PnL all-time+$69vol $412k
PnL 30d−$494gains $0 · losses $379
PnL 7d−$98win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate60.0%adj 53.3% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$2,967cash n/a
Positions10 / 20open / all-time
Max drawdown−85.5%of equity peak
Account age3molast trade 35m ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$7.16below peak −$742Oct 13
SharpScore inputs
24/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale26
Adjusted win rateraw 60.0% · shrunk toward 50%33
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable43
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity15
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? · Noclosed+$210US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? · Yesclosed+$205Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? · Noclosed+$150US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? · Noclosed+$62Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yesopen+$55
Worst markets
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? · Yesclosed−$252Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? · Yesclosed−$200Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31? · Noclosed−$127Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yesopen−$50Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yesopen−$50
Open positions · 10
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Yes | 3,000 | 61.7¢ | 61.5¢ | $1,845 | −$5.00 | $0 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | Yes | 2,800 | 17¢ | 16.5¢ | $462 | −$14 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1,664 | 20¢ | 19.5¢ | $324 | −$8.32 | $0 | |
| Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 122k | 0.1¢ | 0.2¢ | $183 | +$55 | $0 | |
| Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 100k | 0.1¢ | 0.1¢ | $50 | −$50 | $0 | |
| Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 100k | 0.1¢ | 0.1¢ | $50 | −$50 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 90 | 26¢ | 27¢ | $24 | +$0.90 | $0 | |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027? | Yes | 210 | 4.5¢ | 6.8¢ | $14 | +$4.78 | $0 | |
| Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 61 | 16¢ | 23.5¢ | $14 | +$4.54 | $0 | |
| Will Scott Bessent be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | Yes | 36 | 3¢ | 0.5¢ | $0.18 | −$0.90 | $0 |
Recent trades
auto-refresh 30s
| Time | Side | Market | Price | Shares | Value | Trader WR | Sharp | Flags | Transaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SELL Yes | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | 16.9¢ | 1,232 | $208 | 60% | 24 | |||
| SELL Yes | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | 6¢ | 4,200 | $252 | 60% | 24 | |||
| BUY Yes | Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.1¢ | 100k | $100 | 60% | 24 | |||
| BUY Yes | Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.1¢ | 100k | $100 | 60% | 24 | |||
| BUY Yes | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027? | 4.5¢ | 210 | $9.50 | 60% | 24 | |||
| SELL Yes | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? | 1.7¢ | 12.6k | $210 | 60% | 24 | |||
| SELL Yes | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | 1.3¢ | 15.2k | $192 | 60% | 24 | |||
| SELL Yes | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? | 2.2¢ | 1,353 | $29 | 60% | 24 | |||
| SELL Yes | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? | 4¢ | 1,000 | $40 | 60% | 24 | |||
| BUY Yes | Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.3¢ | 1,000 | $3.00 | 60% | 24 | |||
| BUY Yes | Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.8¢ | 358 | $2.86 | 60% | 24 |