PnL all-time−$5.83vol $41.6k
PnL 30d−$10gains $2,334 · losses $2,359
PnL 7d+$1.92win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate53.3%adj 51.4% · 30d 33.3%
Open value$1,132cash n/a
Positions4 / 19open / all-time
Max drawdown−1.7%of equity peak
Account age2.3ylast trade 15h ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$2.32below peak −$15Oct 10
SharpScore inputs
30/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 53.3% · shrunk toward 50%28
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable43
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity98
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Noclosed+$2,334Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? · Yesclosed+$16Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? · Yesclosed+$6.67Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in scoring? · Yesclosed+$3.71Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? · Yesclosed+$3.00
Worst markets
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yesclosed−$2,351Will FDP win the most seats in the next German election? · Yesclosed−$8.75Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? · Noclosed−$8.20Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Noclosed−$7.47Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December? · Yesclosed−$5.00
Open positions · 4
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? | No | 519 | 96.3¢ | 96.3¢ | $500 | −$0.26 | $0 | |
| Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals? | No | 465 | 96.8¢ | 96.6¢ | $449 | −$0.93 | $0 | |
| Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 181 | 96.8¢ | 96.8¢ | $175 | −$0.09 | $0 | |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 45 | 22.1¢ | 19.1¢ | $8.62 | −$1.38 | $0 |
Recent trades
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