| Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | Yes | 7,454 | 49.3¢ | 81.5¢ | $6,075 | +$2,400 | +$837 | |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | Yes | 7,573 | 60.8¢ | 75¢ | $5,680 | +$1,077 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 17.4k | 16.7¢ | 24.5¢ | $4,256 | +$1,362 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 3,319 | 86.8¢ | 99.1¢ | $3,289 | +$407 | $0 | |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 3,844 | 34.8¢ | 84.8¢ | $3,258 | +$1,922 | +$379 | |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? | Yes | 2,703 | 31.2¢ | 91.5¢ | $2,473 | +$1,629 | $0 | |
| Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | No | 2,623 | 69.2¢ | 83.5¢ | $2,190 | +$375 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | Yes | 8,207 | 29.9¢ | 26.5¢ | $2,175 | −$277 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 3,105 | 65.7¢ | 68.5¢ | $2,127 | +$86 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | Yes | 3,658 | 73.1¢ | 56¢ | $2,049 | −$624 | −$171 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 4,579 | 64.6¢ | 41.5¢ | $1,900 | −$1,058 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 2,167 | 81.1¢ | 86¢ | $1,863 | +$106 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 4,196 | 21.8¢ | 42.5¢ | $1,783 | +$870 | $0 | |
| Meta's Watermelon released by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 1,746 | 86.2¢ | 94.5¢ | $1,650 | +$145 | $0 | |
| Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 2,447 | 72.5¢ | 66.5¢ | $1,627 | −$146 | $0 | |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,674 | 79.4¢ | 97¢ | $1,623 | +$293 | $0 | |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 15.7k | 6.7¢ | 10.3¢ | $1,605 | +$562 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? | No | 1,694 | 25.5¢ | 90¢ | $1,524 | +$1,092 | +$50 | |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,641 | 66.3¢ | 88¢ | $1,444 | +$355 | $0 | |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 19.5k | 13.7¢ | 7.4¢ | $1,435 | −$1,243 | +$37 | |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 2,381 | 29.5¢ | 58.3¢ | $1,388 | +$685 | $0 | |
| Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,402 | 65.1¢ | 79¢ | $1,107 | +$194 | +$57 | |
| Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Yes | 2,000 | 48¢ | 55.4¢ | $1,107 | +$147 | +$9.20 | |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Yes | 10.0k | 23.4¢ | 8¢ | $801 | −$1,541 | +$7.76 | |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 6,237 | 12.8¢ | 12.8¢ | $798 | +$0.51 | +$82 | |
| Next DeepSeek Pro released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 2,000 | 21.5¢ | 39¢ | $780 | +$350 | $0 | |
| Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,200 | 72¢ | 55¢ | $660 | −$204 | −$9.29 | |
| Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $45 in 2026? | Yes | 1,163 | 18¢ | 52.5¢ | $611 | +$402 | $0 | |
| OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? | Yes | 605 | 71.9¢ | 88.4¢ | $535 | +$100 | +$89 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 1,070 | 11.9¢ | 50¢ | $535 | +$408 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 5,064 | 66.4¢ | 10¢ | $506 | −$2,854 | −$53 | |
| Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026? | Yes | 4,262 | 17.3¢ | 11.5¢ | $490 | −$248 | +$1.24 | |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 500 | 90¢ | 96¢ | $480 | +$30 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2,578 | 36¢ | 18.5¢ | $477 | −$452 | $0 | |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026? | No | 621 | 23.2¢ | 76¢ | $472 | +$328 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 537 | 76.4¢ | 85¢ | $456 | +$46 | $0 | |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? | No | 546 | 59.1¢ | 77¢ | $421 | +$98 | −$312 | |
| US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? | Yes | 2,516 | 15.4¢ | 16.5¢ | $415 | +$27 | +$63 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? | No | 2,475 | 23.2¢ | 14¢ | $347 | −$228 | $0 | |
| Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027? | No | 500 | 70¢ | 67¢ | $335 | −$15 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | No | 4,929 | 7.7¢ | 6.5¢ | $320 | −$60 | $0 | |
| Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)? | Yes | 324 | 87.1¢ | 97.2¢ | $315 | +$33 | $0 | |
| Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 577 | 72.9¢ | 50¢ | $288 | −$132 | $0 | |
| Will DeepSeek IPO by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 750 | 37.6¢ | 37¢ | $277 | −$4.50 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? | No | 451 | 14.6¢ | 58.2¢ | $262 | +$197 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? | Yes | 531 | 64.3¢ | 42¢ | $223 | −$119 | −$15 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | No | 236 | 87.4¢ | 93.6¢ | $220 | +$15 | $0 | |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026? | No | 251 | 50.8¢ | 82.5¢ | $207 | +$79 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 12, 2026? | No | 224 | 82.6¢ | 88.5¢ | $198 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | Yes | 847 | 28.3¢ | 22.5¢ | $191 | −$49 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 403 | 41¢ | 44.5¢ | $180 | +$14 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | No | 419 | 36¢ | 42.5¢ | $178 | +$27 | −$1.63 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher? | Yes | 406 | 86¢ | 43.5¢ | $177 | −$173 | $0 | |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026? | No | 186 | 70¢ | 94.5¢ | $176 | +$46 | $0 | |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 1,300 | 15¢ | 13.5¢ | $175 | −$19 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Yes | 24.6k | 1.2¢ | 0.6¢ | $148 | −$144 | +$23 | |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT? | Yes | 667 | 7.5¢ | 21.6¢ | $144 | +$94 | $0 | |
| Gemini Argon released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 176 | 89.8¢ | 80.5¢ | $142 | −$16 | $0 | |
| Will DeepSeek IPO by March 31, 2027? | Yes | 1,065 | 24.7¢ | 12.5¢ | $133 | −$129 | $0 | |
| Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 448 | 44.3¢ | 25¢ | $112 | −$87 | $0 | |
| Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | No | 180 | 19¢ | 55.5¢ | $100 | +$66 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.35T by October 31? | Yes | 473 | 16.8¢ | 21¢ | $99 | +$20 | $0 | |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 155 | 41.3¢ | 57.9¢ | $90 | +$26 | $0 | |
| Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027? | No | 91 | 99.1¢ | 96.8¢ | $88 | −$2.15 | +$21 | |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 12.7k | 1.1¢ | 0.7¢ | $83 | −$52 | $0 | |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31? | No | 123 | 67¢ | 58.5¢ | $72 | −$10 | $0 | |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 214 | 35¢ | 32.5¢ | $70 | −$5.35 | +$252 | |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 157 | 55¢ | 42.5¢ | $67 | −$20 | +$0.01 | |
| OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? | Yes | 1,853 | 33.9¢ | 3.4¢ | $62 | −$566 | −$81 | |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? | Yes | 97 | 59.2¢ | 63¢ | $61 | +$3.72 | $0 | |
| Meta's Watermelon released by October 15, 2026? | Yes | 100 | 48¢ | 60¢ | $60 | +$12 | $0 | |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? | Yes | 74 | 68.4¢ | 72.5¢ | $54 | +$3.05 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027? | Yes | 2,483 | 5.7¢ | 2¢ | $48 | −$92 | +$33 | |
| Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by December 31? | Yes | 583 | 10¢ | 8¢ | $47 | −$12 | $0 | |
| Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027? | No | 164 | 40¢ | 28¢ | $46 | −$20 | $0 | |
| OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31? | OpenAI | 604 | 30¢ | 7.5¢ | $45 | −$136 | $0 | |
| Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? | No | 49 | 31¢ | 77¢ | $38 | +$23 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 368 | 9.4¢ | 10.2¢ | $38 | +$2.85 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026? | Yes | 329 | 18.1¢ | 7.8¢ | $26 | −$34 | +$194 | |
| U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? | Yes | 524 | 6.1¢ | 4.5¢ | $24 | −$8.56 | $0 | |
| Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year? | Yes | 414 | 24.4¢ | 5.5¢ | $23 | −$78 | $0 | |
| AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026? | Yes | 406 | 70¢ | 5.6¢ | $23 | −$261 | $0 | |
| Kimi K4 released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,822 | 7.4¢ | 1.2¢ | $22 | −$113 | +$1.03 | |
| Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027? | No | 40 | 43¢ | 53¢ | $21 | +$4.00 | $0 | |
| Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before 2027? | Yes | 418 | 15.2¢ | 4.7¢ | $19 | −$44 | $0 | |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? | Yes | 24 | 72.3¢ | 78.8¢ | $19 | +$1.59 | $0 | |
| Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | Yes | 4,050 | 8.5¢ | 0.5¢ | $18 | −$324 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026? | Yes | 403 | 4.2¢ | 4¢ | $16 | −$0.62 | −$55 | |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 761 | 1.2¢ | 2.1¢ | $16 | +$6.85 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on October 8, 2026? | Yes | 710 | 1.5¢ | 2.2¢ | $16 | +$5.08 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 1,365 | 10.2¢ | 1.1¢ | $14 | −$125 | $0 | |
| Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 199 | 18.8¢ | 7¢ | $14 | −$23 | $0 | |
| Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 462 | 22.3¢ | 2.6¢ | $12 | −$91 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 193 | 1¢ | 6¢ | $12 | +$9.70 | $0 | |
| Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 100 | 22¢ | 11.5¢ | $11 | −$10 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026? | Yes | 20 | 59¢ | 54¢ | $11 | −$1.00 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OAI? | Yes | 24 | 15¢ | 44.5¢ | $11 | +$7.02 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 78 | 6.3¢ | 13.2¢ | $10 | +$5.38 | +$16 | |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | Yes | 135 | 22.5¢ | 5.5¢ | $7.43 | −$23 | −$104 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 9, 2026? | Yes | 212 | 11.4¢ | 3.4¢ | $7.22 | −$17 | +$6.31 | |
