sharpside
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Traders/Rank #3,932

estoicc

0x738…5996@estoicc
WR 60+PoliticsSportOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$8,378vol $234k
PnL 30d−$505gains $3,258 · losses $306
PnL 7d+$127win rate 7d 83.3%
Win rate61.0%adj 60.5% · 30d 86.1%
Open value$3,400cash n/a
Positions107 / 812open / all-time
Max drawdown−16.2%of equity peak
Account age7molast trade 6d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$8,895below peak −$1,492Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

68/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale56
Adjusted win rateraw 61.0% · shrunk toward 50%51
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable97
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d79
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity84

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Fnatic make a roster change by December?Yes19446.2¢96.2¢$187+$97$0
Will Mikaela Waltersson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Halland?Yes29050¢64¢$186+$41$0
Will Víctor Robert De La Cruz Rosas win the next Trujillo mayoral elections?No18163¢99.6¢$180+$66$0
Will Sara Nylund be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västernorrland?No23523¢72.5¢$170+$116$0
Will invy leave Paper Rex in 2026?No15066.6¢89.5¢$134+$34$0
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by September 30?No13572.7¢99¢$133+$35$0
Will Cloud9 make a roster change by December?Yes20353.3¢61.5¢$125+$17$0
Will Urban Granström be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Sörmland?No12527.2¢92.5¢$115+$81$0
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $175B by December 31?No11888¢92.5¢$109+$5.32$0
Will Asuna leave 100 Thieves in 2026?No12065¢88.5¢$106+$28$0
Will the Republican Party win the ME-02 House seat?No27239¢37.5¢$102−$4.08$0
Will Dplus KIA make a roster change by December?Yes23440¢43¢$101+$7.02$0
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?No37435¢25.5¢$95−$36$0
Will Albert Aníbal Arenas Yabar win the next Cusco mayoral elections?Yes10023¢89.9¢$90+$67$0
Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?Yes11163¢80.5¢$89+$19$0
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?Yes76410.7¢11¢$84+$2.03$0
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?No10041¢82.5¢$83+$42$0
Will Brian Kemp announce a presidential run before 2028?No10770¢73¢$78+$3.21$0
Will Suzhou LNG Esports make a roster change by December?No25022¢29.5¢$74+$19$0
Will My Alnebratt be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västra Götaland?Yes7968¢90.9¢$72+$18$0
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes8879.5¢81.5¢$72+$1.79$0
Will G2 Esports make a roster change by December?Yes26727.3¢25¢$67−$6.19$0
Will Craig Hodge win the 2026 Coquitlam mayoral election?Yes7053¢93.2¢$65+$28$0
Will Cryocells leave 100 Thieves in 2026?No8561¢72.5¢$62+$9.80$0
Will Glenn Youngkin announce a presidential run before 2028?No8563.8¢67.5¢$57+$3.17$0
Russia strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by August 28, 2026?Yes6262.3¢89.7¢$56+$17$0
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No15853.9¢34.4¢$54−$31$0
Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?Yes6057.3¢85.5¢$51+$17$0
Will Primmie leave FULL SENSE in 2026?No8041.5¢64¢$51+$18$0
Will Meteor leave T1 in 2026?Yes17528¢26.5¢$46−$2.63$0
Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?Yes19053.2¢22.5¢$43−$58$0
Will Magomed Ankalaev fight Paulo Costa next?Yes8437¢49¢$41+$10$0
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?Yes24531¢14.5¢$36−$40$0
Will Rachel De Basso be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Jönköping County?No14522¢23¢$33+$1.45$0
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $6B by December 31?No6333.3¢52¢$33+$12+$18
Will Bengt Bergqvist be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Jämtland Härjedalen?No13112.7¢23.8¢$31+$15$0
Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by September 30, 2026?Yes28432.9¢10.3¢$29−$64$0
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Yes44520¢6.5¢$29−$60$0
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?Yes5159¢55.5¢$28−$1.78$0
Will Ron Cannan win the 2026 Kelowna mayoral election?Yes3949¢67.5¢$26+$7.17$0
Will Marianne Alto win the 2026 Victoria mayoral election?No24613¢9.4¢$23−$8.86$0
Will 0 Independents be elected to Congress in 2026?No5054¢46¢$23−$3.99+$20
Will Republicans win white voters in the midterms?No13027.3¢15.5¢$20−$15+$1.39
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Yes24536¢7¢$17−$71$0
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?Yes19417¢7¢$14−$19$0
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?No9631.2¢13.4¢$13−$17$0
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Yes5058¢22.5¢$11−$18$0
Will Roger Cristóbal Gronerth Pinedo win the next Maynas mayoral elections?No13651.6¢7.6¢$10−$60$0
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?Yes16955¢5.2¢$8.79−$84$0
Will anyone insult Donald Trump during the 2026 Emmy Awards?Yes10039¢8.6¢$8.55−$30$0
Will Miguel Gerardo Cueva Celi win the next Piura mayoral elections?No7667.5¢9.4¢$7.09−$44$0
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.50 on December 31, 2026?Yes4039.8¢17.4¢$6.99−$9.01$0
Will Meit Fohlin be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Gotland?No13113¢3.7¢$4.77−$12$0
Will Manuel Enrique Vera Paredes win the next Arequipa mayoral elections?No18852.7¢2.2¢$4.13−$95$0
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?Yes11618.2¢3.3¢$3.75−$17$0
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?Yes12642¢1.2¢$1.45−$52$0
League City, Texas passes ballot measure approving the police use of Flock Cameras?No122¢24.5¢$0.31+$0.03$0
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?Yes19858¢0.1¢$0.10−$115$0
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026?Yes1,2508¢0¢$0−$100−$3.68
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by September 30?Yes98111.3¢0¢$0−$111−$3.94
Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 30?No81212.3¢0¢$0−$100−$3.51
Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?Yes8095.6¢0¢$0−$45$0
Will Houthis target Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026?No53011.5¢0¢$0−$61$0
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 15?Yes46131¢0¢$0−$143$0
Will Fabio Roscioli win the next Reggio di Calabria by-election?No40021.5¢0¢$0−$86−$2.70
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?No3989¢0¢$0−$36$0
US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30?Yes39019¢0¢$0−$74−$0.78
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Yes36716.9¢0¢$0−$62$0
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?Yes33523¢0¢$0−$77$0
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Yes31338¢0¢$0−$119$0
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by September 30?No31156.3¢0¢$0−$175−$3.06
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?No31031¢0¢$0−$96$0
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in September 2026?Yes28025¢0¢$0−$70$0
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?Yes27223.7¢0¢$0−$64$0
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?No26319¢0¢$0−$50−$1.62
Will Delegado Éder Mauro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?Yes23056.5¢0¢$0−$130−$2.26
Will United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections?Yes19729.9¢0¢$0−$59−$1.65
Will Trump praise Roger Penske in September?Yes19646¢0¢$0−$90−$2.43
Will Trump praise Warren Buffett in September?Yes19021¢0¢$0−$40−$1.58
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes18635¢0¢$0−$65−$2.11
Will Jascha Rohr win the next Oldenburg mayoral election?No18539.6¢0¢$0−$73−$1.77
Will Belit Onay win the next Hannover mayoral election?No18419¢0¢$0−$35−$1.13
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?No18222¢0¢$0−$40−$1.25
EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31?No17658.5¢0¢$0−$103$0
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?No17142¢0¢$0−$72−$1.67
Trump tries to fire Lisa Cook by September 30?Yes16318¢0¢$0−$29−$0.97
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on September 30, 2026?Yes16360.1¢0¢$0−$98−$24
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 14, 2026?No16111.1¢0¢$0−$18$0
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?Yes16037.6¢0¢$0−$60−$1.50
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by September 30?No15437.4¢0¢$0−$58$0
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 13, 2026?Yes15014.7¢0¢$0−$22$0
Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Yes14839.2¢0¢$0−$58$0
Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours?Yes14243¢0¢$0−$61−$1.39
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $800B and $900B at the end of September 2026?Yes1380¢0¢$0$0$0
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Linke Over/Under 11%?Over13345¢0¢$0−$60−$1.32
Will Drake release a new album by September 30?Yes12832¢0¢$0−$41−$1.12
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Yes12715¢0¢$0−$19$0
Will Mara Rocha win the second-most votes in the 2026 Acre Senate election?No12153.7¢0¢$0−$65−$1.20
Will Iran target Qatar by September 30, 2026?Yes12027¢0¢$0−$32$0
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?Yes11920.1¢0¢$0−$24$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL YesUS strike on Colombia by December 31?24.9¢352$8861%68
SELL NoWill Mike O'Reilly win the 2026 Kamloops mayoral election?34¢203$6961%68
SELL NoWill the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?38.2¢95$3661%68
SELL YesWill Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?34.8¢368$12861%68
BUY NoOpenAI resumes training by October 15, 2026?49¢163$8061%68
SELL YesSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?45¢340$15361%68
SELL YesWill GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?52.5¢230$12161%68
BUY YesSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?50¢340$17061%68
SELL YesWill Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?93¢155$14461%68
SELL NoWill US win 55% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?86.4¢41$3561%68
SELL NoWill European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš win the third most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?76.2¢185$14161%68
BUY NoWill 0 Independents be elected to Congress in 2026?54¢250$13561%68
BUY YesWill GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?48¢230$11061%68
BUY NoWill European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš win the third most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?70.8¢185$13161%68
BUY NoWill US win 55% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?80.5¢41$3361%68
SELL YesWill Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?34¢40$1461%68
SELL NoWill Florian Dinger win the next Göttingen mayoral election?99.8¢66$6661%68
SELL NoWill the Danube River return to normal levels between September 15 and September 30, 2026?98.6¢94$9361%68
SELL NoWill Trump meet with Mark Carney by September 30, 2026?92.3¢47$4361%68
BUY YesWill NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?53.2¢190$10161%68