| Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft? | Yes | 419 | 48¢ | 59¢ | $247 | +$46 | $0 | |
| Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 1.00 to 2.99 ft by November 30? | Yes | 694 | 23.5¢ | 28.5¢ | $198 | +$35 | +$38 | |
| Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30? | Yes | 471 | 18.8¢ | 20.5¢ | $97 | +$8.21 | +$24 | |
| Will Bank of America (BAC) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $1.5B? | No | 88 | 66.3¢ | 68¢ | $60 | +$1.48 | $0 | |
| Will the median home value in Miami be between $788,000 and $809,000 on December 31? | Yes | 223 | 17.6¢ | 23.8¢ | $53 | +$14 | $0 | |
| Will Seoul have 85mm or more of precipitation in October? | No | 55 | 62.6¢ | 70¢ | $39 | +$4.06 | $0 | |
| Will the median home value in the US be between $407,000 and $411,000 on December 31? | Yes | 90 | 23.8¢ | 38.5¢ | $35 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on November 30, 2026? | Yes | 165 | 17¢ | 16¢ | $26 | −$1.65 | $0 | |
| Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 3.00 ft or more by November 30? | No | 31 | 58.4¢ | 76.5¢ | $24 | +$5.69 | +$19 | |
| Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 3.00 to 3.99 ft by November 30? | Yes | 184 | 9.5¢ | 11.5¢ | $21 | +$3.70 | $0 | |
| Will Tanoa Sasraku win the Turner Prize 2026? | Yes | 55 | 6.5¢ | 37.5¢ | $21 | +$17 | $0 | |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 49 | 32.4¢ | 38¢ | $19 | +$2.72 | $0 | |
| Will Simeon Barclay win the Turner Prize 2026? | Yes | 55 | 6.5¢ | 33.5¢ | $18 | +$15 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on October 31, 2026? | Yes | 77 | 24¢ | 22.5¢ | $17 | −$1.15 | +$2.71 | |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 162 | 20.3¢ | 10.5¢ | $17 | −$16 | $0 | |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Yes | 232 | 19¢ | 5.9¢ | $14 | −$30 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI's frontier output token price be at or below $30 in 2026? | Yes | 36 | 37.8¢ | 37¢ | $13 | −$0.29 | +$46 | |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 35 | 31¢ | 35.5¢ | $12 | +$1.58 | +$6.80 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 13 | 58¢ | 87.5¢ | $11 | +$3.83 | $0 | |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | Yes | 77 | 16.4¢ | 14.5¢ | $11 | −$1.49 | −$0.81 | |
| Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $6.50 on November 30, 2026? | Yes | 50 | 18¢ | 22¢ | $11 | +$2.00 | $0 | |
| Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31? | Yes | 45 | 8¢ | 24¢ | $11 | +$7.18 | $0 | |
| Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 294 | 2.2¢ | 3.5¢ | $10 | +$3.56 | $0 | |
| Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | No | 115 | 48¢ | 8.5¢ | $9.78 | −$45 | $0 | |
| Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 44 | 13¢ | 19¢ | $8.36 | +$2.64 | $0 | |
| Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 122 | 5.9¢ | 6.6¢ | $8.04 | +$0.81 | $0 | |
| Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,083,000 and $1,104,000 on December 31? | Yes | 33 | 20¢ | 23¢ | $7.59 | +$0.99 | $0 | |
| Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | Yes | 20 | 27¢ | 36¢ | $7.20 | +$1.80 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 15 | 50.5¢ | 49.5¢ | $7.18 | −$0.14 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 41 | 38.9¢ | 15.5¢ | $6.41 | −$9.68 | −$23 | |
| Will the median home value in the US be between $403,000 and $407,000 on December 31? | Yes | 20 | 21¢ | 20¢ | $4.00 | −$0.20 | $0 | |
| Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | Yes | 42 | 31.6¢ | 5.8¢ | $2.42 | −$11 | $0 | |
| Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,062,000 and $1,083,000 on December 31? | Yes | 72 | 20.9¢ | 3.3¢ | $2.36 | −$13 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best Image Edit AI at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 33 | 5¢ | 4.8¢ | $1.58 | −$0.07 | $0 | |
| Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 45 | 5¢ | 3.2¢ | $1.44 | −$0.81 | $0 | |
| Will Kira Freije win the Turner Prize 2026? | Yes | 13 | 6.5¢ | 11¢ | $1.43 | +$0.58 | +$50 | |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 39 | 28¢ | 3.3¢ | $1.27 | −$9.67 | $0 | |
| Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 10 | 26¢ | 7.3¢ | $0.73 | −$1.87 | −$0.18 | |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 11 | 2.8¢ | 2¢ | $0.21 | −$0.09 | +$8.84 | |
| Will Timothée Chalamet be the #1 searched actor on Google this year? | Yes | 11 | 4¢ | 1.2¢ | $0.13 | −$0.31 | $0 | |
| Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 1,078 | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.41 | $0 | |
| Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026? | Yes | 302 | 38.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$116 | −$1.89 | |
| Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026? | Yes | 296 | 16.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$50 | +$0.84 | |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 271 | 6.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$18 | −$0.23 | |
| Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from September 1 to September 8, 2026? | Yes | 230 | 4.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$9.80 | +$6.84 | |
| Will OpenRouter process less than 155T tokens the week of September 28? | Yes | 228 | 16¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$37 | −$1.22 | |
| Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026? | Yes | 211 | 38.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$81 | +$2.58 | |
| Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | No | 200 | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.00 | $0 | |
| Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 193 | 9.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$18 | −$0.07 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 24, 2026? | Yes | 183 | 4.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$7.96 | +$1.78 | |
| Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 167 | 1.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.00 | +$8.59 | |
| Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | Yes | 125 | 21.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$26 | +$6.22 | |
| Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | No | 122 | 1.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.71 | $0 | |
| Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026? | Yes | 121 | 27¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$33 | +$13 | |
| Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 117 | 1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.17 | $0 | |
| Will NYC Mayor post 120-139 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026? | Yes | 111 | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$11 | −$0.06 | |
| Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026? | Yes | 111 | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$11 | −$0.06 | |
| Will NYC Mayor post 180-199 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026? | Yes | 111 | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$11 | −$0.06 | |
| Will NYC Mayor post 100-119 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026? | Yes | 111 | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$11 | −$0.06 | |
| Will NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026? | Yes | 111 | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$11 | −$0.06 | |
| Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026? | Yes | 111 | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$11 | −$0.06 | |
| Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | No | 111 | 3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.33 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 109 | 12.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$14 | +$1.91 | |
| Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | Yes | 108 | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$11 | −$0.06 | |
| Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | Yes | 108 | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$11 | −$0.06 | |
| Will NYC Mayor post 100-119 posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | Yes | 108 | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$11 | −$0.06 | |
| Will NYC Mayor post 120-139 posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | Yes | 108 | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$11 | −$0.06 | |
| Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | Yes | 108 | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$11 | −$0.06 | |
| Will NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | Yes | 108 | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$11 | −$0.06 | |
| Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | Yes | 108 | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$11 | −$0.06 | |
| Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | Yes | 108 | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$11 | −$0.06 | |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 104 | 8.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$8.95 | −$0.04 | |
| Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | No | 97 | 1.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.35 | $0 | |
| Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 17.5 and 20 million views on day 1? | No | 92 | 13.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$12 | −$0.11 | |
| Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 88 | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.75 | $0 | |
| Will Iran Play in the World Cup? | No | 88 | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.89 | −$0.21 | |
| Will NYC Mayor post 120-139 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? | Yes | 80 | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$7.99 | −$0.04 | |
| Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? | Yes | 80 | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$7.99 | −$0.04 | |
| Will NYC Mayor post 180-199 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? | Yes | 80 | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$7.99 | −$0.04 | |
| Will NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? | Yes | 80 | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$7.99 | −$0.04 | |
| Will NYC Mayor post 100-119 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? | Yes | 80 | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$7.99 | −$0.04 | |
| Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? | Yes | 80 | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$7.99 | −$0.04 | |
| Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? | Yes | 80 | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$7.99 | −$0.04 | |
| Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | Yes | 79 | 16.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$13 | −$0.23 | |
| Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026? | Yes | 78 | 27.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$22 | −$0.79 | |
| Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | Yes | 77 | 1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.77 | $0 | |
| Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from September 1 to September 8, 2026? | No | 73 | 8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.84 | −$0.30 | |
| Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026? | Yes | 72 | 41.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$30 | −$9.64 | |
| Will Google have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28? | Yes | 70 | 4.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.20 | −$0.12 | |
| Will NYC have more than 6 inches of precipitation in September? | Yes | 68 | 14.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10 | −$0.16 | |
| Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from August 25 to September 1, 2026? | Yes | 67 | 3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.00 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on August 31, 2026? | Yes | 66 | 7.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.19 | −$0.22 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 5 and October 11, 2026? | Yes | 66 | 6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.96 | $0 | |
| Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | Yes | 60 | 2.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.41 | −$0.06 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026? | No | 56 | 69.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$39 | −$0.40 | |
| Will NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? | Yes | 55 | 11.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$6.29 | −$0.10 | |
| Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? | Yes | 55 | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.49 | +$4.18 | |
| Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | Yes | 55 | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.16 | $0 | |
| Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | Yes | 55 | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.27 | $0 | |
| Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from September 1 to September 8, 2026? | Yes | 50 | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.01 | −$0.25 | |