sharpside
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Traders/Unranked

0x769…05bf

0x769…05bf
PoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$2,560vol $284k
PnL 30d−$1.56gains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d−$0.78win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate29.7%adj 31.2% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$276cash n/a
Positions30 / 288open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age8molast trade 5mo ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$2,574below peak −$2,676Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

18/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 29.7% · shrunk toward 50%0
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable82
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31? · Noclosed+$264Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? · Yesopen+$164Will Iran strike Bahrain again in March? · Yesclosed+$163Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? · Noclosed+$160Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? · Yesclosed+$152

Worst markets

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? · Noopen−$495Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? · Yesopen−$400Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? · Yesopen−$370Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? · Yesopen−$300US forces enter Iran by March 31? · Yesclosed−$298

Open positions · 30

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?Yes25035¢100¢$250+$162+$1.68
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?Yes972.5¢100¢$8.62+$2.37+$34
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 30, 2026?Yes580¢100¢$5.00+$1.00$0
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 10, 2026?No498¢100¢$4.13+$0.08+$0.01
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Yes322.2¢100¢$2.93+$2.28−$4.07
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?No263.5¢100¢$2.00+$0.73+$106
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?No170¢100¢$1.00+$0.30+$18
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?Yes3044.4¢3.1¢$0.93−$12+$2.52
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes413¢14.8¢$0.55+$0.07−$4.09
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?Yes540¢7.8¢$0.36−$1.51+$4.17
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?Yes2,00018.5¢0¢$0−$370$0
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?Yes1,20025¢0¢$0−$300$0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?No1,00012¢0¢$0−$120$0
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June?Yes60066.7¢0¢$0−$400$0
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?Yes50022¢0¢$0−$110$0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?Yes37456¢0¢$0−$209$0
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?Yes29417¢0¢$0−$50$0
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?Yes606.7¢0¢$0−$4.05+$0.83
Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading?Yes5015¢0¢$0−$7.50−$8.20
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?Yes5013¢0¢$0−$6.50+$1.50
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?Yes505.8¢0¢$0−$2.89$0
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?Yes172.6¢0¢$0−$0.44−$30
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?No1317.4¢0¢$0−$2.17−$75
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?No562.5¢0¢$0−$3.12−$492
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?Yes413.5¢0¢$0−$0.54−$7.76
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 4-7, 2026?Yes411.2¢0¢$0−$0.45−$0.78
Jimmy Lai released by June 30?Yes47.3¢0¢$0−$0.26−$31
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Yes230¢0¢$0−$0.60−$72
Will Howard Lutnick be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Yes214.4¢0¢$0−$0.27+$2.90
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?Yes18.3¢0¢$0−$0.08−$20

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL NoIsrael x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?90.1¢398$35930%18
BUY NoIsrael x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?63.5¢400$25430%18
SELL NoIran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?13¢995$12930%18
BUY YesMojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?1.7¢16$0.2730%18
SELL NoIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?20.1¢136$2730%18
SELL YesMojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?1.6¢199$3.1830%18
SELL YesWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?56.4¢19$1130%18
SELL NoWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,800 (HIGH) in December?70.1¢7$4.7730%18
SELL YesUS military draft authorized in 2026?12¢132$1630%18
BUY NoWill Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 10, 2026?98¢826$80930%18
SELL YesWill Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?99.5¢727$72330%18
BUY YesWill Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?91¢32$2930%18
BUY YesWill Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?71¢6$3.9830%18
SELL YesWill Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?72.6¢587$42630%18
SELL NoNetanyahu out by end of 2026?65¢250$16330%18
SELL NoUS x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?71¢100$7130%18
BUY NoUS x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?69.4¢634$44030%18
BUY YesKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?30¢400$12030%18
BUY YesWill Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?73.6¢400$29430%18
SELL NoUS x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?78¢276$21530%18