sharpside
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Traders/Rank #3,865

Monopoly_Money

0x7ea…79ac
WhaleWR 70+WR 60+1y+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$102kvol $5.39M
PnL 30d−$2,562gains $810 · losses $0
PnL 7d+$881win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate78.5%adj 76.3% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$245kcash n/a
Positions74 / 312open / all-time
Max drawdown−56.9%of equity peak
Account age2.7ylast trade 1d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$103kbelow peak −$18.1kOct 8

SharpScore inputs

48/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 78.5% · shrunk toward 50%91
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable83
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d96
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity43

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? · Noclosed+$44.1kWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? · Yesclosed+$40.9kRecord turnout in 2024 Presidential election? · Noclosed+$34.7kWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? · Yesclosed+$30.3k2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yesopen+$24.3k

Worst markets

Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? · Yesclosed−$191kUS military action against Iran by Sunday? · Noclosed−$48.1k2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Noopen−$24.5kRussia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? · Yesopen−$21.6kWill Doug Burgum win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? · Yesclosed−$21.1k

Open positions · 74

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes180k50¢63.5¢$114k+$24.3k$0
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseNo136k50¢36.5¢$49.5k−$18.3k−$6,180
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes161k24.3¢19.9¢$32.0k−$7,113+$449
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes63.7k19.6¢17.8¢$11.4k−$1,138$0
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No8,10092¢90.5¢$7,331−$122$0
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No20.1k39.5¢35.5¢$7,135−$809$0
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?No4,80775.2¢96¢$4,612+$995+$532
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes17.3k45.4¢25.5¢$4,405−$3,440+$192
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?No5,00052¢84.5¢$4,225+$1,625$0
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?No2,50033¢92.5¢$2,312+$1,488$0
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?No2,00062.5¢95.5¢$1,910+$660$0
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes35.0k4.1¢5.1¢$1,770+$322$0
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No1,40064.8¢94.5¢$1,323+$416$0
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No1,00078¢97.2¢$972+$192$0
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No80080.5¢97.9¢$783+$139$0
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?No51659.8¢94.5¢$487+$179$0
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes74532.9¢48.6¢$362+$117$0
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes5,0002¢2.8¢$138+$38$0
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No10087¢82.1¢$82−$4.95$0
US strike on Mexico by December 31?Yes1,00034.6¢3.7¢$37−$309$0
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes10045¢34.5¢$35−$11$0
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?No2983¢98.5¢$29+$4.56$0
Maduro guilty of all counts?No19¢66.5¢$0.73+$0.63$0
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?Yes76.0k18.9¢0¢$0−$14.4k−$94
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?Yes26.5k69.2¢0¢$0−$18.3k−$3,264
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?No16.2k54.5¢0¢$0−$8,829+$815
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No14.1k57.6¢0¢$0−$8,125$0
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?No10.0k56.5¢0¢$0−$5,650$0
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Yes7,28021.4¢0¢$0−$1,557+$243
US strike on Mexico by March 31?Yes6,40020.6¢0¢$0−$1,318$0
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Yes5,50069.6¢0¢$0−$3,830$0
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Yes4,00021.7¢0¢$0−$870$0
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?No3,71070.2¢0¢$0−$2,605$0
US strike on Mexico by January 31?Yes3,70010.3¢0¢$0−$380$0
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?No3,50055¢0¢$0−$1,925$0
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Yes3,00037¢0¢$0−$1,110$0
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?Yes3,0002.9¢0¢$0−$87+$0.20
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?Yes2,14582¢0¢$0−$1,760$0
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes1,71059.5¢0¢$0−$1,017$0
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?No1,70070.2¢0¢$0−$1,194$0
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?No1,33663.9¢0¢$0−$853−$5.88
Trump out as President in 2025?Yes1,2842.3¢0¢$0−$30$0
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?No1,2437.5¢0¢$0−$94+$3.68
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?Yes1,14243.2¢0¢$0−$493$0
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?No1,10091.3¢0¢$0−$1,004$0
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?No1,08061¢0¢$0−$659$0
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out?Yes1,00014¢0¢$0−$140$0
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16?Yes87630¢0¢$0−$263$0
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?No81557.7¢0¢$0−$470$0
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?No70051.4¢0¢$0−$360$0
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?No59678.5¢0¢$0−$468$0
Will Trump release more Epstein files by August 31?No57268¢0¢$0−$390$0
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026?Yes5049¢0¢$0−$45$0
Battle of the Sexes: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nick KyrgiosSabalenka50015.8¢0¢$0−$79$0
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?No50076¢0¢$0−$380$0
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?Yes4743.8¢0¢$0−$18$0
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?No40031.5¢0¢$0−$126$0
Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025?No30063¢0¢$0−$189$0
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Yes29414.7¢0¢$0−$43$0
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?Yes2348.7¢0¢$0−$20$0
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?No2001.8¢0¢$0−$3.50$0
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $8 million?No20040¢0¢$0−$80$0
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in December?No15098¢0¢$0−$147$0
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?No13877¢0¢$0−$106$0
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 million?No10056¢0¢$0−$56$0
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?No10029¢0¢$0−$29$0
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?No10050¢0¢$0−$50$0
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?Yes9923¢0¢$0−$23$0
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce engaged in 2025?No9656¢0¢$0−$54$0
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?Yes8197¢0¢$0−$78$0
Will TikTok be banned in 2025?Yes5028¢0¢$0−$14$0
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027?No2069¢0¢$0−$14$0
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 million?No1090¢0¢$0−$9.00$0
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31?Yes1053¢0¢$0−$5.30$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL No2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House35¢100$3579%48
BUY YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?3.1¢1,140$3579%48
BUY YesIran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?4¢100$4.0079%48
BUY YesIran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?3.8¢125$4.7379%48
BUY YesIran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?3.7¢125$4.6179%48
BUY YesTrump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?96.9¢5$4.8579%48
SELL NoFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?75¢1,159$86979%48
SELL NoClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?94¢10$9.4079%48
BUY NoClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?93¢10$9.3079%48
BUY NoClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?94¢100$9479%48
BUY YesNATO downs another Russian drone by September 15?23.7¢14$3.2779%48
BUY NoIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?84¢100$8479%48
BUY YesWill Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026?9¢504$4579%48
BUY Max HollowayUFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)74¢135$10079%48
SELL YesTrump signs housing bill by end of July?0.1¢1,075$1.4079%48
BUY YesTrump signs housing bill by end of July?2¢84$1.6879%48
BUY YesTrump signs housing bill by end of July?2.4¢961$2379%48
BUY YesWill Trump fly in original Air Force 1 again this month?11¢13$1.4579%48
SELL YesU.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? 15¢243$3779%48
BUY YesU.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? 14¢1,283$18079%48