sharpside
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SASHA-122

0x79f…d24a
WR 60+1y+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$334vol $15.7k
PnL 30d−$17gains $59 · losses $30
PnL 7d+$5.37win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate63.4%adj 61.7% · 30d 54.5%
Open value$434cash n/a
Positions61 / 203open / all-time
Max drawdown−25.3%of equity peak
Account age2.0ylast trade 8d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$286below peak −$185Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

47/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 63.4% · shrunk toward 50%54
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable77
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d71
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity75

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 61

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No14084.3¢82.5¢$115−$2.58$0
Will Kash Heed win the 2026 Richmond mayoral election?No15067.3¢72.5¢$109+$7.75$0
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?No4385.4¢89.5¢$38+$1.75−$0.36
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?No2644.9¢93¢$24+$12+$8.86
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?No2489.9¢97.4¢$23+$1.81$0
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?No1634.5¢83.5¢$13+$7.82+$2.28
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?No1492.6¢97.5¢$13+$0.67$0
US strike on Colombia by December 31?No1382¢77.5¢$9.88−$0.57$0
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?No1068.6¢91.5¢$9.04+$2.26$0
Iran leadership change by December 31?No974.3¢89.5¢$8.32+$1.41$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No952¢85.5¢$7.57+$2.96+$0.14
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?No675¢97.3¢$6.18+$1.42$0
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes2031.5¢30.5¢$6.10−$0.20$0
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No744.4¢87.5¢$5.83+$2.87$0
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?No745¢84¢$5.81+$2.70$0
Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?No693.3¢98.3¢$5.78+$0.29$0
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?No579¢94.5¢$5.07+$0.83$0
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?No653¢83.5¢$5.06+$1.85$0
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?No580¢92.5¢$4.57+$0.62$0
GTA 6 launch postponed again?No478¢96.1¢$3.49+$0.66$0
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?No461¢85¢$3.20+$0.90$0
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?No394¢93.1¢$2.39−$0.02$0
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?No380¢69.5¢$1.95−$0.29$0
Will BRICS add a new member in 2026?No268¢87.5¢$1.68+$0.37$0
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?No274¢65.5¢$1.23−$0.16$0
Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?No249¢53.7¢$1.18+$0.10$0
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?No190¢95.5¢$1.07+$0.06$0
Will Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan be arrested in 2026?No198¢82.2¢$1.07−$0.21$0
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No185¢75¢$1.03−$0.14$0
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?No9604.2¢0¢$0−$41$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Yes4544.6¢0¢$0−$21+$0.11
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?No22362.4¢0¢$0−$139$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?Yes1235.2¢0¢$0−$6.38$0
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?No10931.6¢0¢$0−$35$0
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?Yes1002.5¢0¢$0−$2.50$0
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?Yes10018¢0¢$0−$18$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Yes991.5¢0¢$0−$1.49$0
Will Trump praise Allah by June 30?No793¢0¢$0−$2.36−$0.09
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes7424.4¢0¢$0−$18−$0.54
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?No6927.8¢0¢$0−$19$0
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No3726.6¢0¢$0−$9.76−$0.28
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Yes3411.3¢0¢$0−$3.83$0
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?Yes3110¢0¢$0−$3.11$0
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?No2425.5¢0¢$0−$6.00$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Yes2156¢0¢$0−$12$0
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes2117.4¢0¢$0−$3.61$0
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No1941.7¢0¢$0−$7.73$0
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?No1857.8¢0¢$0−$10$0
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No1170.7¢0¢$0−$7.78$0
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?Yes1115¢0¢$0−$1.60$0
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?No1011¢0¢$0−$1.05$0
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?No921¢0¢$0−$1.95$0
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?Yes820.9¢0¢$0−$1.65−$0.07
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes834¢0¢$0−$2.55−$0.07
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No730¢0¢$0−$2.11$0
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?No659.6¢0¢$0−$3.75$0
Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Yes513¢0¢$0−$0.69−$0.12
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?No570¢0¢$0−$3.53$0
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?No523¢0¢$0−$1.12−$0.04
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?No295.9¢0¢$0−$1.50$0
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?No192.8¢0¢$0−$1.04$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL YesWill OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?3.7¢4$0.1663%47
SELL YesDiscord IPO before 2027?3.8¢3$0.1063%47
SELL YesWill Tom Cotton be the next Senate Majority Leader?2.7¢13$0.3563%47
SELL YesIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?3¢17$0.5263%47
SELL YesWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?6¢13$0.8063%47
SELL NoWill OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?44¢11$4.8863%47
SELL NoWill the Republican Party win the NV-02 House seat?21¢5$0.9863%47
SELL YesWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 316¢59$3.5163%47
SELL YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?51.2¢19$9.6263%47
SELL YesNetanyahu out by end of 2026?39.6¢167$6663%47
SELL NoWill Trump be impeached before his term ends?28.5¢35$1063%47
SELL YesWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?36¢20$7.2063%47
SELL YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?17¢21$3.6263%47
SELL YesWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 317¢5$0.3563%47
BUY NoWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?85¢12$9.9763%47
BUY NoWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?85¢12$9.9963%47
SELL NoIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?92¢1$1.1263%47
SELL NoIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?92¢1$1.1163%47
BUY NoWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?89¢6$5.1263%47
BUY NoWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?89¢7$6.2063%47