sharpside
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Traders/Rank #1,825

rewardbots

0x876…1703
PnL 50k+PnL 10k+OtherPolitics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$59.0kvol $3.88M
PnL 30d+$23.5kgains $34.6k · losses $14.8k
PnL 7d+$554win rate 7d 75.0%
Win rate49.1%adj 49.1% · 30d 54.5%
Open value$26.5kcash n/a
Positions58 / 557open / all-time
Max drawdown−13.4%of equity peak
Account age3molast trade 6h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$70.8kbelow peak −$495Oct 9

SharpScore inputs

66/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale68
Adjusted win rateraw 49.1% · shrunk toward 50%23
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable92
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity87

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026? · Noclosed+$9,266Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yesopen+$6,777Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480? · Noclosed+$5,462Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026? · Noclosed+$5,422Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026? · Noclosed+$5,003

Worst markets

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? · Yesclosed−$3,991Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026? · Noclosed−$3,123Will GPT-6 be released by October 31, 2026? · Noclosed−$2,716Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026? · Yesclosed−$2,511Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? · Yesclosed−$1,782

Open positions · 58

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes7,50936.9¢43¢$3,229+$458+$53
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?No7,06537.8¢31¢$2,190−$480+$746
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026?No2,13089.2¢97¢$2,066+$166+$119
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Yes10.0k21.7¢20.5¢$2,050−$119−$454
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?No7,04513.6¢23.5¢$1,656+$697+$1,364
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes2,53548¢56.6¢$1,433+$217+$116
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes1,89547.9¢69.7¢$1,321+$413+$6,364
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Yes2,34654.5¢51.5¢$1,208−$71$0
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?No1,27367.9¢85.5¢$1,088+$224+$1.35
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?No4,81513¢22.5¢$1,083+$458$0
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?Yes5,61221¢12¢$673−$505−$50
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)?Yes4,5059.9¢14.7¢$660+$214$0
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?Yes71522.2¢88¢$629+$471+$94
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes1,19655¢50¢$598−$60$0
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?Yes2,82718.6¢14.5¢$410−$117$0
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Yes3,62241.1¢10.5¢$380−$1,108+$130
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?No1,55141¢23.5¢$364−$271+$30
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?No80430.8¢41.5¢$334+$86$0
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?No49929.6¢63.9¢$319+$171$0
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?No2,73221.2¢11¢$300−$278+$97
OpenAI resumes training by October 15, 2026?No37358.2¢80.5¢$300+$83$0
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?Yes1,01031.5¢28.2¢$284−$34$0
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes62619.9¢43.9¢$275+$150+$319
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Yes87634.4¢29.5¢$258−$43$0
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?No41630¢61.3¢$255+$130$0
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?Yes1,10311¢22.8¢$251+$130$0
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize Solution?OpenAI30849.4¢78.5¢$242+$90+$21
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?Yes2,37525.6¢9¢$214−$395$0
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Yes58431.4¢36.2¢$211+$28$0
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Yes6,17618.6¢3.2¢$198−$949−$66
OpenAI resumes training by October 31, 2026?No65025.9¢30¢$195+$27$0
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?Yes19815¢89¢$176+$146+$382
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?No1,00020¢14¢$140−$60$0
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?No15480.9¢87.5¢$135+$10−$65
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes25653.2¢48.9¢$125−$11−$28
Will DeepSeek IPO by March 31, 2027?Yes88824.5¢13¢$115−$102$0
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes9,2051.5¢1.3¢$115−$24$0
Will DeepSeek IPO by September 30, 2027?Yes17373.2¢65¢$112−$14$0
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Yes27346.8¢41¢$112−$16$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Yes1,00014¢10.5¢$105−$35$0
Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?No10868.6¢90.6¢$98+$24$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?No2,00010¢4.8¢$96−$104$0
Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?Yes57527.8¢15.5¢$89−$71$0
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?Yes8147.2¢7.5¢$61+$2.57$0
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15?Yes8639.8¢6¢$52−$33$0
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Yes97617.3¢5¢$49−$120+$7.47
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?Yes72311.2¢6.5¢$47−$34$0
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Yes3,5006¢1.2¢$40−$170$0
Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Yes7,2507.4¢0.5¢$33−$501−$61
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?No33822.7¢7.5¢$25−$51$0
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?Yes50010.1¢4.5¢$23−$28$0
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes34.4k0.1¢0.1¢$17−$17$0
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?No1773.7¢96.5¢$16+$3.81+$27
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes10320.3¢13.5¢$14−$6.99$0
Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?No44011.5¢1.5¢$6.38−$44$0
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?Yes1152.6¢54.5¢$6.22+$0.21−$113
Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?No27625.4¢0¢$0−$70$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?No23413¢0¢$0−$30$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?0.1¢34.4k$3449%66
BUY YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?22¢5,000$1,10049%66
BUY YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?21.4¢5,000$1,06949%66
SELL NoNext Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?86¢265$22849%66
SELL NoNext Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026?94.1¢1,086$1,02249%66
SELL NoWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?22.6¢3,700$83549%66
BUY YesWill a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?15.5¢1,500$23349%66
SELL YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?19¢6,000$1,14049%66
BUY NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?10¢2,000$20049%66
BUY YesWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?11.7¢89$1049%66
BUY YesWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?10.7¢428$4649%66
BUY YesWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?21¢5,612$1,17949%66
BUY NoWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?21.2¢6,432$1,36249%66
BUY UpBitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET51.2¢800$40949%66
BUY NoGemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?31.7¢601$19049%66
BUY NoGemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?68.6¢108$7449%66
BUY NoGemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?28¢204$5749%66
SELL YesWill Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?69.1¢2,564$1,77249%66
SELL YesWill Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?67.5¢650$43949%66
SELL YesGemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?76.9¢610$46949%66