sharpside
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Traders/Rank #2,450

h038596027355

0x88b…3cff
PnL 10k+WR 80+WR 70+WR 60+1y+PoliticsOtherCulture
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$15.2kvol $3.81M
PnL 30d+$2,126gains $2,739 · losses $1,069
PnL 7d+$1,847win rate 7d 94.1%
Win rate81.4%adj 80.2% · 30d 83.8%
Open value$29.1kcash n/a
Positions71 / 770open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age2.1ylast trade 5h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$15.3kbelow peak −$2,186Oct 8

SharpScore inputs

60/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale60
Adjusted win rateraw 81.4% · shrunk toward 50%100
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable96
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22? · Yesclosed+$5,952Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? · Noclosed+$4,445Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 15? · Noclosed+$3,715Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? · Noclosed+$3,330Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? · Yesclosed+$2,442

Worst markets

Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? · Noclosed−$7,746Epstein blackmail evidence released in 2025? · Noclosed−$3,031Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? · Yesclosed−$2,078Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15? · Yesclosed−$2,043Will Trump attend his son's wedding? · Yesopen−$1,795

Open positions · 71

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by December 31, 2027?No5,68486.6¢89.5¢$5,087+$164+$9.94
Anthropic lab leak by December 31, 2026?No2,63196¢97.3¢$2,559+$32+$9.63
Taylor & Travis divorce in 2026?No2,50698.3¢97.6¢$2,446−$18$0
Will any former NBA player be drafted in the 2027 WNBA Draft?No1,60895¢95.3¢$1,532+$5.08+$1.12
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No4,05651.1¢35.5¢$1,440−$631$0
Will Philadelphia Eagles win the 2026 NFC East?No1,94361.3¢68¢$1,321+$130+$24
Will Taylor Swift release "Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version)" in 2026?No2,04850.9¢56¢$1,147+$104+$5.33
Will the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by November 30?No1,21593.9¢93.5¢$1,136−$4.83+$3.24
Will the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by December 31?No1,16789.1¢92¢$1,074+$34+$7.79
Will AI solve the Riemann Hypothesis in 2026?No1,11389¢93¢$1,035+$44+$16
Will Saquon Barkley finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most rushing yards?No1,00094.9¢97.8¢$977+$29+$1.92
New pandemic in 2026?No85991.8¢95.5¢$820+$31+$114
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?No74989.1¢97.5¢$730+$63+$1,516
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-08 House seat?No81087.9¢88.5¢$717+$5.05+$8.15
Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by December 31, 2026?No60996.2¢98.3¢$599+$13+$36
Will Venezuela become 51st state?No52097.7¢97.9¢$509+$0.78+$382
Will Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race?No71970.8¢70.5¢$507−$1.84$0
Anthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027?No48391.6¢90¢$435−$7.83+$45
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?Yes50088¢78¢$390−$50$0
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?No38856.5¢92¢$357+$138$0
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Yes44478.7¢74¢$329−$21+$48
Will AI solve the twin prime conjecture in 2026?No35685.1¢91.5¢$325+$23+$5.78
New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?No33794.8¢95.8¢$322+$3.24+$61
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?No1,00031.3¢30.5¢$305−$7.65$0
Will Saquon Barkley have 1,499.5+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?No31891.3¢94¢$299+$8.49+$7.00
Will "Avengers: Doomsday" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?No38173.5¢74.5¢$284+$3.77$0
Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?No24190.9¢99.6¢$239+$21+$108
Will Makai Lemon win the 2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season?No22995.8¢96.1¢$220+$0.48$0
Will "Avengers: Doomsday" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?No95321¢22.5¢$214+$14+$3.73
Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027?No23287¢90¢$209+$7.03+$3.21
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?No31269¢64.5¢$201−$14+$408
US plague travel ban on Russia in 2026?No20090.6¢91.5¢$183+$1.80$0
Will "Street Fighter" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?No18994¢91.5¢$173−$4.73$0
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?No13097¢98¢$127+$1.24−$0.06
Will SI.gov launch by October 15?No20270¢57¢$115−$26$0
Will Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?No12095.4¢93.9¢$113−$1.86$0
Will AI solve the strong Goldbach conjecture in 2026?No12284.7¢90.5¢$111+$7.14+$17
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?No7896.7¢98.2¢$77+$1.15+$11
Will SI.gov launch by October 31?No40826¢18.5¢$75−$31$0
Will "Avengers: Doomsday" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?No6191.4¢92.5¢$57+$0.65+$0.08
Will Devonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most receiving yards?No5597.6¢97.4¢$54−$0.12$0
Will any player break the NFL single-season interceptions record in the 2026-27 season?No5597.6¢96.7¢$53−$0.50+$0.40
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win more than 10.5 games in the 2026 NFL Regular Season?U 10.55869¢72¢$42+$1.73$0
OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?No4397¢93.5¢$41−$1.52$0
Clavicular and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez confirm relationship in 2026?No3997¢97.7¢$38+$0.27+$1.55
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?No3192.4¢92.7¢$28+$0.10+$15
Will AI solve P versus NP in 2026?No2594.1¢95.4¢$24+$0.32+$2.53
Will Jalen Hurts win the 2026 NFL MVP?No1594¢98.8¢$15+$0.72+$5.63
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?No1690.2¢90.3¢$14+$0.01+$16
Will Banksy create a new mural or street artwork by December 31?No2417.5¢53.5¢$13+$8.82$0
Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?Yes1086¢98.2¢$9.82+$1.22+$12
Will Saquon Barkley win the 2026 NFL MVP?Yes3,2370.8¢0.3¢$8.09−$19+$1.24
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Yes3526¢16¢$5.60−$3.50+$214
Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2026?No380¢96¢$2.52+$0.42+$1.34
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?Yes2050.7¢12.5¢$2.50−$7.62+$1.69
Will Saquon Barkley finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage touchdowns?No195¢88.9¢$0.89−$0.06+$6.47
Will Olivia Rodrigo release a new original album by August 31?No3,76318.4¢0¢$0−$691−$110
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Yes3,00055.5¢0¢$0−$1,665−$30
Will Trump attend his son's wedding?Yes2,95360.5¢0¢$0−$1,785−$9.50
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?No2,2319.2¢0¢$0−$206−$7.24
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?No2,0464.5¢0¢$0−$92−$4.39
Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?No1,8542.1¢0¢$0−$38$0
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?No1,06712.8¢0¢$0−$137−$5.06
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?Yes1,03872.2¢0¢$0−$750−$6.83
Will Jason Kelce be a groomsman at Taylor Swift's wedding?No6027.1¢0¢$0−$43−$1.26
Will Travis Kelce retire before next season?Yes5092¢0¢$0−$10−$492
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes46021.6¢0¢$0−$99−$3.89
Eagles vs. BearsEagles2500.4¢0¢$0−$1.00−$125
Eagles vs. TitansTitans20036.5¢0¢$0−$73$0
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?No20038¢0¢$0−$76$0
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07?No5038¢0¢$0−$19−$0.35

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by December 31, 2027?88¢3,142$2,76581%60
BUY NoWill the Democratic Party win the AZ-08 House seat?87.9¢1,796$1,57881%60
BUY NoWill Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?31.3¢500$15781%60
BUY NoWill Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?31.2¢500$15681%60
BUY NoWill SI.gov launch by October 15?70¢202$14181%60
BUY NoWill "Street Fighter" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?94¢189$17881%60
BUY NoUS plague travel ban on Russia in 2026?90.6¢200$18181%60
BUY NoWill Michele Parrinello win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?87¢96$8481%60
BUY NoWill David Liu win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?88¢100$8881%60
SELL NoWill Shankar Balasubramanian win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?80¢153$12381%60
BUY NoWill any former NBA player be drafted in the 2027 WNBA Draft?93.5¢41$3881%60
BUY NoWill David Allara win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?86¢558$48081%60
BUY NoWill David Liu win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?87¢100$8781%60
BUY NoWill Harry Gray win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?85¢283$24181%60
SELL NoWill Shankar Balasubramanian win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?81.1¢450$36481%60
BUY NoWill the Philadelphia Eagles make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?53¢200$10681%60
BUY NoWill Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?95.4¢120$11581%60
BUY U 10.5Will the Philadelphia Eagles win more than 10.5 games in the 2026 NFL Regular Season?69¢58$4081%60
BUY NoWill Philadelphia Eagles win the 2026 NFC East?62.4¢369$23081%60
BUY NoWill Chi-Huey Wong win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?87¢68$5981%60