PnL all-time−$709vol $21.3k
PnL 30d$0gains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d$0win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate58.3%adj 53.1% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$1,076cash n/a
Positions12 / 24open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age1.4ylast trade 8mo ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL−$709below peak −$1,146Oct 12
SharpScore inputs
11/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 58.3% · shrunk toward 50%33
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable46
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? · Yesopen+$543Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? · Yesopen+$214Will Google have the top AI model on June 30? · Yesclosed+$174US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? · Noclosed+$139Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? · Yesclosed+$33
Worst markets
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? · Yesopen−$648Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? · Yesopen−$289Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday? · Yesopen−$260Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yesopen−$250Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? · Yesopen−$219
Open positions · 12
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 731 | 25.7¢ | 100¢ | $731 | +$543 | $0 | |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Yes | 329 | 35¢ | 100¢ | $329 | +$214 | $0 | |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei | No | 17 | 27¢ | 100¢ | $17 | +$12 | $0 | |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | Yes | 5,025 | 15.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$766 | +$118 | |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday? | Yes | 2,498 | 10.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$260 | $0 | |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Yes | 1,468 | 19.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$289 | $0 | |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? | Yes | 1,458 | 15¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$219 | $0 | |
| Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 686 | 36.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$250 | $0 | |
| US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? | Yes | 300 | 3.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$11 | $0 | |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? | Yes | 203 | 34¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$69 | $0 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | Yes | 100 | 24¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$24 | $0 | |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? | Yes | 30 | 9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.70 | $0 |
Recent trades
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