sharpside
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Traders/Rank #3,385

bmtr

0x7d1…e75c
PnL 10k+1y+PoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$16.0kvol $734k
PnL 30d−$1,133gains $2,560 · losses $1,119
PnL 7d−$605win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate54.9%adj 54.7% · 30d 87.9%
Open value$9,624cash n/a
Positions42 / 463open / all-time
Max drawdown−23.0%of equity peak
Account age1.1ylast trade 16h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$14.4kbelow peak −$4,218Oct 13

SharpScore inputs

66/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale60
Adjusted win rateraw 54.9% · shrunk toward 50%37
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable89
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d98
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity77

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 42

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes7,64843.2¢28¢$2,141−$1,165−$19
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes4,70954.9¢41.5¢$1,954−$633−$13
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?Yes95045.3¢73¢$694+$263+$3.70
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?No64793.9¢98.5¢$637+$30+$1.54
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No65989¢93¢$613+$26+$0.92
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes1,08012.5¢42.5¢$459+$324+$79
Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?No48093.6¢93.7¢$450+$0.51+$0.11
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?Yes67950.6¢62¢$421+$77+$7.56
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes4,4676.7¢8.5¢$377+$79+$58
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?Yes1,05945.1¢32¢$339−$138−$0.38
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Yes66953.3¢38¢$254−$102+$2.70
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes45649¢55.5¢$253+$30+$0.82
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Yes1,90927.6¢11¢$210−$317+$34
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?Yes1,08040.8¢15.5¢$167−$273+$1.09
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Yes18457.8¢56¢$103−$3.26$0
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?Yes42321¢19.5¢$82−$6.24$0
Will Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?Yes30517.8¢18¢$55+$0.60$0
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?Yes15538¢34.5¢$53−$5.42$0
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes7,9622¢0.7¢$52−$104+$1.75
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?Yes8047¢64.5¢$52+$14$0
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?Yes10051.7¢50.1¢$50−$1.53$0
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?No5059¢96.1¢$48+$19$0
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?No4560.6¢86¢$39+$11$0
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes5549.4¢50.5¢$28+$0.63$0
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31?Yes13032¢18¢$23−$18+$25
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Yes6545.2¢3.5¢$23−$11$0
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Yes316¢51¢$16+$14$0
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes207.7¢68.9¢$14+$12$0
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?Yes1127.4¢6.5¢$7.26−$0.96$0
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes5935.7¢0.9¢$5.04−$29$0
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?Yes14221.4¢1.2¢$1.71−$29$0
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes283.3¢5.3¢$1.48+$0.56$0
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes201¢0.1¢$0.01−$0.19$0
Will Nvidia have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes201¢0.1¢$0.01−$0.19$0
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes4,13710.7¢0¢$0−$442+$64
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?Yes1,76155.9¢0¢$0−$985−$7.18
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?Yes50525.6¢0¢$0−$129+$4.51
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?Yes21953.6¢0¢$0−$118−$1.54
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?Yes1660.1¢0¢$0−$0.17$0
Will Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?Yes145.1¢0¢$0−$0.70−$0.03
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes121.6¢0¢$0−$0.19+$9.03
Will Thinky have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?Yes71¢0¢$0−$0.07$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?93¢444$41355%66
BUY YesWill Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of December 2026?50¢20$1055%66
BUY YesWill Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of December 2026?49¢35$1755%66
BUY YesWill OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of December 2026?3.3¢28$0.9255%66
BUY YesWill OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?28¢36$1055%66
BUY YesWill Anthropic have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?57.3¢124$7155%66
BUY YesWill Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?52.8¢80$4255%66
BUY YesWill Google have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?38¢155$5955%66
BUY YesWill OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?7.4¢112$8.2155%66
BUY YesWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?5.2¢400$2155%66
BUY YesWill Anthropic have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?74¢20$1555%66
BUY YesWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?6¢259$1555%66
BUY YesWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?5¢427$2155%66
BUY YesWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?47¢1,026$48255%66
BUY NoWill xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?89¢679$60455%66
BUY YesWill Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?50.7¢40$2055%66
BUY YesWill Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?46¢77$3555%66
BUY YesWill Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?44.6¢205$9155%66
BUY YesWill OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?25.2¢130$3355%66
BUY YesWill OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?23¢50$1255%66