| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 3,153 | 43.2¢ | 81.5¢ | $2,570 | +$1,208 | $0 | |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | No | 772 | 45.1¢ | 100¢ | $772 | +$424 | $0 | |
| Will US crude oil reserves fall to 200M by May 1? | No | 239 | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | $239 | +$8.11 | $0 | |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | No | 200 | 64¢ | 100¢ | $200 | +$72 | $0 | |
| Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? | Yes | 200 | 12¢ | 100¢ | $200 | +$176 | $0 | |
| 5kt meteor strike in 2026? | Yes | 861 | 39.3¢ | 20.5¢ | $177 | −$162 | $0 | |
| Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? | No | 179 | 84.7¢ | 89.2¢ | $160 | +$8.11 | $0 | |
| Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026? | No | 156 | 17.6¢ | 100¢ | $156 | +$129 | $0 | |
| Natural Disaster in 2026? | Yes | 1,100 | 30.1¢ | 8¢ | $88 | −$243 | $0 | |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | No | 362 | 64.9¢ | 19.5¢ | $71 | −$164 | $0 | |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 3,392 | 1.4¢ | 1.7¢ | $56 | +$8.54 | $0 | |
| SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 814 | 17.5¢ | 5.9¢ | $48 | −$95 | $0 | |
| Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30? | No | 26 | 86¢ | 100¢ | $26 | +$3.60 | $0 | |
| Will PS win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? | Yes | 540 | 0.4¢ | 0.6¢ | $3.24 | +$1.16 | +$7.77 | |
| Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? | Yes | 15 | 27¢ | 15¢ | $2.32 | −$1.85 | +$117 | |
| Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? | Yes | 11 | 0.4¢ | 19¢ | $2.09 | +$2.04 | +$32 | |
| Will there be exactly 3 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? | Yes | 26 | 3.3¢ | 6.3¢ | $1.66 | +$0.79 | $0 | |
| Will FREPASNA win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? | Yes | 57 | 0.1¢ | 1.7¢ | $0.93 | +$0.88 | +$13 | |
| Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026? | Yes | 14 | 15.7¢ | 5.5¢ | $0.79 | −$1.47 | +$0.70 | |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 43.8k | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$108 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 7,752 | 0.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$69 | $0 | |
| Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 4,993 | 2.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$141 | $0 | |
| Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 4,426 | 2.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$111 | +$63 | |
| Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 3,989 | 2.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$101 | +$8.98 | |
| Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 3,824 | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$43 | +$106 | |
| Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 3,612 | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$27 | +$53 | |
| Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? | Yes | 2,464 | 20.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$502 | +$60 | |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 1,941 | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$22 | +$9.94 | |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 1,628 | 3.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$59 | $0 | |
| Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 1,578 | 0.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$9.47 | +$6.50 | |
| Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 1,401 | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$43 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 1,126 | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$12 | +$7.89 | |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? | Yes | 1,107 | 30.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$335 | +$36 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | No | 1,000 | 6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$60 | $0 | |
| Will ByteDance have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 1,000 | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$7.00 | $0 | |
| Nothing Ever Happens: March | Something | 766 | 49.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$376 | $0 | |
| Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 679 | 2.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$19 | +$50 | |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? | Yes | 601 | 3.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$23 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? | Yes | 545 | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.09 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? | Yes | 538 | 11.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$60 | +$134 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026? | Yes | 531 | 3.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$17 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? | Yes | 529 | 5.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$31 | $0 | |
| Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? | Yes | 525 | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.39 | +$1.30 | |
| Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? | No | 523 | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$11 | +$75 | |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 17? | Down | 515 | 3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$16 | $0 | |
| Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? | Yes | 514 | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.54 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | Yes | 504 | 2.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$14 | $0 | |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 500 | 39¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$195 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? | Yes | 500 | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.50 | $0 | |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Yes | 500 | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.50 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | No | 500 | 24¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$120 | $0 | |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1? | Yes | 500 | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.50 | $0 | |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1? | Yes | 500 | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.50 | $0 | |
| Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 500 | 1.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$8.50 | $0 | |
| Will Chloé Zhao win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 500 | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.50 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of February 2026? | No | 458 | 56.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$257 | +$49 | |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31? | Yes | 455 | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.06 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026? | Yes | 454 | 7.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$33 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | Yes | 450 | 11.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$51 | $0 | |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 340 | 29¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$99 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? | No | 340 | 9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$31 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 315 | 5.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$17 | $0 | |
| Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? | Yes | 212 | 19.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$42 | $0 | |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Yes | 200 | 37¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$74 | $0 | |
| Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 200 | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.32 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? | Yes | 167 | 6.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$11 | $0 | |
| Will Rashid Shaheed win the Super Bowl LX MVP? | Yes | 167 | 1.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.67 | $0 | |
| Will Marcus Jones win the Super Bowl LX MVP? | Yes | 167 | 0.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.00 | $0 | |
| Will Claude 5 be released on February 7, 2026? | Yes | 154 | 0.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.23 | +$1.80 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 152 | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.61 | $0 | |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET | Down | 150 | 6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$9.00 | $0 | |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET | Down | 150 | 6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$9.00 | $0 | |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET | Up | 150 | 6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$9.00 | $0 | |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET | Down | 150 | 6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$9.00 | $0 | |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET | Down | 150 | 6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$9.00 | $0 | |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET | Up | 150 | 6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$9.00 | $0 | |
| Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by June 30? | Yes | 100 | 6.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$6.60 | $0 | |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET | Up | 100 | 6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$6.00 | $0 | |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET | Down | 100 | 6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$6.00 | $0 | |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET | Up | 98 | 51.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$51 | $0 | |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET | Up | 98 | 51.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$51 | $0 | |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31? | Yes | 95 | 1.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.24 | $0 | |
| Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 89 | 5.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4.68 | $0 | |
| Will Francisco Trincão record the most Player of the Match awards during the 2025 UEFA Champions League? | Yes | 82 | 2.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.86 | +$3.31 | |
| Will Nvidia run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? | Yes | 80 | 8.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$6.64 | $0 | |
| Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (March 29) | No | 78 | 14.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$11 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $680b and $690b on February 28? | Yes | 74 | 15¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$11 | $0 | |
| Caroline Ellison new boyfriend by January 31? | Yes | 72 | 1.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.01 | $0 | |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party win by between 130 and 159 seats? | Yes | 70 | 3.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.30 | $0 | |
| Will Grok 4.20 not be released by February 14, 2026? | No | 67 | 2.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.48 | $0 | |
| Will Trump say "Dark cloud" this week? (March 29) | No | 67 | 45.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$30 | $0 | |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET | Down | 66 | 6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.96 | $0 | |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026? | Yes | 58 | 18.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$11 | $0 | |
| Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.30–2.40 in February? | Yes | 58 | 10.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$6.05 | $0 | |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET | Up | 50 | 6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.00 | $0 | |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET | Up | 50 | 6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.00 | $0 | |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET | Down | 50 | 6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.00 | $0 | |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET | Down | 50 | 6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.00 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? | Yes | 50 | 42¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$21 | $0 | |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET | Down | 50 | 6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.00 | $0 | |