sharpside
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Traders/Rank #3,492

Dirty-Burn

0x7c1…5783
WR 60+SportPoliticsCulture
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$6,380vol $195k
PnL 30d−$3,576gains $19.5k · losses $14.0k
PnL 7d−$266win rate 7d 81.6%
Win rate68.8%adj 68.1% · 30d 82.5%
Open value$9,549cash n/a
Positions325 / 1,677open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age7molast trade 20m ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$3,735below peak −$4,051Oct 8

SharpScore inputs

40/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 68.8% · shrunk toward 50%70
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
LoL: Maryville University vs Cupid Esports (BO5) - LCS Promotion PlayoffsMaryville University1,80070.4¢68¢$1,224−$44$0
Exact Score: Any Other Score?No1,42960.1¢81¢$1,157+$299$0
Exact Score: Any Other Score?No1,14979.1¢97¢$1,114+$205$0
Exact Score: Any Other Score?No1,08588¢94.8¢$1,029+$73$0
Exact Score: Any Other Score?No1,08689¢88.5¢$961−$5.43$0
Exact Score: Any Other Score?No98058.7¢90¢$882+$306$0
Exact Score: Any Other Score?No49180¢94.6¢$464+$72$0
Exact Score: Any Other Score?No52587¢87.5¢$459+$2.63$0
Exact Score: Any Other Score?No52570¢86¢$452+$84$0
LoL: Maryville University vs Cupid Esports (BO5) - LCS Promotion PlayoffsCupid Esports81367.9¢32¢$260−$291$0
Will "Wild Horse Nine" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?No21192¢91.5¢$193−$1.05$0
Will Republicans win 2 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?No18940.5¢58¢$110+$33$0
Wuning 3: Completed Match: Keisuke Saitoh vs Akira SantillanNo1703¢47.5¢$81+$76$0
Will MrBeast say "Minecraft" during his next gaming YouTube video?Yes6150¢77¢$47+$16$0
Will Putin hold a bilateral meeting with Serdar Berdimuhamedov in Turkmenistan?Yes4052.5¢97.5¢$39+$18$0
Will Putin hold a bilateral meeting with Alexander Lukashenko in Turkmenistan?Yes4038.5¢77.5¢$31+$16$0
Will Manchester City be stripped of a Premier League title by June 30, 2027?No3741¢73.5¢$27+$12$0
Will OpenRouter process at least 725T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25?No3060¢89.5¢$27+$8.94$0
Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 31?Yes4026¢59¢$24+$13$0
Will "Prize" be in the headlines this week?Yes3858.9¢59¢$22+$0.05$0
Will MrBeast say "Build" during his next gaming YouTube video?Yes5750¢38.5¢$22−$6.51$0
Will MrBeast's next video get at least 150 million views on week 1?Yes2067¢100¢$20+$6.59$0
Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15?Yes606¢31.5¢$19+$15$0
Will the Houston Texans be the last winless team of the 2026-27 NFL regular season?No2050¢93.7¢$19+$8.74$0
Will Nathan MacKinnon record 100+ points?Yes2050¢92.5¢$19+$8.50$0
Will Connor McDavid record 100+ points?Yes2050¢91.6¢$18+$8.31$0
Will ByteDance have the third highest private market valuation at the end of October?Yes2050¢91¢$18+$8.20$0
Will Z.ai have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?No2076¢90.2¢$18+$2.84$0
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 31M tonnes at end of October 2026?Yes2050¢89.5¢$18+$7.90$0
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 32M tonnes at end of October 2026?Yes2050¢89.5¢$18+$7.90$0
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster?Yes3620¢49¢$17+$10$0
Will Leon Draisaitl record 100+ points?Yes2026¢86.7¢$17+$12$0
Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?Yes3026¢57¢$17+$9.30$0
Will there be 2+ walk-offs during the 2026 MLB Postseason?Yes2050¢84¢$17+$6.80$0
Will Meta's Watermelon model debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?Yes2050¢83.5¢$17+$6.70$0
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 30?Yes2055¢82.5¢$17+$5.50$0
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 22?Yes2053¢78.5¢$16+$5.10$0
Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?Yes2025¢77.5¢$16+$11$0
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 24?Yes1953¢81.5¢$15+$5.42$0
Will Putin hold a bilateral meeting with Ilham Aliyev in Turkmenistan?Yes4027¢38.5¢$15+$4.60$0
Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by December 31, 2026?No2357¢66.5¢$15+$2.19$0
Will Trump say "Complex" this week?Yes3050¢50¢$15$0$0
Will Trump say "Blowing it away" this week?No3026¢50¢$15+$7.20$0
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before June 30, 2027?No2046¢75¢$15+$5.80$0
Will Iran target Iraq by October 31, 2026?Yes2050¢73¢$15+$4.60$0
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 107m by October 31?Yes2129¢69¢$14+$8.40$0
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?No2037¢71.5¢$14+$6.90$0
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?Yes2032¢69.5¢$14+$7.50$0
Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?Yes1749¢83.5¢$14+$5.72$0
Will Nolo peak at Category 5?No1462¢99.1¢$14+$5.08$0
Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Yes2028¢65.5¢$13+$7.50$0
Mortgage delinquency rate exceeds 3% by end of Q4 2027?No2052¢62.5¢$13+$2.10$0
Will Meta's Watermelon model debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?Yes1850¢70¢$12+$3.55$0
Will John Cornyn not endorse anyone in the Texas Senate Election?Yes1548¢85¢$12+$5.40$0
Will the longest game of the 2026 MLB Postseason last 11+ innings?Yes2050¢62¢$12+$2.39$0
Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?No2039¢61.5¢$12+$4.50$0
Will Trump say "Psychological" or "Psychologically" this week?Yes2526¢49¢$12+$5.75$0
Will "Korea" or "Korean" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?No2750¢44¢$12−$1.65$0
Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?Yes2031¢59.5¢$12+$5.70$0
Will Trump post "Rigged" on Truth Social this week?No2526¢46¢$12+$5.00$0
Will the chopsticks catch the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?No1646¢71¢$11+$4.01$0
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026?Yes1349¢88¢$11+$4.97$0
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 28?Yes1367¢82.5¢$11+$2.02$0
Saudi troops enter Sanaa by December 31, 2026?No1175¢93.5¢$10+$2.04$0
OpenAI resumes training by October 31, 2026?No2229¢46¢$10+$3.70$0
Will Trump say "Pipeline" during his Midterm Rally in New York?No2031¢47¢$9.40+$3.20$0
Will JD Vance say "Police" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?No2033¢47¢$9.40+$2.80$0
Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?Yes2023¢47¢$9.40+$4.80$0
OpenAI resumes training by October 10, 2026?No1152¢85.5¢$9.04+$3.54$0
Will Troy Jackson underperform Kamala in Maine?No2031¢43.5¢$8.70+$2.50$0
Will Trump post "Scam" on Truth Social this week?No2028¢43.5¢$8.70+$3.10$0
US bank failure by December 31, 2026?Yes1860¢47¢$8.58−$2.37$0
Closer Senate Race: Minnesota or Mississippi?Mississippi2026¢40.5¢$8.10+$2.90$0
Will Mailza Assis win the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election?No2492.7¢3.2¢$7.85+$1.10$0
Will the Democrats win Mahoning County in the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Yes1344¢61.5¢$7.69+$2.19$0
Will US win 35-40% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?No1065¢78¢$7.54+$1.26$0
Will there be no Meta Watermelon model release by October 31, 2026?Yes307¢25¢$7.50+$5.40$0
Will JD Vance say "Job" 10+ times during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?No2034¢37¢$7.40+$0.60$0
Will Trump say "Six Seven" in October?Yes1650¢45.5¢$7.39−$0.73$0
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?No870¢93¢$7.29+$1.80$0
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?No864¢80.5¢$6.64+$1.36$0
Exact Score: Any Other Score?No1051¢62.5¢$6.25+$1.15$0
Will Trump say "TikTok" or "ByteDance" in October?Yes2250¢28.5¢$6.13−$4.62$0
Will Putin hold a bilateral meeting with Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow in Turkmenistan?Yes2026¢30¢$6.00+$0.80$0
Will the IEA ask France to release oil stocks by December 31?Yes1849¢33¢$5.94−$2.88$0
Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?Yes2027¢28.9¢$5.78+$0.38$0
Will the longest game of the 2026 MLB Postseason last 13+ innings?Yes2027¢27.5¢$5.50+$0.10$0
Will Meta's Watermelon model debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?No1741¢30.5¢$5.21−$1.80$0
Will US win less than 35% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?No575¢98.5¢$4.92+$1.17$0
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 31, 2026?No564¢92¢$4.60+$1.40$0
Will Tina Kotek underperform Kamala in Oregon?Yes528¢92¢$4.60+$3.20$0
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by at least 20%?No554¢91.1¢$4.55+$1.85$0
Will Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović win the third most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?No582¢86.9¢$4.33+$0.24$0
No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?No change522¢85¢$4.25+$3.15$0
Will the Student List win 50% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?No587¢83.8¢$4.18−$0.16$0
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 33M tonnes at end of October 2026?Yes529¢83.5¢$4.17+$2.73$0
Will Democrats win white voters in the midterms?No587¢81¢$4.04−$0.30$0
Will Republicans win white voters in the midterms?Yes586¢79.5¢$3.98−$0.33$0
Will Professora Maria do Carmo win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?Yes3014¢12.5¢$3.75−$0.45$0
Exact Score: Any Other Score?No653¢62.5¢$3.75+$0.57$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY HeatPelicans vs. Heat77.8¢248$19369%40
BUY HeatPelicans vs. Heat78¢548$42769%40
BUY HeatPelicans vs. Heat77¢259$19969%40
BUY HeatPelicans vs. Heat75.4¢543$41069%40
BUY HeatPelicans vs. Heat75¢431$32369%40
BUY YesWill Trump say "Transgender" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?69¢23$1669%40
BUY Maryville UniversityLoL: Maryville University vs Cupid Esports (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs81.8¢244$19969%40
BUY Maryville UniversityLoL: Maryville University vs Cupid Esports (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs80.7¢184$14969%40
BUY Maryville UniversityLoL: Maryville University vs Cupid Esports (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs70.4¢531$37469%40
BUY NoExact Score: Any Other Score?50¢5$2.5069%40
BUY Maryville UniversityLoL: Maryville University vs Cupid Esports (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs69.9¢499$34969%40
BUY Maryville UniversityLoL: Maryville University vs Cupid Esports (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs70.8¢422$29969%40
BUY Maryville UniversityLoL: Maryville University vs Cupid Esports (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs74.4¢582$43369%40
BUY Maryville UniversityLoL: Maryville University vs Cupid Esports (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs74.2¢378$28069%40
BUY Maryville UniversityLoL: Maryville University vs Cupid Esports (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs73.4¢453$33269%40
BUY Maryville UniversityLoL: Maryville University vs Cupid Esports (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs73.7¢434$32069%40
BUY Maryville UniversityLoL: Maryville University vs Cupid Esports (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs73.2¢535$39269%40
BUY Maryville UniversityLoL: Maryville University vs Cupid Esports (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs73¢178$13069%40
BUY Maryville UniversityLoL: Maryville University vs Cupid Esports (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs73¢150$11069%40
BUY Maryville UniversityLoL: Maryville University vs Cupid Esports (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs70.4¢1,800$1,26869%40