sharpside
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Traders/Unranked

g128

0x88d…5762
WR 70+WR 60+1y+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$29vol $176k
PnL 30d+$323gains $157 · losses $8.51
PnL 7d−$14win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate73.0%adj 70.5% · 30d 75.0%
Open value$3,187cash n/a
Positions80 / 246open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age1.9ylast trade 12h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$367below peak −$139Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

45/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 73.0% · shrunk toward 50%76
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable80
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d98
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 80

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes2,77730.7¢38.5¢$1,069+$217+$24
Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?Yes2,82321.7¢22.5¢$635+$22$0
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes10.9k2.3¢2.8¢$299+$47+$9.80
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes96325.7¢27.5¢$265+$17$0
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Yes34053.6¢61.5¢$209+$27$0
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes90514.9¢15.5¢$140+$5.20$0
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No22450.5¢62.5¢$140+$27$0
Will Democrats win the Texas, Michigan, and Maine Senate seats?Yes25044¢51.5¢$129+$19$0
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?No23842¢41.5¢$99−$1.19$0
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Yes25021¢21¢$53$0$0
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?No3757¢9.5¢$36+$9.37$0
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?No17119.5¢20.5¢$35+$1.63$0
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?No18615¢15.5¢$29+$0.93$0
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes20.0k0.1¢0.1¢$10−$9.98$0
Will Cory Booker be the next Senate Majority Leader?Yes2591.2¢2.5¢$6.33+$3.23$0
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?Yes575¢96.3¢$4.81+$1.06$0
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Yes119¢38.5¢$4.31+$3.30$0
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No563¢84.6¢$4.23+$1.08$0
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?No1121¢38¢$4.18+$1.87$0
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?Yes4012¢9.5¢$3.80−$1.00$0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo365¢91.5¢$2.61+$0.76$0
Will Alaska be the closest Senate race in 2026?Yes691¢3.2¢$2.22+$1.52$0
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes462.2¢4.6¢$2.09+$1.08$0
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes503.4¢2.5¢$1.22−$0.47$0
Will Louisiana be the closest Senate race in 2026?Yes430.2¢2.7¢$1.15+$1.06$0
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes1002.1¢1¢$1.00−$1.10$0
Will South Dakota be the closest Senate race in 2026?Yes190.2¢3.2¢$0.61+$0.57$0
Will Nebraska be the closest Senate race in 2026?Yes100.3¢3.9¢$0.39+$0.36$0
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes2000.7¢0.2¢$0.30−$1.10$0
Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 30-40%?Yes3,0243.1¢0¢$0−$92+$6.63
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?Yes84129.9¢0¢$0−$252−$1.97
Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?Yes67015.6¢0¢$0−$104$0
Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Yes5001.9¢0¢$0−$9.50$0
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting?Yes4000.7¢0¢$0−$3.00$0
Trump renames Department of Defense by September 30?No39841.1¢0¢$0−$164$0
Larger Margin of Victory: Mamdani vs Prop 50?Proposition 5033995.1¢0¢$0−$323$0
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Yes3008¢0¢$0−$24$0
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting?Yes3000.3¢0¢$0−$0.90$0
Will the SPD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?Yes29516¢0¢$0−$47$0
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?No26035.9¢0¢$0−$93$0
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?No23544.5¢0¢$0−$105$0
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?No22529.9¢0¢$0−$67$0
Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech?Yes22020.3¢0¢$0−$45$0
Will Kash Patel be Trump's FBI director?No20034.1¢0¢$0−$68$0
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30?No20014.5¢0¢$0−$29$0
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany?Yes1950.2¢0¢$0−$0.39$0
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting?Yes1807.7¢0¢$0−$14−$3.90
Another Trump Cabinet nominee withdrawn before inauguration?Yes18045.1¢0¢$0−$81$0
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Yes17034.8¢0¢$0−$59$0
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31?No10071¢0¢$0−$71$0
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?No10011¢0¢$0−$11$0
North Korea missile test by August 31?No9086.3¢0¢$0−$78$0
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by October 31?No8285.4¢0¢$0−$70$0
Will Ben Wikler be the next DNC chair?Yes8025¢0¢$0−$20$0
Will Daniel Cameron be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?Yes7631.1¢0¢$0−$24$0
Will Russia capture Yampil' by November 30?No7279.3¢0¢$0−$57$0
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?No7042.7¢0¢$0−$30$0
Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election?Yes7035.6¢0¢$0−$25$0
Will reconciliation bill be passed by August 31? No646.5¢0¢$0−$4.16−$0.38
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes6042¢0¢$0−$25+$2.88
Will Trump not sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill by November 29?Yes531.9¢0¢$0−$1.01$0
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19?No5080¢0¢$0−$40$0
Will Russia capture Ivanopillya by November 30?No5045¢0¢$0−$23$0
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?Yes402.9¢0¢$0−$1.16$0
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?Yes4055.6¢0¢$0−$22$0
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?No3082¢0¢$0−$25$0
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?Yes305.6¢0¢$0−$1.68−$1.57
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET?No2659¢0¢$0−$15$0
Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey?No2011.9¢0¢$0−$2.38$0
Will the Government shutdown end by December 31?No204.5¢0¢$0−$0.89−$1.59
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech? Yes2051¢0¢$0−$10$0
Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days?No1952¢0¢$0−$9.87$0
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 5?No1839¢0¢$0−$7.09−$1.50
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?No1758¢0¢$0−$9.86$0
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?No1568¢0¢$0−$10$0
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?Yes1168¢0¢$0−$7.48$0
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be greater than 2%?No1038.5¢0¢$0−$3.85−$1.70
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals?Yes915.7¢0¢$0−$1.41+$0.69
Liberals win majority in Canadian election?Yes80.8¢0¢$0−$0.07−$457
Will Randy Fine win by less than 10%?Yes159.4¢0¢$0−$0.81−$103

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?39¢300$11773%45
BUY YesWill Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?21.7¢40$8.6873%45
BUY YesWill Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?22.2¢79$1873%45
BUY YesWill John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?0.1¢10.0k$1073%45
BUY YesWill John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?0.1¢10.0k$1073%45
BUY YesWill the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?15¢494$7473%45
BUY YesWill the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?15¢400$6073%45
BUY NoWill the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?15¢186$2873%45
BUY YesWill Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?22.1¢100$2273%45
BUY YesWill Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?22¢160$3573%45
BUY YesWill Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?22¢261$5773%45
BUY YesWill Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?23.3¢20$4.6673%45
BUY YesWill Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?23.2¢166$3973%45
BUY YesWill Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?22.3¢166$3773%45
BUY YesWill Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?22.9¢136$3173%45
BUY YesWill Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?22.9¢5$1.1573%45
BUY YesWill Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?23.5¢20$4.7073%45
BUY YesWill Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?23.4¢10$2.3473%45
BUY YesWill Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?23.2¢30$6.9673%45
BUY YesWill Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?23.4¢10$2.3473%45