| Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? | No | 1,175 | 12.9¢ | 93.5¢ | $1,099 | +$947 | $0 | |
| Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? | No | 1,049 | 17.6¢ | 86.5¢ | $908 | +$723 | +$2.28 | |
| Will Oura not IPO before January 2027? | Yes | 961 | 3.9¢ | 88.8¢ | $854 | +$817 | +$148 | |
| Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026? | No | 832 | 28.9¢ | 93.5¢ | $778 | +$538 | +$79 | |
| Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026? | No | 823 | 23.9¢ | 93.5¢ | $769 | +$573 | +$41 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | No | 800 | 23¢ | 93.5¢ | $748 | +$564 | $0 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 800 | 16¢ | 92.5¢ | $740 | +$612 | $0 | |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? | No | 774 | 28¢ | 90.5¢ | $700 | +$483 | +$5.83 | |
| Supreme Court vacancy in 2026? | No | 583 | 24¢ | 86.5¢ | $504 | +$364 | $0 | |
| Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Yes | 706 | 34¢ | 66.5¢ | $469 | +$229 | $0 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 555 | 74¢ | 82.5¢ | $458 | +$47 | −$378 | |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | No | 730 | 15¢ | 61.5¢ | $449 | +$339 | +$25 | |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | No | 721 | 16¢ | 60.5¢ | $436 | +$321 | +$2.75 | |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 840 | 3¢ | 51.7¢ | $435 | +$410 | +$64 | |
| Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election? | No | 731 | 29.5¢ | 54.5¢ | $398 | +$182 | $0 | |
| Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 708 | 13.1¢ | 54¢ | $382 | +$289 | $0 | |
| Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026? | Yes | 800 | 2¢ | 45.5¢ | $364 | +$348 | $0 | |
| Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? | No | 387 | 5.1¢ | 93¢ | $360 | +$341 | +$67 | |
| Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? | No | 330 | 31.1¢ | 96.6¢ | $319 | +$216 | +$273 | |
| Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Yes | 800 | 19¢ | 38.5¢ | $308 | +$156 | $0 | |
| Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | No | 310 | 39.2¢ | 98.3¢ | $305 | +$183 | +$35 | |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31? | No | 436 | 31.4¢ | 69¢ | $301 | +$164 | −$19 | |
| Will Russia capture Dobropillia by October 31, 2026? | No | 311 | 5¢ | 96.2¢ | $299 | +$284 | +$92 | |
| VALORANT Champions 2026: Tier 2 Team to Qualify? | No | 293 | 20.1¢ | 99¢ | $290 | +$231 | +$2.09 | |
| Will Manuel Bompard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | No | 300 | 96.5¢ | 94.8¢ | $284 | −$5.20 | $0 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 923 | 13.2¢ | 30.5¢ | $282 | +$160 | +$345 | |
| MagicBlock FDV above $10M one day after launch? | No | 397 | 9.2¢ | 69.8¢ | $277 | +$240 | +$60 | |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026? | No | 279 | 40.6¢ | 98.8¢ | $275 | +$162 | −$0.43 | |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026? | No | 284 | 52.5¢ | 95.9¢ | $273 | +$124 | +$22 | |
| Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31? | No | 299 | 65.9¢ | 88.6¢ | $265 | +$68 | −$26 | |
| Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | 264 | 96.8¢ | 99.8¢ | $263 | +$7.91 | −$239 | |
| UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? | No | 293 | 72¢ | 89.5¢ | $262 | +$51 | −$1.94 | |
| Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $45B by December 31? | No | 266 | 59.8¢ | 97.6¢ | $259 | +$100 | +$26 | |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | No | 278 | 91¢ | 92.5¢ | $257 | +$4.17 | −$116 | |
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? | No | 300 | 71.8¢ | 85.5¢ | $257 | +$41 | $0 | |
| Anthony Fauci charged by December 31? | No | 291 | 27.8¢ | 87.5¢ | $255 | +$174 | −$6.85 | |
| Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | Yes | 258 | 1¢ | 98.2¢ | $253 | +$250 | +$36 | |
| Will the US federal government take a stake in IonQ, Inc.? | No | 280 | 36.3¢ | 90¢ | $252 | +$150 | +$2.73 | |
| Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? | No | 281 | 73.7¢ | 89.5¢ | $251 | +$44 | −$56 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the IL-01 House seat? | Yes | 258 | 93.2¢ | 96.5¢ | $249 | +$8.44 | $0 | |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Yes | 902 | 14¢ | 27.5¢ | $248 | +$122 | +$34 | |
| Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2027? | No | 395 | 23¢ | 62.5¢ | $247 | +$156 | $0 | |
| Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026? | No | 265 | 34.2¢ | 92.5¢ | $246 | +$155 | +$21 | |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | No | 328 | 28¢ | 74.5¢ | $244 | +$153 | −$119 | |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | No | 280 | 59.9¢ | 87¢ | $244 | +$76 | +$16 | |
| Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? | No | 261 | 86.6¢ | 92.6¢ | $242 | +$16 | −$139 | |
| Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? | Yes | 244 | 13.1¢ | 98.8¢ | $241 | +$209 | +$87 | |
| Natural Disaster in 2026? | No | 262 | 17.1¢ | 92¢ | $241 | +$196 | +$45 | |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? | No | 277 | 69.6¢ | 87¢ | $241 | +$48 | +$84 | |
| Will Oliver Marmol win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year? | No | 240 | 5.4¢ | 100¢ | $240 | +$227 | +$27 | |
| Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? | Yes | 290 | 65.4¢ | 82.5¢ | $240 | +$50 | −$19 | |
| Will Trump pardon Donald Brodie before 2027? | Yes | 644 | 15.6¢ | 37¢ | $238 | +$138 | +$55 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? | Yes | 292 | 81.4¢ | 80.5¢ | $235 | −$2.54 | +$33 | |
| Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | No | 235 | 4.7¢ | 99.6¢ | $234 | +$223 | +$46 | |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 262 | 55¢ | 89¢ | $233 | +$89 | −$38 | |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | No | 254 | 85.8¢ | 91.5¢ | $232 | +$14 | −$153 | |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | No | 259 | 15.8¢ | 89¢ | $230 | +$189 | +$364 | |
| Will the Florida Panthers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? | No | 250 | 4¢ | 91.5¢ | $229 | +$219 | $0 | |
| Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | No | 265 | 79.3¢ | 86¢ | $228 | +$18 | −$200 | |
| Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026? | No | 257 | 90.3¢ | 88¢ | $226 | −$6.00 | −$134 | |
| Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? | Yes | 224 | 0.9¢ | 98.8¢ | $222 | +$220 | +$24 | |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026? | No | 221 | 73.6¢ | 98.5¢ | $218 | +$55 | −$16 | |
| Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026? | No | 241 | 69.2¢ | 90.5¢ | $218 | +$51 | $0 | |
| Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? | No | 241 | 82.4¢ | 90¢ | $217 | +$18 | −$44 | |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027? | No | 256 | 93.3¢ | 84¢ | $215 | −$24 | −$37 | |
| Bank of England rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 216 | 12¢ | 98.9¢ | $214 | +$188 | +$27 | |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? | No | 218 | 27¢ | 96.5¢ | $211 | +$152 | $0 | |
| Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? | Yes | 356 | 14.1¢ | 58.4¢ | $208 | +$158 | +$17 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1,052 | 15.1¢ | 19.5¢ | $205 | +$46 | +$54 | |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | Yes | 254 | 8.2¢ | 80.5¢ | $205 | +$184 | +$66 | |
| Will Surf launch a token by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 433 | 7¢ | 46.5¢ | $201 | +$171 | $0 | |
| Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026? | Yes | 229 | 76.6¢ | 87.5¢ | $200 | +$25 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? | No | 243 | 82.7¢ | 82¢ | $199 | −$1.74 | −$6.55 | |
| Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil? | No | 256 | 40.3¢ | 78¢ | $199 | +$96 | +$80 | |
| Trump goes to space in 2026? | No | 200 | 98.4¢ | 98¢ | $196 | −$0.90 | $0 | |
| Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026? | Yes | 225 | 71.3¢ | 86.5¢ | $194 | +$34 | −$23 | |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? | No | 213 | 90¢ | 90.3¢ | $193 | +$0.46 | −$158 | |
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? | No | 295 | 54.2¢ | 65¢ | $192 | +$32 | −$174 | |
| Pakistan military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026? | No | 260 | 24¢ | 73.5¢ | $191 | +$129 | +$5.19 | |
| New pandemic in 2026? | No | 200 | 89¢ | 95.5¢ | $191 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? | No | 254 | 71¢ | 75¢ | $190 | +$10 | −$17 | |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027? | No | 220 | 40¢ | 86¢ | $189 | +$101 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat? | Yes | 248 | 11¢ | 76¢ | $188 | +$161 | +$17 | |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | No | 200 | 85¢ | 93.5¢ | $187 | +$17 | −$268 | |
| Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026? | No | 244 | 28¢ | 76.5¢ | $187 | +$119 | +$23 | |
| Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium? | No | 195 | 88¢ | 95.5¢ | $186 | +$15 | −$228 | |
| Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027? | Yes | 210 | 87.8¢ | 88.2¢ | $185 | +$0.86 | −$66 | |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | No | 251 | 71.7¢ | 73.5¢ | $184 | +$4.46 | −$28 | |
| Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $125B by December 31? | No | 188 | 89.9¢ | 97.6¢ | $184 | +$14 | −$94 | |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | No | 194 | 86¢ | 94.5¢ | $183 | +$16 | −$216 | |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027? | No | 194 | 93.2¢ | 93.3¢ | $181 | +$0.05 | −$109 | |
| Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by December 31? | No | 180 | 84.1¢ | 98.8¢ | $178 | +$26 | −$7.00 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 185 | 91.9¢ | 96.2¢ | $177 | +$7.90 | −$518 | |
| Dreamcash FDV above $50M one day after launch? | Yes | 803 | 22¢ | 22¢ | $177 | −$0.10 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | No | 207 | 79¢ | 85¢ | $176 | +$12 | −$80 | |
| Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting? | Yes | 197 | 65.5¢ | 89.5¢ | $176 | +$47 | +$12 | |
| Will Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals? | Yes | 333 | 6¢ | 52.7¢ | $176 | +$156 | +$112 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | No | 209 | 66.3¢ | 83.5¢ | $174 | +$36 | −$92 | |
| Kash Patel out by December 31? | No | 217 | 73.9¢ | 79.5¢ | $172 | +$12 | −$69 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | No | 263 | 72.9¢ | 65.5¢ | $172 | −$20 | −$37 | |
