¢ | 32.5¢ | $71 | +$12 | $0 | |
| Will there be no Meta Watermelon model release by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 267 | 22¢ | 26.5¢ | $71 | +$12 | $0 | |
| Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas, NV by December 31 2026? | No | 264 | 29.3¢ | 26¢ | $69 | −$8.70 | $0 | |
| Sweden snap election called in 2026? | Yes | 400 | 13¢ | 16.5¢ | $66 | +$14 | $0 | |
| Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | 450 | 19.1¢ | 12.7¢ | $57 | −$29 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat? | Yes | 200 | 33¢ | 28.5¢ | $57 | −$9.00 | $0 | |
| Will Per Svensson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Halland? | Yes | 259 | 14.8¢ | 22¢ | $57 | +$19 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party win the NJ-02 House seat? | No | 330 | 19¢ | 16.5¢ | $54 | −$8.25 | $0 | |
| Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | Yes | 1,000 | 9¢ | 4.5¢ | $45 | −$45 | $0 | |
| Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 140 | 35¢ | 32¢ | $45 | −$4.20 | $0 | |
| Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | 69 | 26¢ | 64.5¢ | $44 | +$26 | $0 | |
| Will CNN fly with Trump by October 31? | Yes | 350 | 19¢ | 12.5¢ | $44 | −$23 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat? | No | 144 | 26¢ | 28.5¢ | $41 | +$3.61 | $0 | |
| Will the National Rally group hold fewer than 10 French Senate seats after the 2026 election? | No | 41 | 40¢ | 99.8¢ | $41 | +$25 | $0 | |
| Will Marie Morell be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Östergötland? | Yes | 258 | 19¢ | 14¢ | $36 | −$13 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 23, 2026? | No | 40 | 14¢ | 89.5¢ | $36 | +$30 | $0 | |
| Will the next Grok model (4.8+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? | No | 85 | 12.5¢ | 41.5¢ | $35 | +$25 | $0 | |
| Will Angelica Katsanidou be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Kalmar County? | No | 244 | 10.2¢ | 14.2¢ | $35 | +$9.79 | $0 | |
| Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by October 31, 2026? | No | 114 | 17.9¢ | 29.5¢ | $34 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will Ken Welch win the St. Petersburg mayoral election? | Yes | 360 | 9.9¢ | 9.3¢ | $33 | −$2.07 | $0 | |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad? | Yes | 50 | 38¢ | 62.5¢ | $31 | +$12 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026? | No | 239 | 24.9¢ | 11.5¢ | $27 | −$32 | $0 | |
| Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? | Yes | 250 | 12¢ | 10.5¢ | $26 | −$3.75 | $0 | |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 92 | 33¢ | 28.5¢ | $26 | −$4.14 | $0 | |
| Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 253 | 22.3¢ | 9.7¢ | $24 | −$32 | $0 | |
| Will Louisiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | No | 248 | 18.3¢ | 9.5¢ | $24 | −$22 | $0 | |
| Will Lars Holmin be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västra Götaland? | Yes | 362 | 18¢ | 6.5¢ | $23 | −$42 | $0 | |
| Will Rodri finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 160 | 13.2¢ | 14.5¢ | $23 | +$2.10 | $0 | |
| Will Malin Sjölander be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Kalmar County? | Yes | 245 | 6.1¢ | 9.2¢ | $22 | +$7.45 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 182 | 17.7¢ | 11.5¢ | $21 | −$11 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026? | No | 207 | 18.2¢ | 9.5¢ | $20 | −$18 | $0 | |
| Will StandX launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | 45 | 23¢ | 43.5¢ | $20 | +$9.22 | $0 | |
| Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 88 | 18.6¢ | 22¢ | $19 | +$2.97 | $0 | |
| Will Ewa Pajor finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 20 | 14¢ | 97¢ | $19 | +$17 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026? | No | 809 | 13.6¢ | 2.3¢ | $19 | −$92 | $0 | |
| Will Helena Proos be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Uppsala? | No | 520 | 5.8¢ | 3.2¢ | $17 | −$14 | $0 | |
| Will Eva Lindberg be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Gävleborg? | No | 172 | 5.7¢ | 9.1¢ | $16 | +$5.84 | +$144 | |
| Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | No | 275 | 29¢ | 5¢ | $14 | −$66 | $0 | |
| Will there be no Gemini Argon release by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 90 | 14.5¢ | 15.1¢ | $14 | +$0.54 | $0 | |
| Will Waymo launch in San Diego, CA by December 31 2026? | No | 62 | 24.7¢ | 21.5¢ | $13 | −$2.00 | $0 | |
| Will Waymo launch in Tampa, FL by December 31 2026? | No | 57 | 35.9¢ | 23.4¢ | $13 | −$7.13 | $0 | |
| Will Waymo launch in Denver, CO by December 31 2026? | No | 59 | 24.8¢ | 20.5¢ | $12 | −$2.57 | $0 | |
| Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2026? | Yes | 312 | 15.1¢ | 3.8¢ | $12 | −$35 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? | No | 350 | 20¢ | 3.3¢ | $12 | −$58 | $0 | |
| Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 1,208 | 3.8¢ | 1¢ | $11 | −$34 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the NM-02 House seat? | No | 270 | 12¢ | 4.2¢ | $11 | −$21 | $0 | |
