| US recession by end of 2026? | No | 7,000 | 74.4¢ | 92.5¢ | $6,475 | +$1,270 | +$732 | |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 6,314 | 78.4¢ | 79¢ | $4,988 | +$39 | −$36 | |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? | No | 5,109 | 78.5¢ | 96.5¢ | $4,928 | +$915 | +$154 | |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? | No | 3,752 | 87.7¢ | 98.1¢ | $3,681 | +$389 | +$2.69 | |
| Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | No | 5,500 | 40.2¢ | 38¢ | $2,090 | −$121 | +$44 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | No | 2,672 | 72¢ | 71.5¢ | $1,911 | −$13 | −$1,001 | |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? | No | 1,900 | 77.4¢ | 97.2¢ | $1,847 | +$376 | +$34 | |
| Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? | Yes | 8,124 | 15.5¢ | 20.5¢ | $1,665 | +$404 | +$854 | |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 2,107 | 65.6¢ | 71.6¢ | $1,508 | +$125 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? | Yes | 1,950 | 78.6¢ | 75.9¢ | $1,481 | −$52 | +$87 | |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate? | No | 1,053 | 93¢ | 93.6¢ | $985 | +$5.79 | +$3.13 | |
| Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? | No | 2,263 | 38.4¢ | 43.5¢ | $984 | +$116 | $0 | |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026? | No | 1,000 | 75.8¢ | 98.4¢ | $984 | +$226 | +$23 | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 1,050 | 78¢ | 90.5¢ | $950 | +$131 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027? | No | 969 | 94.3¢ | 95.5¢ | $925 | +$11 | $0 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 1,000 | 78¢ | 89.5¢ | $895 | +$115 | +$60 | |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? | No | 900 | 37.4¢ | 97.3¢ | $876 | +$540 | +$198 | |
| Will Swim – BTS be the top song for 2026? | No | 800 | 54.2¢ | 99.9¢ | $799 | +$366 | +$112 | |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5,050 | 29.6¢ | 15.5¢ | $780 | −$713 | +$121 | |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 20.0k | 3.9¢ | 3.5¢ | $690 | −$94 | −$2.57 | |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? | No | 750 | 60.5¢ | 89.8¢ | $674 | +$220 | +$54 | |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027? | No | 604 | 95.4¢ | 97.9¢ | $591 | +$15 | $0 | |
| Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | Yes | 6,500 | 7.8¢ | 6.5¢ | $423 | −$82 | $0 | |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? | Yes | 587 | 54.2¢ | 67.5¢ | $396 | +$78 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027? | No | 400 | 94.9¢ | 98.5¢ | $394 | +$14 | $0 | |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026? | Yes | 343 | 30.7¢ | 97.2¢ | $333 | +$228 | $0 | |
| Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 29.7k | 1¢ | 1.1¢ | $312 | +$22 | +$18 | |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate? | Yes | 1,000 | 31.2¢ | 31.2¢ | $311 | −$1.00 | $0 | |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 600 | 57.1¢ | 51.6¢ | $309 | −$33 | +$215 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 275 | 62¢ | 94.5¢ | $260 | +$90 | +$6.74 | |
| US recession by end of 2027? | No | 384 | 61.6¢ | 67¢ | $257 | +$21 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)? | No | 560 | 32.7¢ | 45.4¢ | $254 | +$71 | +$11 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | No | 490 | 42.3¢ | 46.5¢ | $228 | +$21 | +$13 | |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026? | No | 243 | 78.9¢ | 91.5¢ | $222 | +$31 | −$0.17 | |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | Yes | 1,200 | 37.8¢ | 17¢ | $204 | −$250 | $0 | |
| Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027? | No | 200 | 87¢ | 96¢ | $192 | +$18 | $0 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? | Yes | 749 | 23¢ | 22.5¢ | $169 | −$3.75 | −$1,648 | |
| Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | Yes | 1,360 | 11.2¢ | 11¢ | $150 | −$2.73 | −$29 | |
| Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | No | 460 | 43.9¢ | 30¢ | $138 | −$64 | −$5.57 | |
| Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | Yes | 1,500 | 18¢ | 7.8¢ | $117 | −$153 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | No | 150 | 74¢ | 77¢ | $116 | +$4.50 | $0 | |
| Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? | Yes | 1,330 | 17.8¢ | 8.5¢ | $113 | −$123 | +$43 | |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 16.0k | 3.6¢ | 0.7¢ | $104 | −$470 | −$4.01 | |
| Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | No | 100 | 84¢ | 98.1¢ | $98 | +$14 | $0 | |
| Will Ezra Frech win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35? | No | 202 | 43¢ | 44.5¢ | $90 | +$3.04 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? | No | 83 | 71¢ | 73.1¢ | $61 | +$1.74 | $0 | |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes | 1,000 | 16.8¢ | 5.5¢ | $55 | −$113 | −$60 | |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in September? | Yes | 500 | 10¢ | 9¢ | $45 | −$5.00 | $0 | |
| Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in September? | Yes | 118 | 18¢ | 35.5¢ | $42 | +$21 | $0 | |
| Negative GDP growth in 2026? | No | 38 | 82¢ | 98¢ | $37 | +$6.05 | $0 | |
| Will Bad Bunny be the #2 searched person on Google this year? | Yes | 195 | 21¢ | 18.5¢ | $36 | −$4.82 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? | Yes | 236 | 11.8¢ | 13.5¢ | $32 | +$4.10 | $0 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? | Yes | 50 | 61¢ | 63.5¢ | $32 | +$1.25 | −$41 | |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | Yes | 500 | 21¢ | 5.5¢ | $28 | −$78 | +$22 | |
| Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026? | No | 125 | 72.5¢ | 21.2¢ | $27 | −$64 | $0 | |
| Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026? | Yes | 207 | 4.9¢ | 12.5¢ | $26 | +$16 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? | Yes | 83 | 37¢ | 29.9¢ | $25 | −$5.93 | $0 | |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5,500 | 0.8¢ | 0.5¢ | $25 | −$19 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027? | No | 25 | 94.6¢ | 98.5¢ | $25 | +$0.96 | $0 | |
| Will Tyreek Hill sign with the Kansas City Chiefs in 2026? | Yes | 52 | 42¢ | 44¢ | $23 | +$1.03 | $0 | |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the December 2026 meeting? | Yes | 102 | 32.3¢ | 19.5¢ | $20 | −$13 | −$18 | |
| Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31? | Yes | 750 | 12¢ | 2.5¢ | $19 | −$71 | $0 | |
| Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027? | Yes | 19 | 52¢ | 89.5¢ | $17 | +$7.04 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? | Yes | 50 | 47¢ | 32.5¢ | $16 | −$7.19 | −$71 | |
| Kash Patel out by December 31? | Yes | 75 | 62¢ | 20.5¢ | $15 | −$31 | $0 | |
| Will Blackstone (BX) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 36 | 37¢ | 39.5¢ | $14 | +$0.90 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | Yes | 241 | 2.5¢ | 5.5¢ | $13 | +$7.22 | +$185 | |
| Romanian PM Bolojan out by October 31? | No | 21 | 68¢ | 39¢ | $8.19 | −$6.09 | $0 | |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 2,458 | 1.1¢ | 0.3¢ | $6.14 | −$21 | $0 | |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026? | Yes | 296 | 21.5¢ | 1.5¢ | $4.29 | −$59 | −$0.12 | |
| Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 1,075 | 14.2¢ | 0.3¢ | $3.23 | −$150 | $0 | |
| OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize Solution? | Anthropic | 15 | 50¢ | 21.5¢ | $3.23 | −$4.28 | $0 | |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026? | Yes | 1,074 | 3.5¢ | 0.3¢ | $2.68 | −$35 | −$4.19 | |
| Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms? | Yes | 28 | 12¢ | 9.3¢ | $2.59 | −$0.77 | $0 | |
| Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 1,500 | 0.6¢ | 0.2¢ | $2.25 | −$6.75 | $0 | |
| Will Payward announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 12 | 15¢ | 14.5¢ | $1.71 | −$0.06 | $0 | |
| Will over 55 Senators vote for the Clarity Act? | Yes | 23 | 34.9¢ | 6.5¢ | $1.46 | −$6.39 | −$54 | |
| Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? | Yes | 1 | 31¢ | 62.5¢ | $0.91 | +$0.46 | $0 | |
| Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? | Yes | 57 | 10¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.51 | −$5.19 | $0 | |
| Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms? | Yes | 26 | 9¢ | 1.8¢ | $0.46 | −$1.89 | $0 | |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in September? | Yes | 5 | 1¢ | 5.7¢ | $0.28 | +$0.23 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | Yes | 12 | 4¢ | 2¢ | $0.24 | −$0.25 | $0 | |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? | Yes | 26 | 40.9¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.24 | −$11 | +$89 | |
| Will Billie Jean – Michael Jackson be the top song for 2026? | Yes | 115 | 2.4¢ | 0.1¢ | $0.06 | −$2.70 | $0 | |
| Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | Yes | 26.7k | 5.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,485 | −$254 | |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026? | No | 11.0k | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$54 | +$19 | |
| Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? | Yes | 10.7k | 21.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,268 | +$4.44 | |
| Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 8,458 | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$42 | $0 | |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 8,232 | 15.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,273 | −$1,746 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 8,200 | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$57 | +$0.12 | |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17? | No | 8,071 | 45.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,683 | +$134 | |
| Israel strikes Gaza by October 17? | No | 7,305 | 31.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,296 | +$88 | |
| Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 6,223 | 1.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$119 | −$841 | |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Yes | 6,079 | 49.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,004 | −$189 | |
| Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | Yes | 4,825 | 58.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,843 | −$0.42 | |
| Nothing Ever Happens: November | No | 4,400 | 14.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$646 | +$537 | |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in December? | Yes | 4,000 | 20¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$802 | $0 | |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 4,000 | 14.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$597 | −$190 | |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in December? | Yes | 4,000 | 3.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$135 | $0 | |
| Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 15, 2026? | No | 3,976 | 31.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,260 | −$2.84 | |