PnL all-time−$80.1kvol $5.71M
PnL 30d+$2,204gains $0 · losses $7,967
PnL 7d−$397win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate46.9%adj 48.1% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$34.0kcash n/a
Positions6 / 38open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age12molast trade 14d ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL−$87.5kbelow peak −$94.9kOct 9
SharpScore inputs
16/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 46.9% · shrunk toward 50%20
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable53
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d51
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? · Yesclosed+$19.3kUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? · Noclosed+$14.5kUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? · Noclosed+$12.0kUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? · Noclosed+$8,308US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? · Noclosed+$3,550
Worst markets
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? · Yesclosed−$37.6kWill Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yesclosed−$27.0kIsrael x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? · Noclosed−$25.6kWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? · Yesclosed−$18.0kUS x Iran ceasefire by March 15? · Yesclosed−$13.2k
Open positions · 6
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 1.73M | 2.2¢ | 1.8¢ | $30.2k | −$7,483 | +$6.83 | |
| Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 397k | 1.6¢ | 1¢ | $3,769 | −$2,394 | −$9.42 | |
| Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 10.1k | 25.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,600 | −$97 | |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 10.0k | 51.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5,164 | −$125 | |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 763 | 17.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$135 | −$3.33 | |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 577 | 5.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$30 | −$0.85 |
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