sharpside
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ragutwo

0x7db…ed19
1y+PoliticsSport
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$4,421vol $321k
PnL 30d−$547gains $3,708 · losses $204
PnL 7d−$2,180win rate 7d 66.7%
Win rate53.6%adj 53.5% · 30d 68.6%
Open value$1,992cash n/a
Positions344 / 939open / all-time
Max drawdown−33.6%of equity peak
Account age1.7ylast trade 41m ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$4,665below peak −$2,262Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

61/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale52
Adjusted win rateraw 53.6% · shrunk toward 50%34
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable99
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity66

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Chuck Edwards out as US Rep before December 31, 2026?No52655.7¢80.5¢$423+$130+$64
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes55535.9¢52.4¢$291+$91−$1.74
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?No20081¢98.4¢$197+$35$0
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?Yes49222.1¢36¢$177+$68$0
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes21763.8¢58.5¢$127−$11−$2.70
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?Yes31920.3¢39.5¢$126+$61$0
Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Yes12063¢89¢$107+$31$0
Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?Yes25039¢35¢$87−$10$0
No one announced as next James Bond?Yes20917.8¢29.1¢$61+$24$0
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?No7568¢78¢$59+$7.50+$12
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?Yes14914.6¢34.4¢$51+$30$0
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?No30012.7¢15.5¢$47+$8.53$0
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?Yes43210.3¢7.6¢$33−$12+$1.20
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?No2763.8¢92.5¢$25+$7.88−$4.56
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?Yes19822¢12.3¢$24−$19−$7.09
Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?Yes1,1505.8¢2¢$23−$44$0
Will Manchester City be relegated from the Premier League in 2026-27?Yes6324.5¢30.5¢$19+$3.81$0
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes2053¢72.5¢$15+$3.90$0
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Yes18015.2¢7.5¢$14−$14$0
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?Yes2669.8¢4.9¢$13−$13$0
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Yes8728.5¢11¢$9.57−$15−$13
NATO article 5 before 2027?Yes1266.9¢5.4¢$6.76−$2.02$0
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026?Yes3722.9¢18¢$6.63−$1.79−$35
Will Todd Achilles win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?Yes1505.7¢4¢$5.92−$2.58$0
Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?Yes1710.8¢3.4¢$5.83+$4.46$0
Jack O'Connell announced as next James Bond?Yes1696.8¢3.5¢$5.82−$5.73$0
Jack Barton announced as next James Bond?Yes15315.2¢3.7¢$5.66−$18$0
Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by December 31, 2026?Yes3916.5¢13.5¢$5.33−$1.19−$0.60
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes1501.5¢3.1¢$4.65+$2.40$0
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?No549.6¢84¢$4.23+$1.73−$16
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Yes1409.1¢2.9¢$4.13−$8.67$0
Tom Francis announced as next James Bond?Yes1003¢3.4¢$3.35+$0.35$0
Harris Dickinson announced as next James Bond?Yes1771.7¢0.7¢$1.15−$1.89$0
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?Yes4714¢2.1¢$0.99−$5.59$0
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?Yes382¢2.3¢$0.86+$0.10$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes3011¢2.3¢$0.68−$2.63$0
Theo James announced as next James Bond?Yes612¢1¢$0.61−$0.61$0
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2026?Yes557¢11¢$0.55−$2.30$0
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?Yes7812.9¢0.7¢$0.55−$9.54−$0.66
James Norton announced as next James Bond?Yes201¢0.2¢$0.03−$0.17$0
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?Yes3,41921.6¢0¢$0−$739+$1.25
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?Yes3,39512.3¢0¢$0−$419$0
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?Yes3,23721.7¢0¢$0−$703$0
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 21-September 27?Yes2,76914.5¢0¢$0−$402+$0.26
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?Yes2,3310.6¢0¢$0−$13−$52
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?Yes2,16326.1¢0¢$0−$565+$8.45
Will Bitcoin dip to $42,500 in August?Yes2,1100.2¢0¢$0−$4.72−$0.33
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?Yes2,0130.7¢0¢$0−$15$0
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?Yes1,6810.4¢0¢$0−$6.58$0
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 17-August 23?Yes1,6673.7¢0¢$0−$61$0
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?Yes1,61113.3¢0¢$0−$214−$1.95
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?Yes1,47627.4¢0¢$0−$405−$5.97
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 17-August 23?Yes1,4240.2¢0¢$0−$2.85$0
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?Yes1,42149.8¢0¢$0−$707−$7.59
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?Yes1,22231.9¢0¢$0−$390+$79
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?Yes1,1860.4¢0¢$0−$4.75−$0.24
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes1,0000.4¢0¢$0−$4.00−$0.12
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes1,0000.1¢0¢$0−$1.00−$0.03
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?Yes1,0000.1¢0¢$0−$1.00−$0.05
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?Yes9633.5¢0¢$0−$34−$8.92
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?Yes9397.9¢0¢$0−$74−$16
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 31-September 6?Yes81914.6¢0¢$0−$119+$5.29
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?Yes7548.3¢0¢$0−$63+$10
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?Yes69227.3¢0¢$0−$189+$1.75
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes6001.1¢0¢$0−$6.60+$1.42
Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026?Yes5400.4¢0¢$0−$2.02$0
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by September 30?No52743.1¢0¢$0−$227+$9.79
Will Lara Trump be the next White House Press Secretary?Yes5000.8¢0¢$0−$4.00−$0.16
Will Bitcoin dip to $37,500 in July?Yes5000.2¢0¢$0−$1.00−$0.07
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes5000.2¢0¢$0−$1.00−$0.03
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 31-September 6?Yes4770.5¢0¢$0−$2.55$0
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?Yes4539.8¢0¢$0−$45+$7.86
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?Yes45025.9¢0¢$0−$116$0
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April?No4480.5¢0¢$0−$2.02−$0.04
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No4356.1¢0¢$0−$26+$33
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?No4000.3¢0¢$0−$1.20$0
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?No3964.3¢0¢$0−$17−$1.14
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on July 15?No3820.9¢0¢$0−$3.55−$1.14
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Yes37825.3¢0¢$0−$96+$59
Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?No37428¢0¢$0−$105+$44
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?Yes36012.5¢0¢$0−$45+$18
Will Jay Clayton be Trump's AI czar?No3450.9¢0¢$0−$3.23−$2.47
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?Yes3446.6¢0¢$0−$23−$21
Will Russell Fry win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Yes3186.8¢0¢$0−$22−$0.80
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes3121¢0¢$0−$3.12−$0.12
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?Yes3005¢0¢$0−$15$0
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 24-August 30?Yes2813.4¢0¢$0−$9.51$0
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?No27268.5¢0¢$0−$186$0
Will Kari Lake be the next White House Press Secretary?Yes2621.2¢0¢$0−$3.04−$0.12
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in October?No2591.6¢0¢$0−$4.20−$0.08
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?Yes2222.8¢0¢$0−$6.12−$2.78
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?Yes2196.6¢0¢$0−$14−$0.54
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?Yes2081.8¢0¢$0−$3.84−$10
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?No20045¢0¢$0−$90+$1.80
Will there be between 15 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?Yes2002¢0¢$0−$4.00$0
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?No19790.5¢0¢$0−$178+$4.14
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?Yes19210.3¢0¢$0−$20−$73
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Yes1773¢0¢$0−$5.32−$64
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?Yes17210.6¢0¢$0−$18+$3.17
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 5, 2026?Yes17112.4¢0¢$0−$21$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?6.6¢103$6.8154%61
BUY YesWill fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?11.9¢162$1954%61
BUY CardinalsLions vs. Cardinals11¢27$3.0054%61
BUY Seahawks49ers vs. Seahawks47¢11$5.0054%61
BUY YesWill 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?22¢100$2254%61
BUY YesWill 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?29¢50$1554%61
BUY YesWill 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?27¢12$3.2454%61
BUY YesWill 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?23¢59$1454%61
SELL YesWill 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?13¢111$1454%61
BUY YesWill 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?17¢198$3454%61
BUY YesWill 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?17.8¢40$7.1054%61
BUY YesWill 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?25¢72$1854%61
BUY YesWill 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?16.2¢81$1354%61
BUY YesWill at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?48.3¢150$7354%61
BUY BuccaneersBuccaneers vs. Cowboys19¢53$1054%61
BUY YesWill 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?20¢200$4054%61
BUY YesWill Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?63¢120$7654%61
BUY YesWill 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?10.4¢62$6.4954%61
BUY YesWill 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?6¢300$1854%61
BUY YesWill 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?69.6¢81$5754%61