sharpside
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Traders/Rank #959

cynical.reason

0x752…cde1
PnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+WR 70+WR 60+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$214kvol $7.33M
PnL 30d$0gains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d$0win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate71.1%adj 67.5% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$0cash n/a
Positions15 / 115open / all-time
Max drawdown−14.1%of equity peak
Account age8molast trade 4mo ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$214kbelow peak $0Oct 8

SharpScore inputs

59/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale76
Adjusted win rateraw 71.1% · shrunk toward 50%69
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable69
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity86

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 15

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Yes146k11.7¢0¢$0−$17.2k−$234
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?No40.0k1.9¢0¢$0−$760−$611
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?Yes37.4k2.7¢0¢$0−$996+$6,216
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?Yes35.1k1.3¢0¢$0−$469−$740
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes10.8k7¢0¢$0−$756$0
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No9,40111¢0¢$0−$1,032$0
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?Yes7,72513.4¢0¢$0−$1,039$0
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?No7,37426.6¢0¢$0−$1,958−$458
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No5,6142.9¢0¢$0−$160$0
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?No4,2382.5¢0¢$0−$107+$6,470
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?No1,77741.7¢0¢$0−$741+$6.06
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?Yes62715¢0¢$0−$94$0
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?Yes5852¢0¢$0−$12$0
US x Iran meeting by March 15, 2026?Yes4974.8¢0¢$0−$24+$2.93
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?Yes42034.5¢0¢$0−$145$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL YesWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?12¢0$0.0171%59
SELL NoWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?98.3¢2$2.0171%59
SELL NoIran coup attempt by June 30?86¢114$9871%59
SELL YesStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?15¢2,290$34371%59
SELL YesStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?39¢18.8k$7,34371%59
SELL YesStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?18¢25.5k$4,59171%59
SELL YesStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?59¢45.6k$26.9k71%59Whale
SELL YesWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?39¢87$3471%59
SELL NoWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?39¢54$2171%59
SELL YesStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?41¢30.9k$12.7k71%59Whale
BUY NoWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?35.8¢24.8k$8,87871%59
BUY NoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?52.5¢6,947$3,64871%59
BUY YesStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?58¢50.0k$29.0k71%59Whale
BUY YesStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?37¢56.6k$21.0k71%59Whale
BUY YesStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?18¢29.2k$5,25671%59
BUY YesWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?33¢87$2971%59
SELL YesUS forces enter Iran by March 31?23¢84$1971%59
SELL NoTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?23¢378$8771%59
SELL NoTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?83¢1,383$1,14871%59
SELL NoIran leadership change by December 31?44¢783$34571%59