| Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m? | No | 136 | 94.5¢ | 98¢ | $133 | +$4.70 | $0 | |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? | No | 183 | 67.1¢ | 70.5¢ | $129 | +$6.22 | $0 | |
| Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 45m? | No | 130 | 96.4¢ | 98.6¢ | $128 | +$2.79 | $0 | |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 17, 2026? | No | 110 | 90.8¢ | 95.3¢ | $105 | +$4.89 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027? | No | 100 | 55¢ | 67¢ | $67 | +$12 | +$3.80 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? | Yes | 180 | 49.4¢ | 28.2¢ | $51 | −$38 | −$0.24 | |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | Yes | 50 | 22.3¢ | 78.5¢ | $39 | +$28 | +$0.13 | |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | No | 100 | 12¢ | 31¢ | $31 | +$19 | $0 | |
| Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 106 | 1.1¢ | 27.8¢ | $29 | +$28 | $0 | |
| Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 68 | 23.5¢ | 41.3¢ | $28 | +$12 | $0 | |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | Yes | 180 | 15¢ | 14¢ | $25 | −$1.80 | $0 | |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 120 | 70.6¢ | 20.5¢ | $25 | −$60 | −$4.74 | |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 1,500 | 0.6¢ | 1.5¢ | $22 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 55 | 28.2¢ | 32.8¢ | $18 | +$2.53 | $0 | |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 0%-4%? | Yes | 61 | 17.5¢ | 23.5¢ | $14 | +$3.69 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 20 | 28¢ | 65¢ | $13 | +$7.40 | $0 | |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 15, 2026? | Yes | 200 | 7.5¢ | 5.6¢ | $11 | −$3.90 | $0 | |
| Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 107 | 83.9¢ | 7¢ | $7.51 | −$83 | $0 | |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 100 | 0.6¢ | 6.9¢ | $6.90 | +$6.30 | +$22 | |
| Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 18 | 28¢ | 38.5¢ | $6.78 | +$1.85 | $0 | |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 16, 2026? | No | 7 | 79.3¢ | 94.2¢ | $6.53 | +$1.03 | +$69 | |
| Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 46 | 2.8¢ | 13.5¢ | $6.17 | +$4.89 | $0 | |
| Will Meta have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 73 | 1¢ | 6.6¢ | $4.80 | +$4.07 | $0 | |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 4%-8%? | Yes | 50 | 1.3¢ | 9¢ | $4.48 | +$3.83 | $0 | |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 13, 2026? | Yes | 26 | 5.2¢ | 10.4¢ | $2.70 | +$1.35 | $0 | |
| Will Xiaomi be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 224 | 0.1¢ | 0.5¢ | $1.12 | +$0.90 | $0 | |
| Will Xiaomi be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 6 | 0.5¢ | 17.3¢ | $1.00 | +$0.97 | $0 | |
| Will Moonshot be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 35 | 0.8¢ | 2.1¢ | $0.73 | +$0.46 | $0 | |
| Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 5 | 21¢ | 13¢ | $0.65 | −$0.40 | $0 | |
| Will Z.ai be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 20 | 5¢ | 2.5¢ | $0.49 | −$0.51 | $0 | |
| Will Z.ai be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 10 | 0.5¢ | 3.1¢ | $0.31 | +$0.26 | $0 | |
| Will Xiaomi be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 29 | 0.6¢ | 1¢ | $0.29 | +$0.12 | $0 | |
| Will Meta be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 5.8¢ | $0.29 | +$0.25 | $0 | |
| Will Moonshot be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 10 | 0.6¢ | 1¢ | $0.10 | +$0.04 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 3,127 | 1.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$57 | −$1.76 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 1,330 | 2.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$35 | −$1.12 | |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 1,000 | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4.00 | −$0.16 | |
| Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 916 | 86.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$794 | −$4.94 | |
| Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 787 | 81.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$645 | −$226 | |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | Yes | 770 | 2.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$21 | +$2.10 | |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? | No | 745 | 61.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$460 | −$56 | |
| Will Z.ai have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 688 | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.69 | −$0.03 | |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 650 | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.05 | $0 | |
| Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 620 | 53.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$330 | $0 | |
| Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 599 | 26.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$161 | −$2.61 | |
| Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 504 | 2.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$15 | $0 | |
| Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 500 | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.50 | $0 | |
| Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 500 | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.00 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? | Yes | 489 | 9.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$47 | −$68 | |
| Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 464 | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.46 | −$0.02 | |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510? | Yes | 437 | 15.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$66 | −$34 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 10, 2026? | Yes | 400 | 5.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$23 | −$0.13 | |
| Will there be no next Grok model (4.7+) release by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 380 | 1.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$6.78 | −$0.02 | |
| UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) | Khamzat Chimaev | 370 | 81¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$300 | −$1.71 | |
| Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 350 | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.05 | $0 | |
| Will DeepSeek have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 342 | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.34 | $0 | |
| Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 17, 2026? | Yes | 341 | 37.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$127 | −$37 | |
| Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 340 | 42.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$144 | +$44 | |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between August 31 and September 6, 2026? | No | 307 | 40.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$123 | −$0.07 | |
| Will Meta have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 300 | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.50 | $0 | |
| Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 300 | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.20 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Flash model be released on or prior to September 1, 2026? | Yes | 289 | 15.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$45 | −$0.11 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026? | No | 288 | 61¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$176 | +$1.13 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 27, 2026? | Yes | 270 | 11.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$31 | $0 | |
| Will Lionel Messi win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 265 | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.06 | −$0.05 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 28, 2026? | Yes | 248 | 14.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$36 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between September 21 and September 27, 2026? | Yes | 246 | 2.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.90 | $0 | |
| Will any other model be the best AI model on August 31, 2026? | Yes | 245 | 0.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.96 | $0 | |
| Will Meta have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 244 | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.49 | +$0.31 | |
| Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 5, 2026? | Yes | 240 | 13.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$33 | −$1.15 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 30, 2026? | Yes | 237 | 12.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$30 | $0 | |
| Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 29, 2026? | Yes | 227 | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.68 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 220 | 4.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10 | $0 | |
| Will Claude Mythos be released on June 10? | Yes | 216 | 50.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$109 | −$0.29 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 23, 2026? | Yes | 213 | 29.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$63 | −$105 | |
| Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 30, 2026? | Yes | 210 | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.85 | −$0.01 | |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? | Yes | 207 | 4.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$9.69 | −$0.37 | |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026? | Yes | 200 | 80¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$160 | $0 | |
| Will Moonshot have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 200 | 1.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.00 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 29, 2026? | Yes | 200 | 2.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.60 | −$0.18 | |
| Will SpaceXAI be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 200 | 0.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.20 | $0 | |
| Will Moonshot be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 200 | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.00 | $0 | |
| Will Moonshot be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 200 | 2.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.00 | $0 | |
| Will Z.ai be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 200 | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.00 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 200 | 1.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.00 | $0 | |
| Will Google be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 200 | 0.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.64 | −$0.06 | |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026? | Yes | 200 | 5.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$11 | $0 | |
| Will Moonshot be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 200 | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.63 | −$0.01 | |
| Will Xiaomi be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 200 | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.00 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 11, 2026? | Yes | 200 | 2.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4.43 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 193 | 1.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.90 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 12, 2026? | Yes | 180 | 2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.60 | +$1.60 | |
| Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540? | Yes | 180 | 52¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$94 | $0 | |
| Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 171 | 31.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$54 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 31, 2026? | No | 150 | 18¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$27 | $0 | |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 8, 2026? | Yes | 150 | 31.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$47 | $0 | |
| Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 146 | 44.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$65 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 144 | 0¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| Will Alibaba be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 137 | 12.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$17 | $0 | |
| Will Moonshot be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 133 | 1.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.60 | $0 | |