sharpside
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Traders/Rank #6,996

74-75

0x780…b7d2
Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$1,880vol $140k
PnL 30d−$3,162gains $213 · losses $1,782
PnL 7d−$845win rate 7d 41.7%
Win rate39.6%adj 42.5% · 30d 39.6%
Open value$21.6kcash n/a
Positions113 / 167open / all-time
Max drawdown−95.3%of equity peak
Account age33dlast trade 1d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$3,890below peak −$3,683Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

23/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 39.6% · shrunk toward 50%6
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable74
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d94
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity5

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Aminu Abdussalam Gwarzo win the 2027 Kano State gubernatorial election?No2,00086¢88.5¢$1,770+$50$0
Will Ra'am be in the next Israeli government?No2,00083¢81.5¢$1,630−$30$0
Will Jimmy Gomez win the CA-34 House seat?No2,00076¢75¢$1,500−$20$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Yes2,42742¢42.5¢$1,032+$12+$34
Will José Maria Neves win the Cape Verde presidential election?Yes1,20080¢80¢$960$0$0
Will the Republican Party win the CA-20 House seat?Yes96095¢98.4¢$945+$33$0
Will the Republican Party win the AK-AL House seat?Yes1,00389.7¢86.5¢$867−$33$0
Will the Republican Party win the MD-01 House seat?Yes80091.1¢92.5¢$740+$12$0
Will Ken Calvert win the CA-40 House seat?Yes1,20059¢59.5¢$714+$6.00$0
Will Democrats win exactly 10 House seats in New Jersey in the 2026 midterm elections?Yes1,02369¢69.5¢$711+$5.12$0
Will Alia Hyacinth Iormem win the 2027 Benue State gubernatorial election?Yes1,10262¢60¢$661−$22$0
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?Yes1,20061¢54.5¢$654−$78$0
Will Democrats sweep the Maine Senate and Governor elections?Yes1,11569¢55¢$613−$156−$7.26
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?No79964¢68¢$543+$32$0
Will Lorenia Valles Sampedro win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?No1,20048¢39¢$468−$108$0
No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?Yes1,09633¢39.5¢$433+$71+$1.18
Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?Yes1,88827¢20.5¢$387−$123−$3.21
Will exactly 2 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?No53572¢70.5¢$377−$8.02+$0.11
Will the Republican Party win the SC-01 House seat?No1,20032¢30.5¢$366−$18$0
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by December 31?Yes1,07535¢31.5¢$339−$38$0
Will Heather Jefts win the 2026 Williamson County Judge election?Yes42071.5¢77.5¢$325+$25$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-11 House election by 30%-35%?Yes1,50026¢21¢$315−$75$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-03 House election by 30% or more?No32583.7¢90¢$293+$21$0
Will Democrats win exactly 3 House seats in Nevada in the 2026 midterm elections?Yes38269¢70¢$268+$3.82$0
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on December 31?No1,20043¢21.5¢$258−$258$0
Will Erwin Wiens win the 2026 Niagara-on-the-Lake mayoral election?No49047¢43.5¢$213−$17$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-03 House election by 30%-35%?No20980.6¢92.7¢$194+$25+$15
Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?No26375¢71.6¢$188−$9.06−$37
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-02 House seat?Yes1,20017¢15¢$180−$24$0
Canada admitted to the EU before 2029?Yes90022¢19.5¢$176−$23$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-02 House election by 18% or more?No18582¢94.3¢$174+$23$0
Will Werner Pretorius be the next mayor of Mangaung?No26160¢65.5¢$171+$14+$1.60
Will Verónica Díaz Robles win the 2027 Zacatecas Governor Election?Yes29878¢54¢$161−$71$0
Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?No34345¢43.5¢$149−$5.15$0
OpenAI criminally charged in the US in 2026?Yes1,20028¢12¢$144−$192$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SC-01 House election by 18% or more?No15582.2¢91.9¢$142+$15+$17
Will Robert Luna win the 2026 Los Angeles County Sheriff election?No3,00010¢4.5¢$135−$165$0
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-48 House seat?No2,0009¢6.5¢$130−$50$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NM-02 House election by 10%-15%?Yes52029¢22.5¢$117−$34$0
Will Christoffer Öqvist be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Sörmland?No36666¢30.5¢$112−$130$0
Will Angélica María Dueñas win the CA-29 House seat?Yes2,00010.3¢5.6¢$111−$95$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-03 House election by 5%-10%?No13878.5¢80.3¢$111+$2.40+$78
Will the Democratic Party win the MD-01 House seat?Yes2,0009¢5.5¢$110−$70$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-13 House election by 60%-65%?No14185¢76.5¢$108−$12−$21
Will Michal Uherčík win the 2026 Martin mayoral election?Yes25047¢42.5¢$106−$11$0
Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by March 31, 2027?Yes1,20012¢8.5¢$102−$42$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-03 House election by 25%-30%?Yes37126.8¢26.5¢$98−$1.05$0
Will Steven Snell win the 2026 Williamson County Judge election?Yes47017.8¢20¢$94+$10$0
Arizona passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?Yes11261¢59.5¢$67−$1.68$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MN-03 House election by 30%-35%?Yes21026¢31.5¢$66+$12$0
Will Nevada be the closest Governor's race in 2026?Yes65314.5¢10.1¢$66−$29$0
Will the UK Budget include an increase to capital gains tax?No11050¢58.5¢$65+$9.37+$1.20
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NH-02 House election by 10%-15%?Yes27226¢21.5¢$59−$12−$2.72
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OR-06 House election by 15%-20%?Yes38418¢13.5¢$52−$17$0
Will Trump raise tariffs on Canada by October 31?Yes24016¢18¢$43+$4.79$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-04 House election by 60% or more?Yes19712.3¢20.5¢$40+$16$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-02 House election by 15%-20%?Yes23922¢16.5¢$39−$13$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-07 House election by 30%-35%?Yes17421¢19.1¢$33−$3.31$0
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?Yes12837¢25¢$32−$15−$28
Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte? No8052¢39.5¢$32−$10$0
Will Tomáš Vohryzka be the next Mayor of Ústí nad Labem?No1,20011¢2.6¢$31−$101$0
Will Milan Majerský win the 2026 Prešov Region gubernatorial election?No27221¢10.5¢$29−$29$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-13 House election by 5%-10%?Yes11427¢24.5¢$28−$2.85$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MI-02 House election by 15%-20%?Yes11919¢23.5¢$28+$5.35$0
Alofoke forms party in DR by June 30, 2027?Yes3670¢74.5¢$27+$1.63+$5.77
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-14 House election by 0%-5%?Yes40019¢6.5¢$26−$50$0
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-20 House seat?Yes1,5051.2¢1.7¢$25+$6.12$0
Will the Democratic Party win the AK-AL House seat?Yes1,0325.8¢2.4¢$25−$35$0
Will the Democrats win Grand Traverse County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No5445¢41¢$22−$2.18$0
Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat?No7425¢28¢$21+$2.22$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WI-01 House election by 0%-3%?Yes12021¢16.5¢$20−$5.40$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 KS-03 House election by 15%-20%?Yes9019.9¢21.5¢$19+$1.43+$57
Will there be exactly 6 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?No3944¢42.5¢$17−$0.59$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-01 House election by 60% or more?Yes2902.2¢5.7¢$16+$9.90$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MT-01 House election by 3%-6%?Yes10515¢15.5¢$16+$0.52$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NM-03 House election by 0%-5%?Yes43310¢3.8¢$16−$27$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-22 House election by 15%-20%?Yes5725¢28.5¢$16+$1.99$0
Will Labor win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?Yes7220¢22.5¢$16+$1.80$0
Will the Democratic Party win the NE-01 House seat?Yes9115¢17.5¢$16+$2.27$0
Will Tito-Dante Marimpietri win the 2026 Oshawa mayoral election?No6851¢23¢$16−$19+$0.52
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-13 House election by 60% or more?Yes2157.9¢7.2¢$15−$1.71$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-08 House election by 10%-15%?Yes5425¢26.5¢$14+$0.82$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Jersey be less than 2,400,000?Yes40020¢3.6¢$14−$66$0
Will Chen Su-yueh win the next Changhua County Magistrate election?No17515¢8¢$14−$12−$67
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 RI-01 House election by 30%-35%?Yes9914¢14¢$14$0$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MI-07 House election by 9%-12%?No1491.8¢97.7¢$14+$0.83+$9.01
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OK-03 House election by 25%-30%?Yes5814.9¢23¢$13+$4.66$0
Will Gavin Newsom win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?Yes6616.9¢18.8¢$12+$1.23$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kentucky be less than 1,200,000?Yes40024¢2.8¢$11−$85$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MN-01 House election by 6%-9%?Yes708.3¢14.8¢$10+$4.55$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-03 House election by 15%-20%?Yes5013¢19.7¢$9.85+$3.35$0
Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by October 31?Yes4620¢17¢$7.79−$1.37$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-13 House election by 15%-20%?Yes5915¢13.1¢$7.70−$1.12$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IN-08 House election by 25%-30%?Yes2729¢22.5¢$5.99−$1.73−$0.14
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-06 House election by 70% or more?Yes2241.6¢2.1¢$4.70+$1.14$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-09 House election by 30%-35%?Yes2024¢22.5¢$4.50−$0.30$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VT-AL House election by 40%-45%?Yes1614¢26.5¢$4.11+$1.94+$2.90
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?Yes3419¢10.5¢$3.57−$2.89−$75
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?Yes4715¢5.9¢$2.80−$4.32+$0.04
Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?Yes563¢55.5¢$2.77−$0.38$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill the Republican Party win the MD-01 House seat?91.1¢800$72840%23
SELL NoWill Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?73.1¢808$59140%23
SELL YesWill the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-01 House election by 9%-12%?18.6¢322$6040%23
SELL YesWill the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OK-01 House election by 15%-20%?33¢94$3140%23
SELL NoWill the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-03 House election by 5%-10%?88.8¢36$3240%23
SELL NoWill the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MI-07 House election by 9%-12%?97.5¢168$16440%23
SELL YesKash Patel out by December 31?17¢1,200$20440%23
SELL YesWill the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-08 House election by 3%-6%?23.7¢68$1640%23
SELL NoWill the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-03 House election by 5%-10%?89¢39$3540%23
SELL NoWill the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-03 House election by 5%-10%?90¢17$1540%23
SELL NoWill the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-03 House election by 5%-10%?89.4¢300$26840%23
BUY YesWill the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-06 House election by 70% or more?1.5¢167$2.5640%23
BUY YesWill the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-06 House election by 70% or more?1.8¢57$1.0040%23
BUY YesWill the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 RI-01 House election by 30%-35%?14¢99$1440%23
BUY YesWill the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-01 House election by 60% or more?2.6¢212$5.4240%23
BUY YesWill the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-01 House election by 60% or more?1.4¢77$1.0440%23
BUY YesWill the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-13 House election by 60% or more?8.7¢40$3.4840%23
BUY YesWill the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-13 House election by 60% or more?8.6¢30$2.5840%23
BUY YesWill the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-13 House election by 60% or more?8.5¢100$8.5040%23
BUY YesWill the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-13 House election by 60% or more?5.6¢45$2.5340%23