sharpside
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Traders/Rank #1,953

TronOG

0x77c…00c8
SharpWhalePnL 50k+PnL 10k+WR 80+WR 70+WR 60+1y+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$51.7kvol $2.84M
PnL 30d+$8,348gains $7,830 · losses $1,813
PnL 7d+$1,879win rate 7d 90.0%
Win rate83.0%adj 81.4% · 30d 94.0%
Open value$126kcash n/a
Positions63 / 443open / all-time
Max drawdown−2.7%of equity peak
Account age1.1ylast trade 11h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$57.0kbelow peak $0Oct 10

SharpScore inputs

87/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale67
Adjusted win rateraw 83.0% · shrunk toward 50%100
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable88
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity97

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 63

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Iran Nuke before 2027?No28.7k93.1¢96.3¢$27.6k+$906$0
Trump out as President before 2027?No26.0k86.4¢95.9¢$24.9k+$2,459+$397
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?No15.2k91¢94¢$14.3k+$464+$304
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?No12.5k87.6¢94.5¢$11.8k+$868+$103
Will USD be less than 2.0M Iranian rials on December 31?No10.0k86.6¢90.5¢$9,057+$393+$35
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?Yes8,16599.1¢100¢$8,161+$67+$17
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?No5,56588¢90.5¢$5,036+$140−$12
US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?No4,00091¢96.7¢$3,866+$226$0
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?No3,34481.5¢92.5¢$3,093+$367+$30
Will Esmail Qaani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No2,85594.2¢97.1¢$2,771+$81+$19
Will Elon Musk attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No2,36598.6¢97.5¢$2,306−$25+$0.02
Will Mojtaba Khamenei attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No1,94497.9¢97.9¢$1,904+$0.72+$16
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?No2,00076¢82.5¢$1,650+$130$0
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?No1,73087¢92¢$1,591+$86+$38
Will Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No1,60194.8¢95.6¢$1,529+$12+$1.12
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31?No1,33080.9¢73¢$971−$105$0
Will a European country take military action on Iran by October 31?No94495.5¢98.1¢$926+$24$0
US strike on Cuba by December 31?No80085¢88.5¢$708+$28$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No75581¢83.5¢$631+$19$0
Houthis seize an oil tanker by October 31, 2026?No60093¢91.5¢$549−$9.00$0
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?No46395¢96.8¢$448+$8.10$0
Turkish troops enter Yemen by October 31, 2026?No40091¢95.1¢$380+$16$0
Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?No30083¢88.5¢$265+$16$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?No20094.5¢95.9¢$192+$2.80$0
Will a European country take military action on Iran by December 31?No18891¢94.5¢$178+$6.58+$0.45
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes1,81810¢7.8¢$141−$42$0
Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by October 31, 2026?No10093.1¢92.1¢$92−$1.05$0
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in the United States by December 31, 2026?No9466.8¢97.2¢$91+$28+$142
Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes78760.4¢11.5¢$91−$385$0
Ukraine strikes another tanker in the Caspian Sea by September 30, 2026?No6078¢99.4¢$60+$13$0
Will Iran target Egypt by October 31, 2026?No6092.2¢98¢$59+$3.45$0
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?Yes20024¢22.5¢$45−$3.00$0
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?No1,00865¢4.5¢$45−$611+$9.75
Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?Yes5072¢70.5¢$35−$0.75$0
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes4,2000.5¢0.5¢$19−$2.10$0
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?Yes85316.3¢1.9¢$16−$123$0
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?No1885¢86.5¢$16+$0.27+$160
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes2,3941.9¢0.6¢$14−$32+$144
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026?Yes7130¢1.6¢$1.14−$20$0
Will Houthis target Syria by October 31, 2026?No174¢94.5¢$0.94+$0.20$0
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Yes2,22912.1¢0¢$0−$270+$12
Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?No1,91726.7¢0¢$0−$512−$92
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes1,38923.8¢0¢$0−$331$0
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?Yes1,0005.1¢0¢$0−$51$0
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?No90525.2¢0¢$0−$229$0
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No76064¢0¢$0−$486−$8.75
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes6004.2¢0¢$0−$25$0
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw?Yes30021.7¢0¢$0−$65−$2.55
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by May 31?Yes25692.9¢0¢$0−$237−$26
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Yes20052¢0¢$0−$104+$11
Will France win on 2026-07-14?Yes20037.5¢0¢$0−$75$0
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Team to AdvanceBosnia and Herzegovina20016¢0¢$0−$32−$0.36
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 22, 2026?No1796.1¢0¢$0−$11$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Yes17763.3¢0¢$0−$112+$32
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?Yes17663¢0¢$0−$111−$10
Will USD be between 2.2M and 2.5M Iranian rials on September 30?Yes13775¢0¢$0−$102−$1.28
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 DR Congo?Yes10924.9¢0¢$0−$27$0
Will USD reach 1.6M Iranian rials by March 31?Yes6750.4¢0¢$0−$34−$24
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Team to Take First CornerUnited States4158¢0¢$0−$24$0
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?Yes223.7¢0¢$0−$0.81+$0.43
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?Yes2266.7¢0¢$0−$15$0
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?No2058¢0¢$0−$12$0
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?Yes1330¢0¢$0−$3.91$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoTurkish troops enter Yemen by December 31, 2026?83.2¢517$43083%87Sharp
SELL YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?98.9¢2,754$2,72383%87Sharp
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?99.2¢5,939$5,89283%87Sharp
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?91¢3,342$3,04183%87Sharp
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?99.1¢3,833$3,79983%87Sharp
SELL NoIran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?80¢512$40983%87Sharp
SELL NoMilitary action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?72¢150$10883%87Sharp
BUY NoUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 7?99.9¢1,000$99983%87Sharp
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?99.2¢200$19883%87Sharp
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?99.1¢4,739$4,69683%87Sharp
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?98¢10.1k$9,90983%87Sharp
SELL NoWill Elon Musk attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?98.7¢15$1583%87Sharp
BUY NoWill Mojtaba Khamenei attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?97.9¢1,944$1,90383%87Sharp
BUY NoWill Elon Musk attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?98.6¢2,380$2,34683%87Sharp
BUY NoUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 7?98.6¢2,000$1,97283%87Sharp
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 5?99.4¢10$9.9483%87Sharp
SELL YesIsrael military action against Lebanon on October 4?96.2¢408$39283%87Sharp
BUY YesIsrael military action against Lebanon on October 4?95¢2,412$2,29183%87Sharp
BUY YesIsrael military action against Lebanon on October 4?94.7¢70$6683%87Sharp
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?89¢4,005$3,56483%87Sharp