PnL all-time+$8,178vol $470k
PnL 30d+$906gains $6,241 · losses $5,074
PnL 7d+$1,050win rate 7d 33.3%
Win rate78.9%adj 69.0% · 30d 69.6%
Open value$60.6kcash n/a
Positions7 / 45open / all-time
Max drawdown−37.9%of equity peak
Account age3molast trade 56m ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$11.0kbelow peak −$395Oct 9
SharpScore inputs
50/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale56
Adjusted win rateraw 78.9% · shrunk toward 50%73
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable55
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity62
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? · Noclosed+$2,981Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? · Noclosed+$1,348Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31? · Noclosed+$1,254Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? · Noopen+$1,068Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? · Noclosed+$1,041
Worst markets
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? · Yesclosed−$2,148Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2? · Noclosed−$899Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals · Atlanta Bravesclosed−$610Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31? · Yesclosed−$604San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds · San Diego Padresclosed−$550
Open positions · 7
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | No | 20.0k | 94.2¢ | 98.5¢ | $19.7k | +$840 | $0 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | No | 20.0k | 91¢ | 94.5¢ | $18.9k | +$700 | $0 | |
| Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? | No | 14.3k | 85¢ | 92.5¢ | $13.2k | +$1,068 | $0 | |
| Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31? | No | 4,285 | 85.7¢ | 89.5¢ | $3,835 | +$163 | $0 | |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31? | No | 3,264 | 99¢ | 98.6¢ | $3,218 | −$13 | $0 | |
| Houthis enter Aden by October 15, 2026? | No | 1,676 | 95¢ | 98.8¢ | $1,656 | +$64 | $0 | |
| Will US crude oil reserves fall to 240M by October 30, 2026? | No | 94 | 95.5¢ | 97.7¢ | $92 | +$2.06 | $0 |
Recent trades
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