| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 10.0k | 50¢ | 77.3¢ | $7,725 | +$2,725 | $0 | |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 10.0k | 50¢ | 22.8¢ | $2,275 | −$2,725 | $0 | |
| Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,247 | 79.6¢ | 94.5¢ | $1,178 | +$186 | +$294 | |
| Eric Adams charged by December 31? | No | 847 | 73.6¢ | 86.5¢ | $733 | +$109 | +$17 | |
| Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | No | 678 | 94¢ | 95¢ | $644 | +$6.78 | $0 | |
| Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | No | 501 | 94¢ | 97.7¢ | $490 | +$18 | $0 | |
| Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? | No | 405 | 79.8¢ | 97.9¢ | $397 | +$73 | +$9.32 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | Yes | 447 | 68.4¢ | 77.5¢ | $347 | +$41 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? | Yes | 740 | 46.5¢ | 26.5¢ | $196 | −$148 | $0 | |
| Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | No | 183 | 94¢ | 95.5¢ | $175 | +$2.75 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? | No | 211 | 38¢ | 70.2¢ | $148 | +$68 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? | Yes | 474 | 22.9¢ | 27.5¢ | $130 | +$22 | +$50 | |
| GTA VI released by November 30? | Yes | 103 | 94.8¢ | 95.7¢ | $98 | +$0.92 | $0 | |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 112 | 79¢ | 86.5¢ | $97 | +$8.40 | $0 | |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | No | 58 | 70.8¢ | 80.5¢ | $47 | +$5.61 | $0 | |
| Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards? | Yes | 35 | 66¢ | 64.5¢ | $23 | −$0.53 | $0 | |
| Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | No | 22 | 91¢ | 91.5¢ | $20 | +$0.11 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 1,095 | 1.5¢ | 1.7¢ | $19 | +$2.19 | $0 | |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31? | No | 14 | 90¢ | 96.6¢ | $14 | +$0.94 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027? | No | 104 | 0.4¢ | 6.3¢ | $6.50 | +$6.08 | $0 | |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs | Top Esports | 52.0k | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$150 | −$13 | |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner | G2 Esports | 46.4k | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$127 | −$23 | |
| LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner | Team Liquid | 22.9k | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$51 | −$1.32 | |
| LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner | Karmine Corp | 11.4k | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$42 | +$24 | |
| Will FURIA win MSI 2026? | Yes | 11.2k | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$20 | −$0.01 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 10.3k | 1.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$183 | −$223 | |
| LoL: T1 vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs | FURIA Esports | 10.0k | 1.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$150 | $0 | |
| Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? | Yes | 9,640 | 0.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$62 | −$0.17 | |
| ZEDI Esports to win 2-0? | Yes | 8,307 | 6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$501 | +$20 | |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Yes | 7,686 | 7.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$596 | −$671 | |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner | Top Esports | 7,375 | 12.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$917 | +$31 | |
| LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner | Deep Cross Gaming | 6,480 | 5.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$370 | −$3.35 | |
| LoL: LYON vs Team Secret Whales - Game 3 Winner | Team Secret Whales | 5,676 | 12.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$694 | −$5.95 | |
| Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 5,656 | 0.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$47 | −$1.81 | |
| Will the International Association of Judges win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 5,442 | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$25 | −$0.02 | |
| Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 5,217 | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$56 | −$0.01 | |
| Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 5,217 | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$56 | −$0.01 | |
| Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 5,217 | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$56 | −$0.01 | |
| Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 5,217 | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$56 | −$0.01 | |
| Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 5,217 | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$56 | −$0.01 | |
| Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 5,217 | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$56 | −$0.01 | |
| Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 5,217 | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$56 | −$0.01 | |
| Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 5,217 | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$56 | −$0.01 | |
| Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 5,217 | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$56 | −$0.01 | |
| Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 5,217 | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$56 | −$0.01 | |
| Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 5,217 | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$56 | −$0.01 | |
| Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 5,217 | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$56 | −$0.01 | |
| Will Mesías Guevara win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 5,217 | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$56 | −$0.01 | |
| Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 5,217 | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$56 | −$0.01 | |
| Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 5,217 | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$56 | −$0.01 | |
| Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 5,217 | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$56 | −$0.01 | |
| Will Fernando Olivera win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 5,217 | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$56 | −$0.01 | |
| Will Enrique Valderrama win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 5,217 | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$56 | −$0.01 | |
| Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 5,217 | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$56 | −$0.01 | |
| Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 5,217 | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$56 | −$0.01 | |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner | Top Esports | 4,748 | 1.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$77 | +$213 | |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026? | Yes | 4,138 | 3.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$135 | −$5.15 | |
| Will Team Secret Whales win MSI 2026? | Yes | 3,074 | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.07 | −$0.04 | |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 16, 2026? | Yes | 2,957 | 5.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$174 | −$7.41 | |
| LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner | Deep Cross Gaming | 2,500 | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.50 | −$0.04 | |
| Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 2,360 | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$8.90 | −$0.33 | |
| Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 2,360 | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$8.90 | −$0.33 | |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 2,360 | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$8.90 | −$0.33 | |
| Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 2,360 | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$8.90 | −$0.33 | |
| Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 2,360 | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$8.90 | −$0.33 | |
| Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 2,360 | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$8.90 | −$0.33 | |
| Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 2,360 | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$8.90 | −$0.33 | |
| Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 2,360 | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$8.90 | −$0.33 | |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | Yes | 2,171 | 5.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$112 | −$76 | |
| LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner | Team Liquid | 2,105 | 0.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$13 | −$0.30 | |
| Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? | Yes | 2,085 | 1.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$41 | $0 | |
| Will World Central Kitchen win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 2,064 | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$15 | −$0.70 | |
| LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports - Game 3 Winner | FURIA Esports | 2,000 | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.00 | −$108 | |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner | G2 Esports | 2,000 | 13¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$260 | −$2.70 | |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? | No | 2,000 | 1.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$28 | −$1.10 | |
| LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 2 Winner | T1 | 2,000 | 18.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$377 | +$28 | |
| LoL: LYON vs Team Secret Whales - Game 2 Winner | Team Secret Whales | 2,000 | 1.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$24 | $0 | |
| LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage | DN SOOPers | 1,895 | 39.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$751 | +$22 | |
| LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner | Top Esports | 1,854 | 30.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$568 | −$19 | |
| Will Reporters Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 1,833 | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.67 | −$0.18 | |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner | T1 | 1,790 | 57.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,030 | +$6.73 | |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026? | No | 1,645 | 26.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$433 | +$7.40 | |
| Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.7–0.8%? | Yes | 1,643 | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$12 | $0 | |
| Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.8–0.9%? | Yes | 1,643 | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$12 | $0 | |
| Will T1 win MSI 2026? | Yes | 1,419 | 4.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$60 | −$1.25 | |
| LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 1 Winner | Bilibili Gaming | 1,401 | 16.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$233 | +$471 | |
| LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 | DK | 1,256 | 67¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$842 | −$53 | |
| Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 1,220 | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4.60 | −$3.49 | |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? | Yes | 1,135 | 27.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$315 | +$552 | |
| Will Mark Carney win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 1,020 | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.04 | −$0.10 | |
| LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LYON - Game 1 Winner | LYON | 1,000 | 3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$30 | $0 | |
| LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner | Top Esports | 1,000 | 31¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$310 | +$95 | |
| Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 954 | 2.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$25 | −$5.97 | |
| Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 954 | 3.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$37 | −$41 | |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? | Yes | 906 | 3.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$35 | +$309 | |
| LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner | Deep Cross Gaming | 753 | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.51 | −$44 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 15, 2026? | Yes | 683 | 2.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$18 | −$0.25 | |
| Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 652 | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.65 | −$0.03 | |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? | Yes | 651 | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.30 | −$7.62 | |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner | T1 | 625 | 6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$37 | $0 | |
