sharpside
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Traders/Rank #2,605

gambler925

0x76d…6987
PoliticsOtherCulture
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$9,530vol $1.69M
PnL 30d+$5,880gains $69.8k · losses $63.3k
PnL 7d+$3,514win rate 7d 45.8%
Win rate55.0%adj 54.8% · 30d 55.3%
Open value$21.3kcash n/a
Positions48 / 531open / all-time
Max drawdown−7.5%of equity peak
Account age5molast trade 10m ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$14.4kbelow peak $0Oct 8

SharpScore inputs

68/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale57
Adjusted win rateraw 55.0% · shrunk toward 50%37
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable91
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity93

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Noclosed+$6,213Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? · Yesclosed+$5,836US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? · Yesclosed+$4,729Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? · Yesclosed+$4,079Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? · Yesclosed+$3,938

Worst markets

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? · Noclosed−$6,053Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Noclosed−$5,268Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? · Yesclosed−$4,558Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? · Yesclosed−$4,181Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? · Yesclosed−$3,922

Open positions · 48

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?Yes5,73252.3¢93.5¢$5,360+$2,363+$1,482
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?Yes5,49979.8¢76.9¢$4,226−$160+$0.68
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes2,58877¢78¢$2,019+$26−$3,074
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Yes5,97017.7¢22.5¢$1,343+$286+$3,427
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 20, 2026?No92686¢91.5¢$847+$50+$26
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 21, 2026?No84588.6¢91.5¢$773+$24+$0.56
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 28, 2026?No84086.7¢90¢$756+$28+$31
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?Yes1,09529.9¢56.5¢$619+$291+$871
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Yes1,30070.6¢43.5¢$565−$352−$822
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?No5,16042.9¢10.5¢$542−$1,670−$645
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Yes2,05623.1¢23.5¢$483+$7.57$0
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 29, 2026?No50186.2¢95.2¢$477+$45$0
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?Yes40183¢89.5¢$359+$26+$39
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes36094¢79.5¢$286−$52+$34
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 23, 2026?No28287.1¢95.6¢$270+$24+$6.06
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?No26895.3¢96.2¢$257+$2.23−$19
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes29787.6¢81.5¢$242−$18−$1,543
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on October 23, 2026?No22991.3¢97.3¢$223+$14+$16
Will Steve Hilton win Fresno County in the California governor race in 2026?Yes32665.6¢67.5¢$220+$6.16−$1.35
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 31, 2026?No19190.1¢97.8¢$187+$15+$2.14
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Yes5,18211.8¢2.8¢$145−$464+$99
Will Mikaela Waltersson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Halland?Yes18967.3¢69¢$131+$3.25$0
Will there be no Meta Watermelon model release by October 31, 2026?No15476¢75¢$115−$1.54$0
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?Yes21048¢50.5¢$106+$5.19$0
Will Jeremy Matlow win the Tallahassee mayoral election?Yes21048.9¢48.5¢$102−$0.80$0
Will Xavier Becerra win Fresno County in the California governor race in 2026?Yes32620.5¢30¢$98+$31+$5.05
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 8, 2026?No7495.7¢90¢$66−$4.18$0
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?Yes70878.8¢9¢$64−$494−$753
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes3605¢16.3¢$59+$41−$31
Anthropic IPO before 2027?No29710.3¢17.5¢$52+$21+$1,590
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?No70016.6¢6.5¢$46−$71−$644
Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by October 31, 2026?Yes5969.6¢72.5¢$42+$1.71$0
Will Per Svensson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Halland?Yes18930.5¢22¢$42−$16$0
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?No5478.4¢76.5¢$41−$1.04−$767
Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?No15422¢21.5¢$33−$0.77$0
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?Yes1,2151¢2¢$24+$12−$349
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?No7132.5¢31.5¢$22−$0.68+$156
Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026?Yes5928¢27.5¢$16−$0.29$0
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?No1881.9¢84.2¢$15+$0.41−$342
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Yes1884.6¢84.8¢$15+$0.04−$343
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 14, 2026?No1490.4¢97.5¢$14+$1.01$0
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?No5420¢23.5¢$13+$1.88+$782
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?No2683.6¢4.6¢$12+$2.51−$51
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?No2338.8¢30.8¢$7.14−$1.84+$100
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?No2826¢24.5¢$6.95−$0.43$0
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?No1036¢58.5¢$5.85+$2.25$0
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Yes2481.5¢1.2¢$2.86−$0.87−$458
Will Patrik Stenvard be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Gävleborg?Yes114.5¢2.1¢$0.02−$0.15$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoMeta's Watermelon released by October 15, 2026?31.7¢355$11355%68
BUY YesWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?83¢401$33355%68
BUY NoWill the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 8, 2026?95.7¢74$7155%68
BUY NoWill there be no Meta Watermelon model release by October 31, 2026?76¢154$11755%68
BUY NoMeta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?22¢154$3455%68
SELL YesNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?84.6¢46$3955%68
BUY YesWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?81¢51$4155%68
BUY YesWill 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?22¢2,500$55055%68
BUY YesWill 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?22¢79$1755%68
BUY YesWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?80¢394$31555%68
BUY YesWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?80¢30$2455%68
BUY YesWill there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?14.3¢182$2655%68
BUY YesWill there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?13.2¢312$4155%68
BUY YesWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?79¢50$4055%68
BUY YesWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?79¢99$7855%68
BUY YesWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?79¢100$7955%68
BUY YesWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?77¢73$5655%68
BUY NoWill there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?85.8¢343$29455%68
BUY NoWill there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?78.7¢352$27755%68
BUY NoWill there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?78.9¢268$21155%68